Holt-Winters’ Multiplicative

Is similar to the Holt-Winters’ additive method. Holt-Winters’ Multiplicative method also calculates exponentially smoothed values for level, trend, and seasonal adjustment to the forecast. This method's equations can also be found in the Oracle Crystal Ball Statistical Guide. This seasonal multiplicative method multiplies the trended forecast by the seasonality, producing the Holt-Winters’ multiplicative forecast.

This method is best for data with trend and with seasonality that increases over time. It results in a curved forecast that reproduces the seasonal changes in the data.

Figure 36. Typical Holt-Winters’ Multiplicative Data, Fit, and Forecast Curve

A chart where the data, fit, and forecast show seasonal cycles, increasing amplitude and an upward trend.