Production Forecasts (MRP and Supply Chain Planning Help)


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Production Forecasts

You can define and maintain forecasts for any item, at any level on your bills of material. You can forecast demand for products directly, or forecast product families and explode forecasts to individual products through planning bills. You can forecast demand for option classes, options, and mandatory components directly. You can also explode forecasts for models and option classes, through model and option class bills, to selected option classes, options, and mandatory components.

Forecasting Planning Bills

In Oracle Bills of Material, you can define multilevel planning bills, with multiple levels of planning items, to represent groups of related products that you want to forecast by family.

Typically, you can order components of a planning bill, but not the planning item itself. The planning item is an artificial grouping of products that helps you to improve the accuracy of your forecasting since, generally, the higher the level of aggregation, the more accurate the forecast.

When you use the Load/Copy/Merge window to load a planning item forecast into another forecast, you can choose to explode the aggregate forecast for the planning item into detailed forecasts for each of the components defined on the planning bill. The forecast quantities exploded to the components are calculated by extending the planning item forecast by the component usages and planning percents defined on the planning bill. You can also choose to explode forecasts when you load a planning item forecast into a master schedule.

Planning Bills

The following table illustrates a planning bill for Training Computer, a planning item that represents a planning bill for three types of computers: laptop, desktop, and server. The planning percent assigned to each member of the planning bill represents anticipated future demand for each product. Although, in this example, the planning percents add up to 100%, it is equally valid for the sum of the planning percents to be less than or greater than 100%.

Level Item BOM Item Type Planning %

1 Training Computer Planning

. 2 . Laptop Computer Model 60%

. 2 . Desktop Computer Model 20%

. 2 . Server Computer Model 20%

Table 1 - 2. Planning Bill of Material for Training Computer (Page 2 of 2)

Level	Item	BOM Item Type	Planning %
1	Training Computer	Planning
. 2	. Laptop Computer	Model	60%
. 2	. Desktop Computer	Model	20%
. 2	. Server Computer	Model	20%
Table 1 - 2. Planning Bill of Material for Training Computer (Page 2 of 2)

The following table illustrates forecast explosion, via the planning bill described in the previous table, for a forecast of 100 Training Computers. The table also illustrates forecast consumption after you place sales order demand for 20 Laptop Computers. Original forecast shows forecast quantities before forecast consumption. Current forecast shows forecast quantities after consumption by sales order demand.

Level Item Original Forecast Current Forecast

1 Training Computer 100 100

. 2 . Laptop Computer 60 40

. 2 . Desktop Computer 20 20

. 2 . Server Computer 20 20

Table 1 - 3. Forecast Explosion and Forecast Consumption (Page 1 of 1)

Level	Item	Original Forecast	Current Forecast
1	Training Computer	100	100
. 2	. Laptop Computer	60	40
. 2	. Desktop Computer	20	20
. 2	. Server Computer	20	20
Table 1 - 3. Forecast Explosion and Forecast Consumption (Page 1 of 1)

Forecasting Models

You can use the Bills of Material window in Oracle Bills of Material to define model and option class bills -- with multiple levels of option classes, options, and mandatory components -- to represent your complex configure-to-order products. You can then use forecast explosion to explode model and option class forecasts the same way you explode forecasts for planning items.

The logic for exploding models and option classes is the same as the logic used to explode planning items. You can choose to explode model and option class forecasts, just as you can choose to explode planning item forecasts when loading forecasts into other forecasts or master schedules.

Planning Models and Option Classes

Oracle Master Scheduling/MRP and Supply Chain Planning lets you master schedule any planned item on your master schedules, including models and option classes.

With the two-level master scheduling approach, you typically master schedule your key subassemblies - your options and mandatory components - since they are the highest level buildable items in your model bills.

Although models and option classes are not buildable items, you may want to master schedule them so that you can calculate available-to-promise (ATP) information for promising order ship dates by model or option class. You might also want to master schedule your models and option classes so that you can perform rough cut capacity checks by model and option class. This is particularly valid when different configurations of your models have very similar capacity requirements.

Attention: Oracle Master Scheduling/MRP and Supply Chain Planning does not support planning for pick-to-order models and option classes.

Model Bills

The following table illustrates a model bill for Laptop Computer, a model that includes two mandatory components and three option classes. The planning percent assigned to optional option classes represents anticipated demand for the option class. In this example, 90% of Laptop Computers are expected to be sold with an operating system, and the remaining 10% are expected to be sold without.

Level Item BOM Item Type Optional Planning %

. 2 . Laptop Computer Model No 60%

. . 3 . . Carrying Case Standard No 100%

. . 3 . . Keyboard Standard No 100%

. . 3 . . CPU Option Class No 100%

. . 3 . . Monitor Option Class No 100%

. . 3 . . Operating System Option Class Yes 90%

Table 1 - 4. Model Bill for Laptop Computer (Page 1 of 1)

Level	Item	BOM Item Type	Optional	Planning %
. 2	. Laptop Computer	Model	No	60%
. . 3	. . Carrying Case	Standard	No	100%
. . 3	. . Keyboard	Standard	No	100%
. . 3	. . CPU	Option Class	No	100%
. . 3	. . Monitor	Option Class	No	100%
. . 3	. . Operating System	Option Class	Yes	90%
Table 1 - 4. Model Bill for Laptop Computer (Page 1 of 1)

Option Class Bills

The following example illustrates the option class bills for the Monitor, VGA, and EGA option classes. The planning percent assigned to each option within each option class represents anticipated demand for the option. In this example, 70% of all Laptop Computers are expected to be sold with a VGA monitor, and the remaining 30% are expected to be sold with an EGA monitor. Notice that the Monitor option class is not optional. This means that customers must always choose one of the Monitor options when ordering Laptop Computer. Of the 70% of Laptop Computers sold with a VGA monitor, 50% are expected to be sold with the VGA1 monitor and 50% are expected to be sold with the VGA2 monitor. The VGA option class also includes a mandatory component, VGA Manual, that is always shipped with Laptop Computer if the VGA monitor option class is chosen, regardless of the VGA option.

Level Item BOM Item Type Optional Planning %

. . 3 . . Monitor Option Class No 100%

. . . 4 . . . VGA Option Class Yes 70%

. . . . 5 . . . . VGA Manual Standard No 100%

. . . . 5 . . . . VGA1 Standard Yes 50%

. . . . 5 . . . . VGA2 Standard Yes 50%

. . . 4 . . . EGA Option Class Yes 30%

. . . . 5 . . . . EGA1 Standard No 55%

. . . . 5 . . . . EGA2 Standard Yes 45%

Table 1 - 5. Option Class Bills for Monitor, VGA, and EGA (Page 1 of 1)

Level	Item	BOM Item Type	Optional	Planning %
. . 3	. . Monitor	Option Class	No	100%
. . . 4	. . . VGA	Option Class	Yes	70%
. . . . 5	. . . . VGA Manual	Standard	No	100%
. . . . 5	. . . . VGA1	Standard	Yes	50%
. . . . 5	. . . . VGA2	Standard	Yes	50%
. . . 4	. . . EGA	Option Class	Yes	30%
. . . . 5	. . . . EGA1	Standard	No	55%
. . . . 5	. . . . EGA2	Standard	Yes	45%
Table 1 - 5. Option Class Bills for Monitor, VGA, and EGA (Page 1 of 1)

Forecasting Predefined Configurations

Predefined configurations are configurations that you have defined as standard items, with standard bills and standard routings. You might define a predefined configuration because you often use the configuration in sales promotions, or the configuration is one of your most commonly ordered configurations, and you want to build it to stock to reduce delivery lead times and improve customer service levels. Your customers can order predefined configurations by item number, just as they order any other standard item.

Forecast consumption, forecast explosion, master scheduling, planning, production relief, and shipment relief for predefined configurations behave as they do for any other standard item.