Simulation Accuracy

For sufficient accuracy, set the number of simulation trials to the minimum number necessary to obtain a reliable estimate of the statistic being optimized. For example, you can reliably estimate the mean with fewer trials than the standard deviation or a percentile.

General guidelines for determining the number of simulation trials necessary to obtain good estimates are:

200 to 500 trials is usually sufficient for obtaining accurate estimates for the mean.
At least 1000 trials are necessary for obtaining reasonable estimates for tail-end percentiles.

Empirical testing with the simulation model using the Crystal Ball Bootstrap tool (see the Oracle Crystal Ball User's Guide) can help you find the appropriate number of trials for a given situation.