The mean standard error statistic enables you to determine the accuracy of your simulation results and how many trials are necessary to ensure an acceptable level of error. This statistic tells you the probability of the estimated mean deviating from the true mean by more than a specified amount. The probability that the true mean of the forecast is the estimated mean (plus or minus the mean standard error) is approximately 68 percent.
The mean standard error statistic provides information only on the accuracy of the mean and can be used as a general guide to the accuracy of the simulation. The standard error for other statistics, such as mode and median, probably will differ from the mean standard error. |
where s = standard deviation and n = number of trials.
The error estimate might be inverted to show that the number of trials needed to yield a desired error:
