Analyzing Certainty

The forecast results show the different result values for each forecast and also the probability of obtaining any value. Crystal Ball normalizes these probabilities to calculate another important number: the certainty.

The chance of any forecast value falling between –Infinity and +Infinity is always 100%. However, the chance — or certainty — of that same forecast being at least zero (which you might want to calculate to make sure that you make a profit) might be only 45%. For any range you define, Crystal Ball calculates the resulting certainty. This way, not only do you know that the company has a chance to make a profit, but you can also quantify that chance by saying that the company has a 45% chance of making a profit on a venture (a venture you might, therefore, decide to skip).