Apply Activity Uncertainty

The application enables you to convey information about general uncertainty for each project activity by defining two- or three-point duration estimates. This data is used during the risk analysis process to simulate varying durations for each activity.

Uncertainty can be applied using the Apply Activity Uncertainty automated process or by manually updating individual activity values in the table. For either method, first choose a distribution shape that expresses the relative likelihood of outcomes within the range of your duration estimates. A Uniform shape enables you to set minimum and maximum duration estimates. A Triangle duration shape enables you to set minimum, most likely, and maximum duration estimates. BetaPert also uses minimum, most likely, and maximum duration estimates, but more weight is given to the most likely duration and less weight to the tails. You can also select None if you do not want to apply estimates. This is the default option.

In the automated process, estimates are entered as a percentage of each activity's remaining duration. The automated process enables you to apply these percentage values to all activities, filtered activities, or selected activities. If you want to update activities individually, or if you want to overwrite specific activity values after using the automated process, use the columns in the table to choose a distribution shape for each activity, and then set duration estimate values based on the chosen shape. In the table, duration estimates are entered as duration values, not percentages. To update a selection of activities, add grouping bands to the view, and then update the appropriate uncertainty columns within each group.

Applying activity uncertainty can be performed using either method from the project Activities page. You can also run the automated process from the project Risk Register page. When you run the automated process from the Risk Register page, you can only apply the percentage values to all activities.

To apply activity uncertainty to project activities:

Navigate to the project Activities page
1. In the object selector, select a project.
2. In the sidebar, hover over  Schedule, and select Activities.
To apply activity uncertainty using the automated process, select the Actions menu, and then select Apply Activity Uncertainty.
In the Apply Activity Uncertainty dialog box, complete the following steps:
1. In the Apply to Activities section, select one of the following:
  - All: Apply the activity uncertainty to all activities in the schedule.
  - Filtered: Apply the activity uncertainty only to the activities that are currently filtered on the Activities page.
  - Selected: Apply the activity uncertainty only to the activities you have selected on the Activities page.
    Note: Options for the Apply to Activities section may vary depending on the filters and selections on the Activities page.
2. Select the Overwrite any existing values option to overwrite all estimate values that currently exist for project activities. If this option is disabled, only activities with a distribution shape of None will be updated.
3. In the Distribution Shape list, select the shape of the distribution that best models the estimates for activity durations. The duration fields available for you to edit depends on the selected shape.
4. In the Percent of Remaining Duration section, complete the following fields:
  - Minimum Duration: The percentage of the activity remaining duration that represents the minimum duration for the activity.
  - Most Likely Duration: The percentage of the activity remaining duration that represents the most likely duration for the activity.
  - Maximum Duration: The percentage of the activity remaining duration that represents the maximum duration for the activity.
    Note: Any duration set to 100% will be equal to an activity's remaining duration.
5. Select Apply.
To apply or overwrite activity uncertainty for individual activities, update activity values using the Uncertainty Distribution, Minimum Duration, Most Likely Duration, and Maximum Duration columns in the table. A distribution shape of Uniform, Triangle, or BetaPert must be chosen before the duration estimate fields can be edited.

Tips

The risk analysis process uses activity data from the current schedule. Although you can apply activity uncertainty to activities in baselines and scenarios, this data is not used in the risk analysis. The activity uncertainty values set in a baseline or scenario would be used if you choose to set the baseline or scenario as the current schedule.
Entering uncertainty estimates can be helpful for modeling general uncertainty for project activities. However, it only plays a small part in assessing project uncertainty, as project risks can be more impactful to the project schedule. Therefore, your project team should develop an effective risk management strategy for assessing and controlling the risks for your project.

Next: Assign a Manager to a Risk