Probability Rule Wizard

Purpose: Use the Probability Rule Wizard to create or edit probability rules.

Used for the Routing Engine module.

What are probability rules used for? Rules alter the inventory information returned in locate items search results and used to assign retail pickup, delivery, or ship-for-pickup orders. For example, you can set up a rule to reduce the available quantity displayed for a product location that has a high sell-through rate. If you base order assignment on available quantity, this rule might cause the Routing Engine to assign an order to a different location.

Inventory quantity export: You can use probability rules to calculate the expected available quantity that you export to an integrated system, both by sending incremental updates through a web service, and through a pipe-delimited extract file. See Probability Rules Update and Incremental Quantity Web Service for more information.

Steps to create a probability rule:

•         Rule Type: indicate whether the rule has any qualifications (an “if” statement) or should always apply when assigned to a location; also, you can specify or change the name of a rule

•         Conditions: specify the conditions that must be met for a rule with an “if” statement

•         Then: specify the calculation to apply when the rule meets the qualifications (if there is an “if” statement) or to always apply (for an “always” rule)

•         Review: review the rule before you accept your entries or changes

Note:             When advancing through the wizard to create or edit a probability rule, there may be a small lag time until the screen displays the updated data.

How to assign rules? Use the Probability Location screen to assign probability rules and review the rules already assigned to locations.

For more information: See Probability Rule Overview for a complete discussion on setting up, assigning, and testing rules.

Probable quantity rules: You use the Probable Quantity Rules screen rather than this screen to create probable quantity rules, which update the probable quantity that a system, such as your ecommerce site, can use as an estimate of an item’s availability. For more information on probable quantity rules and calculation of the probable quantity, see:

•         the Probable Quantity Rules screen

•         the Probable Quantity Location screen

•         the Probable Qty Export tab at the System screen

How to display the wizard: You can launch the Probability Rule Wizard from the Probability Rules screen by:

•         clicking New, or

•         clicking the edit icon () next to an existing rule

•         clicking Edit at the Browse Probability Rules window

Note:             Available if Use Routing Engine is selected at the Tenant - Admin screen. Only users with Probability Rules authority can display this screen. See the Role Wizard for more information.

In this topic:

•         Probability Rule Overview

•         About Calculations

•         Using the Probability Wizard

•         Rule Type

•         Conditions

•         Then

•         Review

•         Sample Rules

•         Testing a Rule

Probability Rule Overview   

What do rules do? Rules let you modify product search results (for example, locate items) and Routing Engine assignment by:

•         changing the available quantity, PO quantity, or PO date to use for a product search response or to evaluate whether to assign an order to the location; or,

•         excluding the location from the product search response or from consideration for order assignment

When can a rule apply? 

•         Rule conditions: A rule assigned to a location, location type, or organization can apply unconditionally, or based on conditions you set up based on dates, quantities, information about the order, or information about the product.

•         Probability location options: When you assign a rule to a location, type, or organization, you can specify a range of valid dates, indicate whether it applies to online or offline inventory information, or flag it as inactive.

Basic steps: The basic steps to setting up a probability rule are:

•         Create the rule and details: Use the Probability Rule Wizard to create the rule and its details. Details include:

•         the Rule Type that determines whether the rule applies (If or Always)

•         for an “if” rule, the Conditions that a product location must meet for the rule to apply

•         the result of the rule; that is, which field to modify for the search results or order assignment, or whether to exclude product locations from the search results or order assignment based on whether they meet the criteria for the rule

Note:             Calculation: You have the option to create a calculation to use as part of the rule test, or to apply as part of the rule results (for example, Available Quantity + Next PO Quantity). Use the Calculations window, available at the Probability Rules screen, to work with calculations. See About Calculations for a brief overview.

•         Assign the rule to one or more organizations, location types, or locations: Use the Probability Location screen to specify which locations should be affected by the rule. As part of assigning a rule at any of these levels, you can also specify:

•         a “from” date, “to” date, both, or neither, when the rule is effective

•         whether the rule applies only to locations with off-line availability information, on-line availability information, or both

•         whether the rule is active or inactive

•         Test the rule: Perform test locate items searches or order creation using a testing tool or from an integrated system, and confirm that the results are what you expect.

Important:                           In order for probability rules to apply, you need to have the Use Probability Rules preference set to Yes at the Preferences screen.

About Calculations

You can specify more complex conditions to apply, or results to display, by using calculations. For example, if you would always like to reduce the available quantity for a location by its shrink rate, you can set up a rule such as:

This rule includes the calculation Available Quantity Reduce By [%] Shrink.

Where can you use a calculation? You might use a calculation as the:

•         Element (first field) or Element or Value (third field) for a rule at the Condition step

•         Element or Value (third field) for a rule at the Then step

Use the Calculations window to create or work with calculations.

Using the Probability Wizard

The steps to create a rule are:

•         Rule Type

•         Conditions

•         Then

•         Review

For more information: See Probability Rule Overview for background.

Rule Type

Purpose: Use this step in the Probability Rule Wizard to:

•         specify the name of a new rule or change the name of an existing rule

•         set up the rule, including specifying whether the rule has an “if” statement with conditions that a product location must meet in order for the rule to apply, or whether the rule applies unconditionally when it is assigned to a location (an “always” rule)

How to display: At the Probability Rules screen:

•         click New, or

•         click the edit icon () next to an existing rule

Completing this step: 

•         Enter the Rule Name. If you entered a name at the Probability Rules screen or are editing an existing rule, the name defaults here, but you can override it. The name cannot exceed 40 positions, and can include spaces and special characters.

•         Select the Type of Rule to indicate whether the rule has an “if” statement with conditions, or is an “always” rule that applies unconditionally.

•         If the rule has just the action and no additional tests to perform, then you set the Type of Rule set to Always. These rules are simple statements: for example, Always Available quantity Equals [=] Available quantity - Daily Sell Through Qty).

•         If you want to apply one or more tests against the product location to determine whether to apply the rule, then the Type of Rule must be If.

Next step: When you create an If rule, you use the Conditions step to specify one or more conditions. Click Next to advance to the:

•         Conditions step if the Type of Rule is If

•         Then step if the Type of Rule is Always

•         Click Cancel to return to the Probability Rules without saving your entries.

Conditions

Purpose: Use this step in the Probability Rule Wizard to set up the conditions that a product location must meet in order for the rule to apply.

How to display: You advance to this step from the Rule Type step if you selected If as the Type of Rule. You do not advance to this step if the Type of Rule is Always.

Specifying a condition

A rule that has a Rule Type of If requires at least one condition.

1.      Element: Possible elements are:

•         Availability information for a product location: Available Quantity or Available to Promise, Next PO date, and Next PO Quantity. You can use these values as part of a test for a rule or in a calculation as well as updating them in the search results.

Examples:

•         If Available quantity is less than requested quantity

•         Always set Next PO date equal to Today plus 5 days

•         Attributes for a product location: Product attributes are Daily Sell Through Quantity, Minimum Sell Quantity, Sales Velocity, Sell Quantity/Multiple, and Shrink Rate %. You can use these values as part of the test for a rule or in a calculation.

Examples:

•         If Sell quantity is less than available quantity

•         If Daily sell-through quantity is more than requested quantity

•         Product or system product information: Category, Class, Department, Master Style, or System Product code. You can use these values as part of the test for a rule.

Examples:

•         If Category is equal to 9867

•         If Master style is not equal to AB100

•         Date: You can compare the Last Updated date for a product location with the current date (Today), or with specific dates.

Example: If Today is after the next Next PO date.

•         Information about the order or request: Express Carrier, Order Type, Originating System, or Requested Quantity. You can use these values as part of the test for a rule.

Examples:

•         If the order uses an Express Carrier

About rules based on the express carrier setting: If a delivery, retail pickup, or ship-for-pickup order is submitted without a carrier specified, the Routing Engine checks the Express setting of the Default Carrier specified at the Preferences screen. When a request is not associated with an order (locate items, product availability search), the Routing Engine also uses the Default Carrier if the transaction type is DELIVERY, RETAILPICKUP, or SHIPFORPICKUP. Otherwise, for a PICKUP transaction type, the Routing Engine always considers the Express setting to be No.

•         If the Order Type is RETAILPICKUP

Note: To evaluate a probability rule based on Order Type, the Routing Engine uses the fulfillment_type for a locate items request, the type for a product availability search, and the transaction_type_id for a submit order message or the order type when reshopping an order.

•         If the Originating System is 123

•         If the Requested Quantity is > 5

•         Calculations: If you have used the Calculations window to create any calculations, any existing calculations are listed below the system-supplied elements, and you can select one to use as part of a test. For example, use the Available Quantity Reduce By [%] Shrink calculation as part of a rule that starts: If     Available Quantity Reduce By [%] Shrink   Less Than [<]   Requested Quantity  

2.      Operator: The operator identifies the relationship between the Element and the Element or Value. Possible operators are:

•         Quantity: If the Element represents a quantity (Available Quantity, Next PO Quantity, Sell Qty/Multiple, Shrink Rate, or Sales Velocity), possible operators are:

•         Equal to [=]

•         Not equal to [!=]

•         Less than [<]

•         Less than or equal to [<=]

•         Greater than [>]

•         Greater than or equal to [>=]

•         Value or code: If the Element represents a code or a value (Category, Class, Master Style, System Product Code, Order Type or Originating System), possible operators are:

•         Equal to [=]

•         Not equal to [=]

If the selected value is Express Carrier, then the only available operator is Equal to [=].

•         Date: If the Element represents a date (Last Updated Date, Next PO Date, Today, or a date calculation), possible operators are:

•         Before

•         After

•         Calculation: The appropriate operators depend on the type of element used in the calculation. For example, if the calculation involves the quantity, then appropriate operators are the same as those listed above for other quantities.

3.      Element or Value: The element or value that the rule is comparing with the element or calculation in the second field. For example, if the line is: If Available Less Than [<]   Requested Quantity, then the rule is comparing the Requested Quantity with the Available Quantity selected from the Element field.

You can select an element or calculation, or enter a value, that is the same type of information as the selected Element. For example, if the Element is Next PO Quantity or Available Quantity Reduce By [%] 10, then your selection or entry must be a quantity. If the Element is a:

•         Quantity: You can select:

•         Available Quantity (but Available to Promise is used if it is different from the available quantity)

•         Next PO Quantity 

•         Sell Quantity/Multiple 

•         Minimum Sell Quantity 

•         Daily Sell Through Quantity

•         Shrink Rate %

•         Sales Velocity

•         Requested Quantity

•         a calculation using a quantity (for example, Available quantity minus [-] Shrink Rate)

•         or you can select Enter value... and enter a quantity. The Enter value... option is at the bottom of the drop-down list.

•         Date: You can select:

•         Next PO date

•         Last Updated date

•         Today

•         a calculation using a date (for example, Next PO date plus [+] 2)

•         or you can select Enter value... and enter a date in the format specified at the User Profile Configuration screen. The Enter value... option is at the bottom of the drop-down list.

•         Defined Value or code: 

•         Express Carrier: select Yes or No

•         Order Type: select Pickup, Delivery, Retail Pickup, or Ship For Pickup

•         Originating System: select any system in the organization, with the exception of a vendor system or Store Connect system

•         Any other defined value (Category, Class, Department, Master Style, or System Product Code): you can select Enter value... and enter a value. For example, you can set up a condition such as If System Product Code Equal To [=] AB200. The Enter value... option is at the bottom of the drop-down list.

Note: When you enter a value, your entry is not validated; however, when the Routing Engine evaluates a probability rule, matching is case-sensitive.

Completing entry of the condition: Click Add to add the condition, or click Reset to clear your entries in the Element, Operator, and Element or Value fields.

Multiple conditions?

If rules can specify one or more conditions, and each condition begins with an Or or an And:

•         Or: If the product location meets either or any of the conditions, then apply the rule. For example, if you would like to add 5 days to the next PO date for either product AB100 or product AB200, you might create a rule such as:

•         And: If the product location must meet both or all of the tests, then apply the rule, For example, if you would like to decrease the available quantity by 20% for product locations where both the available quantity is less than 10 and the next purchase order date is earlier than the current date, you might create a rule such as:

Changing a condition

Highlight an existing condition at the top of the screen so that you can use the Element, Operator, and Element or Value fields to change the condition. See Specifying a condition for information on your options when setting up a condition.

Click Change to accept your changes to the condition.

Deleting a condition

If the rule has multiple conditions, highlight an existing condition at the top of the screen and click Delete to remove the condition. This option is available only for Or or And conditions.

Rearranging conditions

If the rule has at least 3 conditions (the If condition and at least 2 Or or And conditions), highlight an existing Or or And conditions condition at the top of the screen and drag it up or down to the new position.

Accepting or rejecting your entries

Click Next to advance to the Then step.

Click Cancel to reject all changes to the rule, including those made at the Rule Name step, and return to the Probability Rules screen. If you were creating a new rule, the rule is not saved.

Optionally, click Previous to return to the Rule Type step.

Fields at this step

Then

Purpose: Use this step to specify the result of the rule. Possible results are:

•         change the available quantity, PO quantity, or PO date to use for a locate items response or evaluate whether to assign an order to the location

•         exclude the location from the locate items response or from consideration for order assignment through the Routing Engine

How to display: You advance to this step from the:

•         Conditions step if you selected If as the Type of Rule at the Rule Type step

•         Rule Type step if you selected Always as the Type of Rule at the Rule Type step

Exclude location: Select Exclude location to have a product location excluded from search results or order assignment by the Routing Engine. For an If rule, the product location must match the conditions set up at the Conditions step.

Note:             A probability rule set to Exclude location does not prevent Order Broker from assigning an order to a location if the SubmitOrder request specifies the location as the fulfilling location. The rule only prevents the location from being included in the locate item search results and automatic assignment using the Order Broker rules.

Alter a field for the product location: If you do not select Exclude Location, specify the field to update and how to update it:

•         Element: Possible elements to alter are:

•         Available Quantity

•         Next PO Quantity

•         Next PO date

•         Equal [=]: This is the only possible operator.

•         Element or Value: The resulting element or value must correspond to the Element:

•         Available Quantity: Possible element or value settings are;

•         Next PO Quantity

•         Sell Quantity/Multiple

•         Minimum Sell Quantity

•         Daily Sell Through Quantity

•         Shrink Rate %

•         Sales Velocity

•         Requested Quantity

•         a calculation using a quantity (for example, Available quantity minus [-] Shrink Rate)

•         or you can select Enter value... and enter a quantity. The Enter value... option is at the bottom of the drop-down list.

•         Next PO Quantity: Possible element or value settings are:

•         Available Quantity (but the Available to Promise is used if it is different from the available quantity)

•         Sell Quantity/Multiple

•         Minimum Sell Quantity

•         Daily Sell Through Quantity

•         Shrink Rate %

•         Requested Quantity

•         a calculation using a quantity (for example, Available quantity minus [-] Shrink Rate)

•         or you can select Enter value... and enter a quantity. The Enter value... option is at the bottom of the drop-down list.

•         Next PO date: Possible element or value settings are:

•         Last Updated date

•         Today

•         a calculation using a date (for example, Next PO date plus [+] 2)

•         or you can select Enter value... and enter a date in the format specified at the specified at the User Profile Configuration screen. The Enter value... option is at the bottom of the drop-down list.

For more information: See the Conditions step for details on the fields at this screen.

Accepting or rejecting your entries

Click Next to advance to the Review step.

Click Cancel to reject all changes to the rule and return to the Probability Rules screen. If you were creating a new rule, the rule is not saved.

Optionally, click Previous to return to the Conditions step (for an If rule) or the Rule Type step for an Always rule).

Review

Purpose: Use this step to review a rule you have created or changed, and to accept or reject the rule.

How to display: You advance to this step from the Then step.

This step displays the rule you have created or changed using the Probability Rule Wizard.

Rule not eligible Inventory Quantity Export Calculation: A message indicates if the rule cannot apply to the inventory quantity export, since the records are created without being associated with an order. This message is displayed for rules that are based on express carrier, order type, originating system, last updated date, today, or requested quantity as a condition. See the Probability Rules Update and Incremental Quantity Web Service for more information.

Click Save to accept your changes and save the rule, or click Cancel to reject all changes to the rule and return to the Probability Rules screen. If you were creating a new rule, the rule is not saved.

Optionally, click Previous to return to the Then step.

Sample Rules

The following table presents sample rules and includes the desired result, the steps to creating the rule, and the appearance of the rule once it is created.

First steps in creating rule details: The steps presented below tell you how to create rule details through the Probability Rule Wizard.

To assign the rule: After you create a rule, you need to use the Probability Location screen to apply the rule at the location, location type, or organization level, including specifying additional rule options such as sequence number, type (on-line only, off-line only, or both), date range, and whether the rule is active or inactive. See Testing a Rule for more information.

Sample rules:

•         Desired result: Always exclude location 20 from locate items searches.

•         Desired result: Always decrease the available quantity by the shrink rate.

•         Desired result: If the available quantity is less than the sell-through quantity, then present the available quantity as 0.

•         Desired result: If the available quantity is less than 10 and the next expected PO date is earlier than today, reduce the available quantity by 20%.

•         Desired result: If product is AB200 or product is AB300, add 5 days to the next PO date.

•         Desired result: If the order uses an express carrier, exclude location.

•         Desired result: If the available quantity divided by the sell quantity is less than the requested quantity, exclude the location. 

How to update multiple fields? If you would like to update more than one field in the search results based on the same condition, you need to create a separate rule for each field.

For example, you might want to both reduce the available quantity displayed in search results, and increase the next PO date by 5 days for a certain master style that sells quickly and typically ships late. To do so, you could create the following rules:

1. Rule to reduce the available quantity:

2. Rule to increase the next PO date: 

Testing a Rule

Why test? Probability rules and their application can be quite complex. Before you start using a rule in a production environment, it is worthwhile to make sure that your rule settings have the intended result. Testing is even more important if you will use multiple rules that update different fields, or that are specified in different levels in the location hierarchy.

Before you start: Select a product that exists in representative locations and systems. Depending on the rule and your requirements, you might want to use a product with product locations that:

•         are in both an online system and an offline system

•         include rule attributes or metrics which are set to a positive number, a negative number, blank, or 0. For example, what if the rule says to divide the available quantity by the selling multiple, but no selling multiple is specified for a product location? What happens if the available quantity is a negative number or 0? (In a situation where a rule would require Order Broker to divide a number by 0, Order Broker skips the rule and evaluates the next rule in the hierarchy, as described under Testing a Rule.)

Troubleshooting:

•         If no rules apply: Do you have the Use Probability Rules preference set to Yes at the Preferences screen?

•         If the rule does not apply to a product location as expected:

•         Rule active? Use the Probability Location screen to confirm that the rule is active and not prohibited from the location based on date range. Start at the lowest level (location) and work upward to location type and finally organization.

•         Correct type? If the probability rule assignment at the Probability Location screen indicates a Type of off-line only or on-line only, use the Systems screen to confirm that the system matches the selected type. Even if the system is flagged as online at the Systems screen, Order Broker considers it off-line if it cannot obtain an interactive inventory update from the system. This might occur if communications are down between Order Broker and the external system.

•         Did you fail to save the rule details? If you forgot to click Save when using the Probability Rule Wizard, your entries were not saved.

•         Did Order Broker skip the rule because it would have required dividing by 0? Check the information for the product location.

•         Field already updated by another rule? For example, if two rules apply to the same field (such as available quantity), and one has a lower sequence number, Order Broker might apply that rule first and never evaluate the rule with the higher sequence number.

•         If the rule does not apply at all: If the Probability Rules setting at the Event Logging screen is set to Detailed, you can check the logs, which are located on the Order Broker server in /usr/share/apache-tomcat/logs, where /usr/share/apache-tomcat/ is where Order Broker is installed. If you use the Event Logging screen to set the Event logging for Probability rules to Detailed, you will be able to use the error and application logs to review any probability rule errors or activity.

•         Confirm that the effect of the rule is not obscured by rounding. For example, if the rule indicates to reduce the available quantity by the shrink rate, and if a shrink rate of 5% is applied to an available quantity of 10, the resulting available quantity of 9.5 is rounded up and displayed as 10.

•         Does the rule involve the requested quantity? Certain systems, such as Order Management System, do not include a requested quantity for a locate items search unless you search from order entry.

•         Does the rule relate to the available quantity? If the Available Quantity differs from the Available to Promise quantity for a product location, the probability rule uses the Available to Promise quantity. For example:

•         The available quantity is 100, and the available to promise quantity is 80. If the rule requires that the available quantity be greater than 90, the rule does not apply.

•         The available quantity is 50, the available to promise quantity is -10, and the next PO quantity is 100. If the rule specifies to set the available quantity to available quantity plus next PO quantity, the resulting available quantity is 90 (-10 + 100).

See Calculating the Available to Promise Quantity for background.

•         Do you exclude locations with zero availability? If the Exclude Locations with Zero Availability setting is selected at the Preferences screen, any product locations whose Available to Promise quantities are 0 or less are not eligible for probability rule evaluation, unless the locations are also flagged as Backorder Available. For example, if you have a probability rule to include a product location’s next PO quantity in the available quantity, but the current available to promise quantity is 0, the rule is not applied and the location is excluded from evaluation.

•         Does the rule specify to add a number of days to the next PO date? If the next PO date specified in the response message is in 1970, this indicates that a probability rule that uses a calculation such as “next PO date plus x days” applied to a product location that does not have a next PO date. In this situation, the Routing Engine bases the calculation on a date of 1/1/1970 to avoid returning an error in the locate items response message.

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