Forecast Considerations
You should not rely exclusively on past data to forecast future demands. These circumstances might affect the business, and require you to review and modify the forecast:
New products that have no past data.
Plans for future sales promotion.
Changes in national and international politics.
New laws and government regulations.
Weather changes and natural disasters.
Innovations from competition.
Economic changes.
You can use long term trend analysis to influence the design of the forecasts:
Market surveys.
Leading economic indicators.