1. Forecast Management Implementation Guide
  2. Summary Forecasts

Summary Forecasts

The Forecast Generation for Summaries program (R34640) enables you to test simulated versions of future sales scenarios without having to run full detail forecasts. You can use this program to simulate and plan long range trends because this program does not update information in the Forecast File table (F3460), which is used as input to DRP, MPS, and MRP generation.

You can simulate multiple forecasting methods, including the system's 12 hard coded methods, with past sales order histories; and then select the best fit as determined by the system or another appropriate model to generate a forecast of future sales amounts. You can also select a specific forecasting method and use that model to generate the current forecast. The system generates forecasts of sales amounts for each level in the hierarchy and stores them in the Forecast Summary File table (F3400).

The Forecast Generation for Summaries program uses the same 12 forecasting methods that are used to create detail forecasts. However, the system creates forecast information for each level in the hierarchy.

You can also use the Forecast Generation for Summaries program to:

  • Specify the summary code for the hierarchy for which you want to forecast.

  • Generate summary forecasts that are based on sales history.

  • Select a best fit forecast.

  • Store any or all of the forecast methods in table F3400.

  • Generate the forecast in a fiscal date pattern that you select.

  • Specify the number of months of actual data to use to create the best fit.

  • Forecast for individual large customers.

  • Forecast an unlimited number of periods into the future.

If you use the default type codes in the processing options, the actual sales history records are identified by type AA, and the best fit model is identified by type BF. The system saves the BF type and AA type records (or corresponding type codes that you designate) in table F3400. However, forecast types 01 through 12 are not automatically saved. You must set a processing option to save them.

When you run the Forecast Generation for Summaries program, the system:

  • Extracts sales order history information from table F3400.

  • Calculates the forecasts by using methods that you select.

  • Determines the Percent of Accuracy (POA) or Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) for each selected forecast method.

  • Recommends the best fit forecast method.

  • Generates the summary forecast in both monetary amounts and units from the best fit forecast.