Seasonal Additive

Calculates a seasonal index for historical data that does not have a trend. The method produces exponentially smoothed values for the level of the forecast and the seasonal adjustment to the forecast. The seasonal adjustment is added to the forecasted level, producing the seasonal additive forecast.

This method is best for data without trend but with seasonality that does not increase over time. It results in a curved forecast that reproduces the seasonal changes in the data.

Figure B-6 Typical Seasonal Additive Data, Fit, and Forecast Curve without Trend


Cyclical graph of seasonal additive historical and forecasted data