Classic Nonseasonal Forecasting Method Parameters

The classic nonseasonal methods use several forecasting parameters. For the moving average methods, the formulas use one parameter, period. When performing a moving average, Predictive Planning averages over a number of periods. For single moving average, the number of periods can be any whole number between 1 and half the number of data points. For double moving average, the number of periods can be any whole number between 2 and one-third the number of data points.

Single exponential smoothing has one parameter: alpha. Alpha (a) is the smoothing constant. The value of alpha can be any number between 0 and 1, not inclusive.

Double exponential smoothing has two parameters: alpha and beta. Alpha is the same smoothing constant as described above for single exponential smoothing. Beta (b) is also a smoothing constant exactly like alpha except that it is used during second smoothing. The value of beta can be any number between 0 and 1, not inclusive.

Damped trend smoothing has three parameters: alpha, beta, and phi (all between 0 and 1, not inclusive).