Selected Demand Management Bug Fixes in This Update

This update includes some bug fixes that can change the way Oracle Demand Management works. This isn't a full list of all the bug fixes in this update. This list includes the bug fixes that can cause a noticeable change in application behavior.

Calculate Average Demand Correctly When Generating a Demand Forecast Using a Naive Forecasting Method

When none of the analytical forecast methods selected in a forecasting profile meet the criteria to generate a forecast for a specific forecasting combination, the analytical engine uses a “naïve method.” A naïve forecasting method uses a simple heuristic to calculate the expected demand based on the prior demand values and timing. This method differs from the other forecasting methods available in forecasting profiles that use machine learning techniques. You can control which naïve method to use with the EnableNaiveForecast forecasting parameter. This parameter is set to 1 by default to use Oracle’s proprietary naïve modeling, which uses a simple heuristic to calculate the average periodicity of demand points and the average quantity for those demand points.

Previously, Oracle’s proprietary naïve method didn’t calculate correctly the average demand based on the average period, which could result in an overbias in the forecast. Now, this naive method will always ensure the average demand over the forecast period is aligned with all historical time buckets, including those with no demand. This could result in a change to the forecast for combinations where the historical demand contains periods without any demand, and the forecast is generated using this naive method.

This change doesn’t apply if the EnableNaiveForecast forecasting parameter is set to 0 to disable naïve modeling or if it’s set to a value greater than 1 to use a moving average (where the value specifies the number of historical time periods to use for calculating the moving average).

This change is enabled by default. If you don’t want this change, you can revert to the prior behavior using the Parameter Overrides value UseOldNaive=1. This value is set at the plan level using the Select Advanced Options button in Edit Plan Options on the Demand tab. If you have multiple entries for the Parameter Overrides, use a space or hashtag (#) between them.

Oracle reference: 37278432.

Steps to Enable

You don't need to do anything to enable this feature.