Overview of Forecast Simulations

Simulating forecast scenarios help in evaluating different scenarios by changing the demand plan parameters, causal factors, or configuration of a forecasting profile.

Simulation enables you to change almost any input to the forecasting process, and in near real time see what impacts it would have on the results. When you run a forecast in simulation, the forecast may be assigned different output measures. Thus, you can view the results of your complete plan run side by side with simulation results.

You can select up to six output measures on the Simulate Demand page. Simulation results are stored in these measures instead of the measures the complete plan forecast is using. In most cases, you modify the Forecast Measure selection to review the results, without altering other settings such as, forecast level, forecast methods, and decomposition information.

Simulation is run on the members of a table or graph. You can run the simulation on all the members of the table or graph, or restrict the execution to certain members based on the selected Scope option:

Table or Graph: Generate a forecast based on the population of the table or graph.
Table with Pivot Filter: Generate a forecast based on the pivot table filter.
Table Selection: Generate a forecast on only the selected table members.

Simulation is also the best way to quickly create new forecasting profiles, modify some of their definitions and view the output side by side with established forecasting profiles. If the new results look like an improvement you can then modify the established forecasting profiles as needed.

You have two sets of predefined output measures. They are by the name Simulation 1 and Simulation 2, and other output measures begin with the word Simulate. You can create additional measures based on these measures to support additional scenarios.

Note: If multiple users are conducting simulations using the same forecasting profiles and modifying the profile, each users changes can impact the other user. It may be best for different users who are running simulations to each have their own forecasting profile. You can create a new forecasting profile based on an existing profile by duplicating it. Use the Duplicate icon available on the Simulate Demand dialog.

You can use simulation in the following scenarios:

Run unlimited number of forecast simulations to review impacts, such as changes in the price, running a marketing campaign, shift in weather, and demand upside request.
Simulate how changes to forecasting models and parameters have an immediate impact on the statistical forecast.
Simulate changes to attach rates or change the independent option forecast for configure to order items.
Simulate the impact of introducing new products in particular geographic areas.
Perform side by side analysis of any number of scenarios and review the impact on operational and financial objectives.