Forecasting Profile Options for Demand Plans
Demand plan options determine the forecasting profiles to include as part of a demand, demand and supply, or sales and operations plan run.
Define forecasting profile options for a plan in a Supply Chain Planning work area on the Plan Options page, Demand tab. The Demand tab isn't available for supply plans.
In the Forecast Profiles region, select which forecasting profiles are available for the plan run. You can also indicate the amount of historical data used for forecast generation. When you run the plan, the forecast profiles run in the specified order.
The demand planning engine generates statistical demand forecasts at different time levels such as day, week, or month. For a demand plan, specify the time level in the Forecasting Time Level field on the Demand tab.
For a demand plan that uses a hybrid time hierarchy, the available forecasting time levels are parent levels of the Hybrid time level for the hierarchy that you selected as the planning calendar on the Scope tab.
Forecasting Profiles with Input Measures and Output Measures
In the Forecast Profiles region, specify which forecasting profiles to include as part of a plan. You can't edit the input measure or output measure for a forecasting profile.
The following table lists the predefined forecasting profiles.
|
Forecasting Profile Name |
Input Measure |
Output Measure |
|---|---|---|
|
Forecast Shipments |
Final Shipments History |
Shipments Forecast |
|
Forecast Shipments Including Event Activity (Not available in the Planning Central or Sales and Operations Planning work area) |
Final Shipments History |
Shipments Forecast |
|
Forecast Shipments Including Product Lifecycle (Not available in the Planning Central work area) |
Final Shipments History |
Shipments Forecast |
|
Forecast Bookings |
Final Bookings History |
Bookings Forecast |
|
Forecast Bookings Including Event Activity (Not available in the Planning Central or Sales and Operations Planning work area) |
Final Bookings History |
Bookings Forecast |
|
Forecast Bookings Including Product Lifecycle (Not available in the Planning Central work area) |
Final Bookings History |
Booking Forecast |
Analysis Set
An analysis set is an optional criterion used to apply a forecasting profile to a subset of a plan.
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If you don't select an analysis set, then the forecasting profile applies to the full scope of the plan.
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If you select an analysis set, then the forecasting profile is applied to only the subset of the plan scope defined by the analysis set.
For example, you have an analysis set containing a specific set of products, and you select that analysis set for a forecasting profile. The forecast is generated for the specific products included in both the analysis set and plan, instead of for all the products in the plan.
Historical Buckets
Define the amount of historical data to use during the forecasting process. The statistical demand forecasting process uses the number of buckets in this field to define the amount of historical data used.
The historical buckets substantially affect the demand forecast generated when you run the plan. Use at least 12 months of history, but 18 to 36 months of history is the best practice. When setting the historical buckets, keep the following in mind:
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Very long history affects plan runtimes and makes the forecast less relevant to current demand patterns.
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Less than 1 year of history affects seasonal analysis. This includes both yearly seasonality and holiday impacts.
The historical buckets setting is the maximum amount of history used when generating a forecast. The actual amount depends on the data available for a given item and organization. For each item and organization, the forecasting process identifies all available historical data, removes any leading zero demand prior to the first positive demand point, and generates a forecast.
History Start and End Dates
The plan definitions drive the history end date. The history start date is calculated based on the end date and historical buckets.
Forecast Buckets
Indicates how far into the future a demand forecast is generated and is driven by the planning horizon set for the plan.
Locked Forecast Buckets
Indicates the number of buckets from the end of historical data that don't receive a new forecast when you run the demand plan.
Forecast End Date
Indicates the end date for a forecast that's generated when you run the plan. The end date is based on the planning horizon and the current plan start date.