How You Manage Maintenance Forecasts

A forecast collects work requirements from all the active work requirements and suggests due dates based on the asset operating organization, maintenance organization, forecast method, concurrent work options, and last maintenance work order.

This includes assets that operate in the contextual program’s maintenance organization as well as other organizations when enabled.

Note: If an asset has the indicators, Allow maintenance programs or Allow work orders set to No, then it won’t be considered by the forecast scheduled process.

When generating the maintenance forecast, the application considers the value set for the Forecast Horizon in Days. This value is defined in the maintenance organization plant parameters, program header and work requirement, controlling how far into the future the forecast will generate due dates. The number of days value is used based on the lowest level of definition in a program. After a forecast is run, if some due dates aren't displayed in the calendar or Gantt chart, you can review the setup and adjust the horizon window values. For additional details, refer to the Guidelines to Set Up Maintenance Plant Parameters topic in the Implementing Manufacturing and Supply Chain Materials Management guide.

If an asset is operating in a maintenance organization, the due dates will be forecasted in the same organization. If an asset is operating in a non-mx organization, the program won't forecast in that organization as work orders can’t be created. Instead, the due dates forecast in either the program contextual maintenance organization or a primary maintenance organization.

Generate Maintenance Forecasts

Create and regenerate forecasts regularly to provide latest data to your planners. A forecast is used to verify if the modeling methods are correctly translated into a cadence of due dates into the future. It considers all active programs, work requirements and assets, and then generates the future preventative maintenance due dates. It is recommended as part of implementation as well as through on-going support that you fully understand all the modeling capabilities so that you know how to define, create, and update an asset’s preventative maintenance forecast.

You can create and periodically update the forecast by one of these methods:

• Within a single program, you can verify the forecast methods for a single work requirement or only a specific included asset in the affected assets page. Each of these methods incrementally update the forecast only for a subset of due dates for the program. This method is useful to create or update the forecast for a new or edited work requirement within a program, while eliminating the unnecessary recalculation and recreation of forecast due dates for other work requirements across the program. The improved response time lets you to evaluate the forecast due date results quickly.
• Within a single program, you can generate or refresh all the work requirements and assets. Verify the forecast methods for the work requirements by selecting from the Actions drop-down the Generate Forecast button. This runs a scheduled process to create and update the forecast across all work requirements and assets in the program for forecast window in days. If you have large programs, don't run this process more than once in a day. You can disable this option from the pages and prefer to run the program as a scheduled process during a low activity time in a day.
• After a program is validated, set up the forecast to periodically run using a scheduled process. The job can be accessed from the Tasks pane on the Maintenance Management landing page by clicking the Generate Maintenance Forecast link. For additional details about this scheduled process, refer to the Scheduled Processes for SCM guide.

When the Generate Maintenance Forecast scheduled process is submitted, it locks all the unique Maintenance Programs covered by the program parameters. When it completes, it unlocks the program so that its forecast can be generated again by resubmitting the scheduled process. In the rare case where a scheduled process ends in error or when a process is manually stopped by user intervention, there's a chance the program is still locked. This prevents further updates of its forecast using the scheduled process. If this occurs, you can unlock the program by this method.

• Create a small program with 1 work requirement in the same organization.
• Ensure the scheduled process is not running for the organization or program.
• For the small program, run the Generate Forecast in-session, this should unlock all the programs in the organization.
• Then try running the Scheduled Process again, perhaps for one program at the time until the issue is resolved and confirmed. You should also coordinate efforts with Oracle Support if you have any questions or concerns.

Note: It is recommended to have a coordinated effort for creating and updating the forecast of individual programs as well as programs across each organization. If individual updates are performed that are not coordinated across users on a regular basis, it can be difficult to maintain consistency in updating the forecasts. Scheduled processes should be used to consistently update the forecast on a routine interval that is known by your planners.

Adjust Future Due Dates Based on Last Completion

We recommend that if Day or Meter Intervals are used as the forecast method, you select the Next work order only check box and set the Method to Calculate Next Due as Last Completion. This allows a dynamic adjustment of future due dates within the forecast horizon based on previous work order completion and meter reading entry. Else, the forecast may not dynamically forecast taking into consideration the last completion of a work order for a maintenance program.

However, if you have business scenarios where work orders are not completed before the next forecasted due date, the forecast is unable to dynamically adjust and push out future due dates. You may encounter issues with forecast sequences getting skipped over and not available to be re-forecasted and pushed out dynamically. The only way to handle these dates is to manually skip or create work orders using the Maintenance Forecast page.

To solve this issue, we recommended setting an asset parameter option that will enable the capability to adjust future due dates in the forecast based on either the scheduled or actual completion date of the last open work order in history, along with the latest meter reading.

The parameter is entitled Allow Maintenance Forecast to Adjust Future Due Dates When Using the Last Completion Option and can be set by an administrator in the Manage Asset Maintenance Parameters in the Setup and Maintenance work area.

• When set to No (default), the system will not adjust the next due dates based on the last work order in history based on the scheduled completion date and it will not adjust for work orders completed after the next due date in the forecast.
• When set to Yes (recommended), the system will adjust the next due dates based on the last active work order, either scheduled or actual completion date, in the forecast sequence. For this option to work, you should either use the next work order option = Yes or have a forecast window that will allow only one active work order at the time.
  • Prior to work order completion, if the work order scheduled completion date is updated, then the next refresh of the forecast will push or pull the next due dates within the forecast window of the next forecast sequences in order and per the forecast method.
  • After work order completion, the system will adjust the future forecast, based on the actual completion date, while maintaining the forecast sequence over the forecast window. This may include deleting or recreating forecast sequences to recreate the correct sequence after the completion of the work order’s due date in the forecast.

If you are modeling a forecast using meter readings, it is expected that readings are routinely entered systematically, manually or during work order completion. The system uses these readings to forecast the next due date sequences. If you adjust a scheduled completion date, the system will calculate what the expected reading is as of that date, and use this value to project the future due dates.

Generate Maintenance Forecasts Processing Time

If the process finds large numbers of work requirements and affected assets, the system can now deploy additional child workers to improve processing time. By default, the system will deploy a single worker, but if more than 2000 work requirement and asset combinations are detected in a program a second worker will be automatically deployed.

If you are still experiencing long processing times, due to a large number of work requirements and of assets within a program, you may see improve processing time by having an Administrator increase the number of child workers that can be deployed.

An administrator can set the number of workers using the Manage Administrator Profile Values task for this profile option:

• Profile Option Name: ORA_MNT_PROGRAM_NUM_WORKERS
• Profile Option Description: Number of Enterprise Scheduler Service Workers to be spawned for the Maintenance Program Jobs.

We recommend increasing the number of workers between 3 and a maximum value of 10. You should start at a value of 3, then increment one worker at the time, verifying improvement or not in the processing time.

Validate a Maintenance Forecast

After a forecast is generated, you can view and confirm a forecast within the program using the Gantt or Calendar tabs, by searching for an asset and/or the work requirement on the Maintenance Forecasts page or reviewing an OBTI analysis or report. Depending on the size and complexity of a forecast, you will pick the appropriate method.

Within the program, you can confirm that a forecast has been successfully created or updated. There are 2 key indicators located on the Overview tab of each program and tell you when it was last updated and forecasted.

You can then validate the forecast modeling outcome of each asset using the Gannt Chart or Calendar tabs within the program, or by searching the Maintenance Forecasts page. For most modeling solutions, you can easily verify the cadence and expected due dates match your forecast modeling. This includes viewing additional details about a due date, such as the source of the forecast, interval, and work definitions that are included.

During the creation of new work requirement for an asset, you may need an iterative approach where you generate and review the forecast, make small modifications, then regenerate the forecast to verify the outcome. However, once a forecast has been established and work orders have been created, care should be taken when modifying the forecast methods of the source work requirement. Additional details and consideration around updating a work requirement is covered in the next section.

It is also recommended to have an OTBI analysis or report available to verify the latest updates to a program using the Maintenance Program and Work Requirement subject areas. These updates can then be validated against the corresponding OTBI report for the Forecast Line subject area, allowing you to confirm if the latest programs updates are reflected in the forecast or not. This comparison provides you the ability to understand the resulting cadence and due dates in the forecast and help guide any future updates to the modeling methods. Additional details on using OTBI are covered in this user guide in the section entitled Reports and Analytics.

Here are the key fields in an OTBI report for the Maintenance Program and Work Requirement definition subject areas that can be used to validate against the Forecast Lines subject area:

• Maintenance Program - Header
  • Creation Date: Shows the date when a program was created. This is the baseline date for the creation and editing of work requirement details.
  • Last Updated Date: Shows the date when the header attributes were updated last time. This date doesn't reflect work requirement updates.
  • Last Forecasted On Date: This is helps you know when the last forecast successfully completed, either in-session or using the scheduled process for this program. This is also tracked at the Work Requirement and Forecast line level.
• Work Requirement - Header
  • Creation Date: Shows the date when the requirement was created.
  • Last Updated Date: Shows the last time when header attributes were updated.
    • You can compare the historical forecast cadence against the latest modeling method to understand if any changes were made over time.
  • Last Forecast Date: Shows the last forecast date for each requirement. Compare it with the Program Last Forecast Date to know if the requirement was in an active status when the last time a program was updated.
    • Comparing the Creation and Last Updated dates on the requirement with that of the Last Forecast Date confirms if the latest version of the requirement was considered in the forecast.
    • Also, you can compare the requirement’s Last Forecasted Date with the Last Forecasted Date in each resulting Forecast Line to know if the latest or an earlier version was used to create the line and its due date.
  • Start Date: The start date is important to determine the first due date. However, after the first work order is created, the start date shouldn’t be updated, because it won't re-sequence the due dates. However, if any user changed the start date, you can verify it against the historical forecast by Last Forecast Dates.
• Work Requirement - Work Definitions
  • Creation Date: Shows the date when work definition was added to the requirement.
  • Last Updated Date: Shows the last time the definition was updated.
    • You can compare a Work Definitions Last Updated Date with the requirement’s Last Updated Date and Forecast Last Date to verify if the current Work Definition details are considered in the forecast.
    • Though you can delete a work definition, add a work definition, or edit its interval value, along with merge or suppress option between or across different forecast updates, this can cause a confusion in forecast and issues in understanding the intended modeling and cadence.
    • Also, if a forecast isn't refreshed since the last work definition or requirement update, the future forecast won't be in sync per the modeling.
  • Repeats At Interval: This value can be updated over time. Use this to compare with the past forecast history to understand the changes made.
• Work Requirement - Affected Assets
  • Creation Date: Use this date to verify when the asset explicitly defined for the requirement.
  • Last Updated Date: Shows the last time an asset was updated. You can compare it with the requirement’s Last Updated Date and Forecast Last Date.
  • Historical Details: Are updated before the first work order is created. So, it's easy to compare with the forecast to verify any changes in the modeling and the affected asset details.

Use an OTBI report for the Forecast Lines subject area to compare against the latest updates to the Maintenance Program and Work Requirement definition subject areas. As covered in the Reports and Analytics section of this guide, the topic OTBI for Oracle Maintenance provides guidance on all the subject areas, including an example of an OTBI analysis for the Forecast Lines. Here are some key fields from the analysis example to review:

• Forecast Lines for a program should be sorted by Work Requirement, Asset, Forecast Sequence, Due at Cycle Interval, and Forecast Due Date respectively. This provides a logical order of forecast history to compare against the modeling methods.
• Forecast Line ID: A Forecast Line is deleted and recreated by each forecast update until a work order is created, resulting in a new unique Line ID. Therefore, you can compare these values over a time to confirm from a previous forecast to a later forecast if the lines were recreated.
• Last Forecast Date: You see the last date when a forecast was updated for a line with a work order. After a work order is created, the forecast line is frozen. This date can be compared against the corresponding dates in the work requirement to verify if the latest updates are reflected in the forecast lines.
• Forecast Sequence and Due Date: The Forecast Sequence starts as of the Start Date at a value of 1 and is calculated forward for the forecast horizon number of days. If the Start date is in the past, the sequence is calculated from that date, but it only produces due dates from the application date forward. Therefore, it may be common to see a forecast sequence for a cycle of intervals starting in the forecast at a value other than 1.
  • The cadence of a requirement for an asset over time is analyzed by comparing the Start Date, Cycle, and Intervals (if used), Work Definition Due Intervals (if cycle-based) against the Forecast Lines. This verifies if the current modeling is correctly applied for all future due dates without a work order.
  • Additionally, if the forecast method is using a last completion option, then forecasted next due is recalculated accurately only after the next work order is completed.
• Forecast Meter Reading: If utilization meters for an asset are used to calculate the due dates, this value reflects where the forecast anticipates the reading of the asset each future due date. This value is calculated using the base interval value and meter utilization rates. The due dates are then updated based on the actual meter reading history when a forecast is updated.

Update a Work Requirement

As you are validating a forecast, you may identify due dates are not falling on the correct sequence for one or more assets. For a newly created work requirement, you may need an iterative approach where you generate and review the forecast, make small modifications, then regenerate the forecast to verify the outcome. This is an important step in validating the forecast modeling for an asset’s preventative maintenance during its initial definition.

However, for an existing forecast, you may wish to manage small changes in the Maintenance Forecasts page before considering any changes to its source work requirement. Care should always be taken when modifying the forecast methods of the source work requirement once work orders are created. Once a cadence is established using the work requirement start date, it may be difficult to adjust it depending on the modeling methods.

Note: It is also essential that you verify all your forecast modeling methods prior to creating the first work order for an asset in a work requirement. Else, you will be limited to the adjustments you can make to future due dates.

When editing a work requirement, it's important to understand the impact to the existing forecast, future forecast, and in general its history.

• Forecasts are always created and recreated from the date of the scheduled process into the future, per the forecast horizon in days.
• Existing forecast due dates, without work orders, are deleted and recreated. Past dates will be preserved and not updated.
• If a forecast due date has been manually set to be skipped, or a requested due date or organization is defined, then the forecast preserves the due date and it won't be deleted and recreated. Additionally, all previous due dates before this date are also preserved, which means the forecast won't delete or recreate them. This is necessary to maintain history of the manual edits and allow the forecasted due dates to be later edited as required.
• If a forecast due date is manually reset to not be skipped, have a requested due date or organization defined, then the forecast due dates will be reconsidered for deletion and recreation. This includes the individual due dates and all due dates before it in history that are not preserved due to manual edits.
• Work Orders are created only for due dates and times in the future. Therefore, it's possible that due dates in the past are skipped and not considered for work order creation if that scheduled process isn't scheduled to run on a routine basis. You can use the Manage Forecasts page or REST API to manually create these work orders, as required.
• Changes to the work requirement forecast method or parameters may fundamentally change the future forecast cadence. It becomes difficult to verify the original or last modeling in the past. Therefore, it may be advisable to create new work requirements when a significant change in cadence is required.
• If you use a Day or Meter interval, you must choose a method to calculate the next due dates as either using the base interval or the last completion. Once work orders are created for a forecast, changing this method could result in dramatic changes to a future forecast. Therefore, care should be taken when updating the method.

Manage the Forecast Using the Maintenance Forecast Page

You can also view and update the forecast using the Maintenance Forecasts page or REST API. For an asset’s due date, you can view key details about the asset and forecast method. Additionally, you can:

• Define and update a requested work order start date if a work order has not been created yet. This is helpful to manually define when a work order will be created, instead of its due date, by the work order creation scheduled process. The requested start date can only be set to a value between the last and next due date in the forecast.
• Define and update a requested maintenance organization where the work order will be created. If the due date is forecasted by a program that is enabled for cross-organizations, then you can request the work order to be created in another maintenance-enabled organization, instead of its forecasted organization. This requested organization must have the same work definitions in order to be defined.
• Skip a due date for an asset. In case you don't want to create a work order for a due date, set the skipped indicator to Yes. This won't consider the due date for work order creation using the work order creation scheduled process. You can also un-skip a due date, which allows the due date to be reconsidered by the next run of the schedule process if the due date is in the present or future. Else, you can manually create a work order.
• Manually create a work order for a due date. For a due date without an active work order, you can create a work order based off the forecasted due date and location, or by using the requested start date and location, if defined. This action will launch a scheduled process request to create the work order for the due date. This action is useful for due dates with a status of Planned, Unplanned, Skipped or Canceled.
• Manually cancel a work order for a due date. You can cancel the work order if no transactions have been created in execution. Even after canceling, you can still view the work order reference, but it will be set to a status of Canceled and will not be available for execution. The work order and due date will be considered by the forecast scheduled process to generate future due dates. Additionally, for a Canceled work order on a due date, you can manually create a new work order in the same or requested location.

Note: If a work requirement is defined to create only the next work order, you can’t manually create any future work orders unless the last work order in history is in a status of completed or canceled.

Note: Care should be taken when you manually update a forecasted due date in the Manage Forecast UI or using the REST API. These updates fundamentally change the behavior of the forecast scheduled process. If you update a forecast due date with a requested due date or organization, or skip the due date, it won't be deleted and recreated by the forecast scheduled process. Additionally, all previous due dates before this date will also be preserved, which means the forecast won't delete or recreate them. Therefore, if you have a forecast method that relies on the last completion of a work order to recalculate the drive the next due date, you won't see an updated forecast due date if the date is preserved due to manual editing.

Keyword-Based Searches

Here are some tips you can follow when you do keyword-based searches:

• Searches are case insensitive. Both capitalized and non-capitalized keyword terms match when searching by work order or asset details.
• You can search using a full-text search, such as a work order or asset number. This narrows your search results.
• You can also use a partial-text search, such as the first few numbers of a work order or text in an asset description. Use starts with or contains for an effective search.
• If you search using text that is hyphenated, such as Lot-Based, the terms are searched using an OR condition. That is, the search engine searches using Lot or Based as separate text values.
  • With hyphenated text, you can also search by only a partial value text, such as Lot or Based. This broadens your search results.
  • If you don’t find your results or you get too many results, try searching for an exact phrase by adding quotation marks around the text such as, "Lot-Based" . This tells the search to only return results that contain the exact words in the same order.
• If you search using a word that has an underscore, such as Lot_Based, the engine considers this as a one word.
  • Don't use word with underscore for a partial keyword search.
  • Special characters, such as asterisks aren't supported.