Create and Edit a Storm ERT

After you create a storm model, you can create one or more estimated restoration timelines (ERTs) and add them to the storm model. An ERT is a forecast of how long it will take to restore power to customers who are expected to be off supply. As part of the ERT creation process, you select one or more past storms to use as the basis of the ERT calculations.

Create an ERT

Sign in to Storm ERT.
From the storm dashboard, search for and click the name of the storm model in which you want to add an ERT.
In the storm view that displays, click Actions and then Create ERT.
In the Similar Storms page, select similar storms from the list that can be used as a basis for the ERT calculation. You must select at least one storm. You can use the search bar to find a specific storm, or you can use one of the available filters. The list of storms is pre-filtered to exclude storms in a Cancelled or Draft state, or storms whose zones belong to different operating company than the current storm.

Warning: Be careful not to choose similar storms that are significantly shorter or longer than the one being modeled. Short storms do not serve as a good basis for long storms, and long storms do not serve as a good basis for short ones. If there is too great a difference, then a workplan curve can't be generated, resulting in blank fields in the Workplan tab. See Update Storm Model Work Plan for details.
Click Continue.
In the ERT Details page, complete the fields below.
- Name: Enter a distinct and concise name for the ERT. For example, you could use ERT1 to indicate that it is the first ERT created for the storm model. This name will be used as a label for the ERT after it is created.
- Start of Restoration: Enter the date and time when restoration activities are expected to begin, based on your knowledge of previous storms and the conditions of your service territory. By default, this date and time matches the start of the storm (it cannot be earlier than the start of storm). What you choose in this step dictates the soonest that any crew shift can begin.
- Crew Schedules: If necessary, edit or adjust the prepopulated columns for the crew schedules of each zone. You will be able to update this information later. Initial crew shifts are split into two 12-hour periods of the day: 7 a.m. and 7 p.m. (The Global zone row is not editable since it contains summaries of the zones below it.)
  - Start of Restoration (Zone Level): Adjust the date and time you expect crews to begin restoration activities in the zone.
  - Estimated Customers: Adjust the estimated number of customers in the zone who are expected to lose power.
  - Estimated Outages: Adjust the estimated number of outages anticipated in the zone. The number of estimated outages should be less than or equal to the number of estimated customers who are expected to lose power. This is because one outage can affect multiple customers, such as when a pole is down or a transformer is damaged.
  - Day 1 AM Crews, Day 1 PM Crews, etc: Adjust the number of crews dispatched in each 12-hour period of a day as needed for each zone. (Day 1 AM Crews refers to the first 12 hours of day 1, Day 1 PM Crews refers to the second 12 hours of day 1, and so on.) The number you choose will likely depend on factors such as the storm class. For example, you may want to increase the number of crews planned for a class 2 storm as opposed to a class 1 storm.
    Note: The application automatically determines the default number of crew shifts by looking at the similar storm that took the longest time to restore. The application then averages the number of crews assigned to each similar storm during each 24-hour period, and allocates crews to each 12-hour day shift (that is, the PM shift) in each zone. The 12-hour night shifts default to zero crews since it is assumed that crews do not work as often at night. More crews are allocated to larger zones than smaller zones. All of these defaults are suggestions which can be updated depending on your needs.
  - Efficiency: Adjust the efficiency with which crews are able to restore outages, based on your knowledge of historical storms. Efficiency basically refers to how quickly the crews can work. The default efficiency values displayed are derived from predefined, utility-specific configurations for each storm class. Keep in mind the following notes:
  - You can edit the overall efficiency of the crews in each day and 12-hour period. The minimum efficiency you can choose is 1 and the maximum is 10. A 5 indicates that the crew is expected to be as efficient as the historical average efficiency.
  - You can enter decimals for a more precise efficiency estimate, such as 5.5. If you expect that the crews will work with higher efficiency than usual, then increase the number. If you expect that crews will work with low or moderate efficiency compared to average, then decrease the number.
  - Factors that may affect crew efficiency include the conditions of the roads and experience of the crew. For example, crews that come from other territories may not be as efficient as crews that know the area.
Click Create ERT.

The ERT is added to the Chart section of the information panel in the storm model, and an ERT curve is visualized in the graph. Additionally, the ERT you created displays sub timelines: a timeline showing the

Once you have created one or more ERTs, you can select one to be approved with the storm model.

Edit an ERT

As a storm moves through your service territory, you may want to edit an ERT to better match the latest information about the storm.

Note: You cannot edit an ERT if the storm model is already in an Approved state. In such cases, you must revert the storm model to a draft before you make any edits.

Sign in to Storm ERT.
From the Storm ERT dashboard, search for and click the name of the storm model that contains the ERT you want to edit.
In the storm model view, click the gear icon next to the ERT that you want to edit. See Create an ERT above for descriptions of each field.
When you are finished making edits, click Save.