Create and Edit a Storm Model

A storm model defines when a storm will come and estimates how long it will take to restore power to customers who lose power as a result of the storm. Storm models are typically created before a storm enters the service territory and remain in a Draft state until shortly after restoration activities begin.

After you create a storm model, you can edit its details and add one or more Estimated Restoration Timelines (ERTs) to it. The ERT results in a graphical chart for tracking and analysis.

On this page:

Create a Storm Model

  1. Sign in to Storm ERT.
  2. From the Storm ERT dashboard, click Create Storm Model.
  3. In the Storm Model Details page, complete the following fields:
    • Name: Add a distinct name for the storm model, such as Sally or Mark, or something based on an established convention in your organization.
    • Start Date: Set the date and time when the storm will enter your service territory.
    • Cut-Off Date: Set the date and time after which new outages will be excluded from the storm model. This is usually the date and time when the storm leaves your service territory. However, you may want to set the cut-off date and time to a time later than when the storm leaves. For example, if a storm leaves the area at 2 a.m., you may want to set the cut-off date and time to a time later in the morning, such as 11 a.m. on the same day. This way, any outages caused by the storm that customers report when they wake up in the morning will be included in the storm model.
    • End of Restoration (optional): Set the estimated date and time when you expect all outages will be fully restored. The date and time should be later than the Cut-Off Date. Even though this field is marked optional, it is highly recommended, since it is a way to indicate a definite end to the restorations even if there are still a few outages left. Refer to About Setting the End of Restoration for more details. You can set this field later if you want. For example, you can set it one or two weeks after the storm model has been approved and most of the outages have been restored.
    • Operating Company: Choose an operating company. This determines what storms will be listed on the Similar Storm Events page.
    • Exclude Single Customer: Select this option if you want to exclude any outages that affect a single customer rather than multiple customers simultaneously. It is recommended that you select this option if you want to exclude outliers that may skew the results of a storm ERT.
  1. Click Continue.
  2. In the Similar Storm Events page, select storm events that can be used as a basis for the ERT calculation. You must select at least one storm event.

    The list of similar storms is automatically derived from historical storm events and approved and archived storm model data. It is based on the dates you entered in the previous page as well as a set of weather factors (such as wind direction, wind speed, and precipitation rate) that are similar to the current forecast.

    The list is sorted by Similarity Score in descending order. Similarity scores range from 0 – 1, with 1 being the most similar. Similarity scores over a certain threshold are selected by default.

    Optionally, you can adjust the Weight of any storm events that have been selected. This will prioritize the ERT calculations of that storm relative to the other storm events. For example, you can increase the weight of recent storms above those that occurred in the more distant past.

    You can use the search bar to find a specific storm, or you can use one of the available filters:

    • State: The list of storms is pre-filtered to exclude storms in a Cancelled or Draft state.
    • Type: The type of storm. It is recommended that you choose a type so that you can more easily search by it later or make comparisons to other storms of the same type.
    • Level: The severity level of the storm. The meaning for each level varies by utility due to regional differences in weather patterns, so consult your internal documentation if you need guidance on which level to choose. (For example, in some regions a few inches of snow are considered a major snow storm, while in other regions it is considered minor.)

  3. Click Continue.

  4. In the Derived Properties page, review the properties derived from the previously selected similar storm events and update if needed:

    • Type: The type of storm.
    • Level: The severity level of the storm.
    • Estimate Customers: The estimated number of customers who may lose power.
    • Estimate Outages: The estimated number of outages that may occur.

  5. Click Continue.
  6. In the Affected Zones page, select the zones in your service territory that will be affected by the storm based on the forecasted path of the storm.

    Note: Only the zones under the operating company you selected in the Storm Model Details page will appear in the list.

  7. Click Continue.

  8. Optional. In the ERT Details page, complete the fields below.

    Note: If you do not want to create an ERT at this point, then you can click Cancel. Your storm model will be saved as a Draft and added to the dashboard. You can create an ERT for it later.

    • Name: Enter a distinct and concise name for the ERT. For example, you could use ERT1 to indicate that it is the first ERT created for the storm model. This name will be used as a label for the ERT after it is created.
    • Crew Schedules: If necessary, edit or adjust the prepopulated columns for the crew schedules of each zone. You will be able to update this information later. Initial crew shifts are split into two 12-hour periods of the day: 7 a.m. and 7 p.m. (The Global zone row is editable except for Efficiency.)
      • Estimated Customers: Adjust the estimated number of customers in the zone who are expected to lose power.
      • Estimated Outages: Adjust the estimated number of outages anticipated in the zone.
      • Day 1 AM Crews, Day 1 PM Crews, etc: Adjust the number of crews dispatched in each 12-hour period of a day as needed for each zone. (Day 1 AM Crews refers to the first 12 hours of day 1, Day 1 PM Crews refers to the second 12 hours of day 1, and so on.) The number you choose will likely depend on factors such as the storm class. For example, you may want to increase the number of crews planned for a class 2 storm as opposed to a class 1 storm. Changing a global crew number refreshes the zone level number with the new allocation where the values are proportional to the number of sub-zones.
      • Efficiency: The default efficiency is 5. Adjust the efficiency with which crews are able to restore outages, based on your knowledge of historical storms. Efficiency basically refers to how quickly the crews can work. The default efficiency values displayed are derived from predefined, utility-specific configurations for each storm class. For additional guidance on this action, see the correspond step in Create and Edit a Storm ERT.
  9. Click Create ERT.

The storm model and an associated ERT are created, and the storm model view opens.

About Setting the End of Restoration

The End of Restoration field is an optional field which allows you to specify a date and time when all outages were restored, and after which no remaining outages are counted. You can set the field when you first create the storm model or at a later time, such as one or more weeks after the storm has passed.

It is highly recommended that you set this field even if there are a few outages left. Sometimes those outages are outliers, and sometimes they are results of errors in the data. If the End of Restoration is not set, and a few outages remain, then the storm will be considered not fully restored.

A storm that is not fully restored can have several negative effects in the application. One effect is that the storm will skew the predictions of other storm models whose calculations are based on it. A second effect is that the ERT Details step in the Create ERT editor, as well as Workplan tab of another storm model, could display an inordinately large number of crew shifts for any similar storm that was not fully restored, since the application will assume that outages from such storms still need to be addressed. A third effect is that the storm restoration chart could display a graph that continues on indefinitely.

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Edit a Storm Model

You can edit a storm model's details as long as no ERTs have been created for it. If an ERT has already been created and you realize you need to edit the storm model details, then you must create a new storm model with the correct details. (You can cancel the storm model that has erroneous details.)

  1. Sign in to Storm ERT.
  2. From the Storm ERT dashboard, search for and click the name of the storm model you want to edit.
  3. In the storm view that opens, click Edit.
  4. On the Edit Storm Model page, edit the Storm Model Details and Affected Zones and click Save.

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