View a Storm Model
A storm model defines when a storm will come and estimates how long it will take to restore power to customers who lose power as a result of the storm. You can view a storm model by clicking its name from the Storm ERT Dashboard. The storm view that opens consists of multiple sections of information: a summary, timelines, workplan, and information panel.
On this page:
Summary
The summary appears at the top of the page and shows basic details about the storm model, such as its name, state, and start date. See List of Storm Models and Events for a description of each piece of information available.
The table below describes the possible states of a storm model and the actions you can perform based on each state.
| Storm Model State | Available Actions |
|---|---|
|
Draft |
|
|
Approved |
|
| Approval Initiated | Revert the storm model to a draft state. |
|
Cancelled |
Revert the storm model to a draft state. |
|
Archived |
Cancel the storm model. |
Timelines
The Timelines section includes a chart that visualizes any estimated restoration timelines (ERTs), actual restoration timelines (ARTs), percentage restored (% Restored), remaining outages associated with the storm model, and "tail mode" restoration curves. The actual restoration timeline is based on data from a connected outage management system.
Percentage restored and remaining outages apply to customers off supply and restored points for both actual and ERT curves. Percentage restored is calculated based on the estimated customer count after the cutoff date while remaining outages are based on unrestored outages.
Tail mode restoration curves are based on the calculated post-storm restoration rates and appear within one hour after the storm cut-off date. The restoration curves are generated by tallying the number of outages for each device type in each region (zone), averaging historical restoration rates, averaging the number of crews needed for each device type, and adjusting the historical restoration rates based on the current restoration rates.
Note: Oracle Energy and Water predicts the completion of each restoration job in each zone by the order of the remaining weighted customer count. Weighted customers are customers who are given higher-priority due to special circumstances (such as customers in schools or hospitals).
The chart in the Timelines section contains the following components:
- Region: A drop-down menu that lets you view timelines associated with different subareas in your service territory, such as by individual zones, zip codes, or municipalities. By default, the global ERT is selected. Zip code and municipality data is automatically derived from the outage data imported from the Oracle Utilities Network Management System or other connected outage management system after the storm start date. The number of sub-options in your service territory appear at the right of the subarea option as "(X)". For example, Zip Code (3).
- Customers Restored (Y-Axis): The number of customers who were restored after losing power during a storm.
- Customers Off Supply (Y-Axis): The number of customers who were off supply due to an outage.
- Timeline (X-Axis): The timeline of when customers were restored or when customers were off supply.
See Create and Edit a Storm ERT for more information about how to add ERTs to the chart.
Restoration Rates
The Restoration Rates section summarizes the average time to repair for each device type that broke or lost power during the outage. See About Post-Storm Estimated Restoration for more details. The table in the Restoration Rates section contains the following components:
- Zone: A drop-down menu that lets you view restoration rates associated with the individual zones in your service territory.
- Device Type: The name and device type associated with the storm model.
- Total Outages: The total number of device types broken during the outage.
- Total Restored: The total number of device types repaired after the Start Date.
- Hours Needed: The average number of hours needed to repair the device type. This number is calculated by subtracting on-site time (the time spent by the crew repairing the device) or en route time (the time that the crew gets on the road) from restore time (the time when the device was restored). If on-site time or en route time is not available, then "off time" is subtracted from restore time.
- Crews Needed: The average number of crews needed to repair the device type. A value of "0" may indicate that power was restored without sending a crew. For example, power may have been routed from a different location to restore the outage.
Note: The data displayed automatically adjusts depending on the restoration performance between the Start Date and the Cut-off Date.
Workplan
The Workplan section lets you edit crew allocations and crew efficiencies after a storm model has been approved. This allows you to create an up-to-date projection of when restoration activities will be completed. See Update a Storm Model's Workplan.
Information Panel
The information panel includes three tabs: Chart, Activity, and Details. Each tab gives you more information about the storm.
Chart
The options in the Chart tab dictate what appears in the Timelines section. The following options are available from this tab.
- Customers Restored: In this view, a line trends upward to represent the number of outages that have been restored over time.
- Customers Off Supply: In this view, a line trends downward to represent the number of customers who are off supply and being restored.
- Restoration Timelines: This option allows you to select ERTs and the actual restoration of a storm. If there are no ERTs and no restoration data has been imported from Oracle Utilities Network Management System (NMS) or another outage management system, then no data will appear on the chart. Additionally, the labels of the Similar Storm checkboxes appear as hyperlinks. Clicking a link opens the corresponding Storm Details page in a new tab.
- Milestones: This option allows you to select milestone percentages of 25%, 50%, 75%, 90%, and 95%. Milestones appear as vertical dotted lines and will be the same color as their associated ERT curve. If a milestone occurs at the same time for two different ERTs, then the dotted line may appear as one line because the two lines will be overlapping. In the Customers Restored view, the milestones represent the percentages of customers who have been restored. In the Customers Off Supply view, the percentages represent customers who are still off supply. Selecting a Milestones check box displays colored milestone bands in the chart. These bands display a 12-hour +/- time difference before and after the milestone line. Each band's tooltip describes the date boundaries and milestone associated with the band. This information is helpful if you need to quickly identify the before and after time boundaries of a milestone and communicate these to regulators.
Note: Milestones only apply to ERT curves and not actual restoration curves.
- Dates: This option allows you to select the start of storm date and storm cut-off date. These dates appear on the chart as blue, vertical dotted lines.
Activity
The Activity tab lists any changes made to the parameters of the storm model, including changes to any ERTs assigned to it. For example, you may see an entry that says, "State changed from Draft to Cancelled", along with the name of the user who made the change. Use this tab to track the editing activities of you and your colleagues over time.
Details
The Details tab shows information about the storm model that is not included in the summary, such as the season, storm type, storm level, any associated zone, whether single customer outages were excluded, storm duration, operating company, and end of restoration.