Forecasting Outages
Outage forecasting takes into account future storm load. It provides more accurate estimated restoration projections in the early stages of a storm by simulating the expected impact of the storm. Outage forecasting can be performed in a control zone at the simulation level currently operating storm mode.
Forecasting Outages by Percentage
To perform outage forecasting by percentage, complete these steps:
1. Make sure the Forecast Mode field in the Storm Report pane is set to % Change, and the current control zone is at the simulation level.
2. Click in the % Change cell beneath the Actual Outages column.
3. Revise the percentage in the cell to the value you want to use. This value must be greater than or equal to 100%.
4. Press Enter.
5. Click the Save Changes button on the toolbar or select Save Changes from the System menu. The following occurs:
• The value in the Actual Outages column for each outage category is multiplied by the percentage in the % Change row and the result is displayed in the Total Outages column for each outage type. If any outage type currently has an Actual Outages value of 0, then 0 will remain displayed in the Total Outages column until at least one event of that outage type appears.
• New outages that enter the system reflect the forecasting percentage and update the Total Outages column accordingly.
• During the next scheduled simulation, the Storm Management estimates calculation takes into account the increased outage percentage. The modified percentage stays in place until the value in the % Change row is changed back to 100 or until storm mode is exited for the control zone.
Forecasting Outages by Value
The Total Outages column of the Storm Report is a calculated column containing the number of total forecasted outages for each outage type. When the currently selected control zone is at the simulation level and operating in storm mode, you can override the value of this column by editing individual cells within the column.
To perform outage forecasting by value, complete these steps:
1. Make sure the Forecast Mode field is set to Value and the current control zone is at the simulation level.
2. Click in the cell beneath the Total Outages column for the Outage Type whose value you wish to forecast.
3. Enter the new value.
4. Click Enter.
5. Click the Save Changes button on the toolbar or select Save Changes from the System menu. The following occurs:
• The Total cell value beneath the Total Outages column updates to reflect the new sum using the modified forecast values.
• During the next scheduled simulation, the Storm Management estimates calculation takes into account the increased number of outages.
• As new outages enter the system, the Total Outages column stays the same until the number of Actual Outages for an outage type exceeds the number of total outages. Once that occurs, Value forecasting is no longer applied to that outage type.
Note: If you enter an invalid value into the Total Outages column, the cell reverts to its previous value when the Save button is pressed.