7.1.4 Computation of Forward Balances

The application provides the ability to compute the forward balance of assets and liabilities for multiple future dates as part of its forward liquidity calculation capability. It supports multiple methodologies for computing these forward balances which include:

  • Contractual Run Off
  • Equally Changing Balance
  • Balance Download
  • Balance Change Download
  • Constant Balance
  • Cash Flow Download Method

The application allows users to map the forward balance calculation methods to the desired dimensional combinations such as product-currency or simply a single dimension such as product through a rule defined as part of the Rule Run Framework. This mapping is to be done for all assets and liabilities, other than derivatives, based on a combination of the download dimensions supported for them for forward calculation. The list of download dimensions supported for forward calculations is detailed as part of section Granularity of Forward Records above.

The application supports a pre-configured rule for mapping the forward balance calculation methods named “LRM - Balance Method Reclassification - Forecast”. This has default values mapped for assets and liabilities. These default mappings can be changed by the users and the rule can be re-saved to reflect these changes. Alternatively, users can create their own mapping rules in the Rules Framework to address regulatory and risk management needs. However, only one mapping rule is allowed to be selected in the Run Management window for a given forward liquidity Run, based on which all further calculations are done as part of that forward Run.

The forward balance calculation methods supported by the application are explained in detail below:

1. Contractual Run Off

The steps involved in calculating balances at a forward date under contractual terms when the method is selected as “contractual run off” are as follows:

  1. The un-bucketed contractual cash flows based on the current date are obtained as a download. The current date is equal to the As of Date selected during Run Execution.
  2. The current balance of each account as of the “As of Date” is received. This is the starting balance for forward date calcuations.
  3. The application calculates the forward balance as of the first forward date as follows:

    This image displays the Balance F.

    Where:

    F: First forward date

    C: Current date i.e. As of Date selected in the Run Management window

    EOP Minimum Threshold: Floor for the account balance i.e. the minimum balance to be maintained at all times

  4. The application calculates the forward balance for each subsequent forward date as follows:

    This image displays the Balance F+x.

    Where:

    F + x: Each subsequent forward date

    x: Interval between each forward date

    Note:

    1. If a EOP minimum threshold is specified, the contractual cash flows are run-off only till the minimum threshold is reached. Any contractual cash flows which results in the forward balance dropping below the minimum threshold will not be run-off. Once the minimum threshold is reached, it is maintained as constant balance for all subsequent forward dates for that Run and dimensional combination. For instance the forward balance as of 31st December is 5200, minimum threshold is 5000 and contractual cash outflow between 31st December and the next forward date which is 31st January is 500. In this case, the balance as of 31st January is 5000 i.e. (minimum of 5000, 5200-500).
    2. If no minimum threshold is specified, then the application runs off the contractual cash flows till balance equals zero.

The contractual run-off method is illustrated below. The inputs required for this method are provided below considering the spot date as 03/01/2015. All values are in terms of US Dollars.

Table 6-4 Contractual run-off method

Product Spot Balance EOP Minimum Threshold
Loan 1 1,000
Loan 2 2,000
XYZ ( TD) 1,000
ABC ( Retail Lending ) 2,000
Loan 3 5,000
Advances 10,000
Demand Deposit 3,000
Loan 4 20,000 2,000
Loan 5 20,000 10,000
Loan 6 20,000 40,000

The contractual cash flow position as of the spot date for each product is as follows:

Table 6-5 Contractual cash flow position

Product Cash Flow Date Cash Flow Type Outflow Amount Inflow Amount
Loan 1 2-Mar-15 Outflow 1,000
Loan 2 2-Mar-15 Outflow 500
Loan 2 15-Mar-15 Outflow 400
Loan 2 1-Apr-15 Outflow 200
Loan 2 16-Apr-15 Outflow 600
Loan 2 1-May-15 Outflow 300
XYZ ( TD) 31-Mar-15 Outflow 1,000
ABC ( Retail Lending ) 3-Apr-15 Inflow 500
ABC ( Retail Lending ) 10-Apr-15 Inflow 800
ABC ( Retail Lending ) 25-Apr-15 Inflow 700
Loan 3 1-Jan-18 Inflow 5,000
Demand Deposit 2-Mar-15 Outflow 3,000
Advances 1-May-15 Outflow 1,500
Advances 5-May-15 Outflow 800
Advances 10-Jul-15 Outflow 500
Advances 11-Aug-15 Outflow 200
Advances 1-Dec-15 Outflow 5,000
Loan 4 4-Apr-15 Outflow 5,000
Loan 4 1-Aug-16 Outflow 2,000
Loan 5 1-Aug-16 Outflow 7,000
Loan 5 1-Sep-16 Outflow 7,000
Loan 6 1-Aug-16 Outflow 7,000
Loan 6 1-Sep-16 Outflow 7,000

The forward balances under different scenarios are explained as follows:

  • Scenario I : Entire balance is run off during the forecasting horizon
  • Scenario II : No run-off during the forecasting horizon
  • Scenario III: Balance is run-off partially during the forecasting horizon
  • Scenario IV : Entire balance has run-off prior to the first forward date
  • Scenario V: Balance runs-off on the first forward date after the spot date
  • Scenario VI: Run-offs are happening on the forward dates
  • Scenario VII: Run off is not happening till EOP minimum threshold
  • Scenario VIII: Balance runs-off till EOP minimum threshold
  • Scenario IX: EOP minimum threshold is more than spot EOP

Table 6-6 Forward balances under different scenarios

Forward Date Scenario Scenario II Scenario III Scenario IV Scenario V Scenario VI Scenario VII Scenario VIII Scenario IX
Retail Lending Loan 3 Advances Demand Deposit XYZ(TD) Loan 1 Loan 2 Loan 4 Loan 5 Loan 6
1-Apr-15 2,000 5,000 10,000 900 20,000 20,000 20,000
1-May-15 5,000 8,500 15,000 20,000 20,000
1-Jun-15 5,000 7,700 15,000 20,000 20,000
1-Jul-15 5,000 7,700 15,000 20,000 20,000
1-Aug-15 5,000 7,200 13,000 13,000 13,000
1-Sep-15 5,000 7,000 13,000 10,000 6,000
1-Oct-15 5,000 7,000 13,000 10,000 6,000
1-Nov-15 5,000 7,000 13,000 10,000 6,000
1-Dec-15 5,000 2,000 13,000 10,000 6,000
1-Jan-16 5,000 2,000 13,000 10,000 6,000
1-Feb-16 5,000 2,000 13,000 10,000 6,000
1-Mar-16 5,000 2,000 13,000 10,000 6,000

2. Equally Changing Balance

The steps involved in calculating balances at a forward date under contractual terms when the method is selected as “equally changing balance” are as follows:

  1. The following parameters are obtained as inputs:
    • First Forward Date Balance: This is the forward balance as of the first forward date. If this parameter is not provided, the application considers the spot balance as the first forward balance as well.
    • Forecasting Period: This is the number of calendar days over which the balance is changing equally i.e. either reducing or increasing in an equal manner. This is a mandatory parameter.
    • Last Forward Balance: This is the balance as of the last forward date and is an optional parameter. If this value is not provided, the balance is run-off equally to zero.

      Note:

      You are required to provide this parameter if an increase in forward balance vis-a-vis the spot balance is to be calculated.
  2. The application calculates the equally changing amount on each day as follows:
    1. When holidays are included:

      This image displays the Amount per Day.

    2. When holidays are excluded:

      This image displays the Amount per Day.

      Note:

      The equally changing amount computed here is the forward cash flow as of each calendar or business day depending on whether holidays are included or excluded. In case holidays are excluded for calculating the equally changing amount, the cash flows on such excluded days are 0.
  3. The balance for each dimensional combination on each forward date is calculated as follows:

    This image displays the Forward Balance F+x.

    Where

    F: Previous forward balance. The balance as of the first forward date is provided as a download.

    x: Interval between each forward date

    t: Time period between previous forward date (exclusive) to next forward date (inclusive)

    The equally changing balance method is illustrated below. The inputs required for this method are provided below. All values are in terms of US Dollars.

    Table 6-7 Equally changing balance method

    Input Calculation of Amount Per Day
    Product Name First Forward Balance (a) First Forward Date (b) Forecasting Period (in Days) (c) Last Forward Balance (d) Last Forward Date (b + c) Business Days in Forecasting Period (e) Amount Per Calendar Day (f = (a - d) ¸ c) Amount Per Business Day (g = (a - d) ¸ e)
    Loan 1 5,000 1-Apr-15 4 1,000 5-Apr-15 3 1000 1333
    Demand Deposit 3,000 1-Apr-15 7 1,000 8-Apr-15 6 286 333
    Advances 10,000 1-Apr-15 15 16-Apr-15 12 667 833
    Loan 2 10,000 1-Apr-15 5 15,000 6-Apr-15 4 -1000 -1250

    The calculation of forward balances is illustrated under the following scenarios:

    • Scenario I: When holidays are Excluded, Forecasting Period < Forecasting Horizon and EOP Balance is Reducing
    • Scenario II: When holidays are Included, Forecasting Period < Forecasting Horizon and EOP Balance is Reducing
    • Scenario III: When holidays are Excluded, Forecasting Period > Forecasting Horizon and EOP Balance is Reducing
    • Scenario IV: When holidays are Excluded, Forecasting Period > Forecasting Horizon and EOP Balance is Increasing

    Table 6-8 Calculation of forward balances

    Forward Date Holiday Scenario I Scenario II Scenario III Scenario IV
    Loan 1 Balance Demand Deposit Balance Loan 1 Balance Demand Deposit Balance Advances Balance Loan 2 Balance
    1-Apr-15 N 5,000 3,000 5,000 3,000 10,000 10,000
    2-Apr-15 N 3,667 2,667 4,000 2,714 9,167 11,250
    3-Apr-15 N 2,333 2,333 3,000 2,429 8,333 12,083
    4-Apr-15 Y 2,333 2,333 2,000 2,143 8,333 12,083
    5-Apr-15 Y 2,333 2,333 1,000 1,857 8,333 12,083
    6-Apr-15 N 1,000 2,000 1,000 1,571 7,500 12,917
    7-Apr-15 N 1,000 1,667 1,000 1,286 6,667 13,750
    8-Apr-15 N 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 5,833 15,000

3. Balance Download

The steps involved in calculating balances at a forward date under contractual terms when the method is selected as “balance download” are as follows:

  1. The forward balances for multiple forward dates are received as a download across dimensional combinations.
  2. The application computes the forward balance for missing forward dates as follows:
    1. If forward balance is not available for each forward date The missing forward balance is interpolated using the balances available on the dates immediately prior and immediately following the missing forward date as follows:

      Figure 6-1 Yt


      This image displays the Yt calculation.

      Where

      Yt: Missing forward balance

      Yt-1: Known balance on forward date immediately preceding the missing forward date

      Yt+1: Balance on forward date immediately succeeding the missing forward date

      t: Cumulative time, in days, from first forward date to each subsequent forward date. The cumulative time is based on business days if holidays are to be excluded and based on calendar days if holidays are to be included.

      An example of interpolation when frequency of forward dates is a week and holidays are included is as follows.

      Table 6-9 Interpolation when frequency of forward dates

      Input Calculation
      Forward Date Forward Balance Download Value Period Start Period End Cumulative Calendar Days Missing Forward Balance
      31-Jan-14 742 31-Jan-14 31-Jan-14 1
      07-Feb-14 438 01-Feb-14 07-Feb-14 8
      14-Feb-14 08-Feb-14 14-Feb-14 15 521
      21-Feb-14 604 15-Feb-14 21-Feb-14 22
      28-Feb-14 859 22-Feb-14 28-Feb-14 29
      07-Mar-14 426 01-Mar-14 07-Mar-14 36
      14-Mar-14 268 08-Mar-14 14-Mar-14 43
      21-Mar-14 379 15-Mar-14 21-Mar-14 50
      28-Mar-14 22-Mar-14 28-Mar-14 57 546
      04-Apr-14 29-Mar-14 04-Apr-14 64 712
      11-Apr-14 05-Apr-14 11-Apr-14 71 879
      18-Apr-14 1045 12-Apr-14 18-Apr-14 78

      An example of interpolation when frequency of forward dates is a week and holidays are excluded is as follows:

      Table 6-10 Interpolation when frequency of forward dates

      Input Calculation
      Forward Date Forward Balance Download Value Period Start Period End Cumulative Calendar Days Missing Forward Balance
      31-Jan-14 742 31-Jan-14 31-Jan-14 1
      07-Feb-14 438 01-Feb-14 07-Feb-14 6
      14-Feb-14 08-Feb-14 14-Feb-14 11 521
      21-Feb-14 604 15-Feb-14 21-Feb-14 16
      28-Feb-14 859 22-Feb-14 28-Feb-14 21
      07-Mar-14 426 01-Mar-14 07-Mar-14 26
      14-Mar-14 268 08-Mar-14 14-Mar-14 30
      21-Mar-14 379 15-Mar-14 21-Mar-14 35
      28-Mar-14 22-Mar-14 28-Mar-14 39 506
      04-Apr-14 29-Mar-14 04-Apr-14 44 664
      11-Apr-14 05-Apr-14 11-Apr-14 48 791
      18-Apr-14 1045 12-Apr-14 18-Apr-14 56

      Note:

      Business days exclude weekends and other holidays.
    2. If a forward balance is not available on the last forward date

      The missing forward balance is extrapolated using the forward balances available on the two dates immediately prior to the missing forward date as follows:


      This image displays the Yt calculation.

      Where

      Yt: Missing observation i.e. value of the forward balance to be forecasted at time ‘t’

      Yt-1: Known value of observation at time‘t-1’

      Yt-2: Known value of observation at time‘t-2’

      t: Cumulative time, in days, from start date of the first observation period to the end of each observation period

      An example of extrapolation when frequency of forward dates is a month and holidays are included is as follows:

      Table 6-11 Extrapolation when frequency of forward dates

      Input Calculation
      Forward Date Forward Balance Download Value Period Start Period End Cumulative Calendar Days Missing Forward Balance
      31-Jan-14 742 31-Jan-14 31-Jan-14 1
      28-Feb-14 438 01-Feb-14 28-Feb-14 29
      31-Mar-14 724 01-Mar-14 31-Mar-14 60
      30-Apr-14 603 01-Apr-14 30-Apr-14 90
      31-May-14 859 01-May-14 31-May-14 121
      30-Jun-14 426 01-Jun-14 30-Jun-14 151
      31-Jul-14 268 01-Jul-14 31-Jul-14 182
      31-Aug-14 379 01-Aug-14 31-Aug-14 213
      30-Sep-14 01-Sep-14 30-Sep-14 243 486
      31-Oct-14 01-Oct-14 31-Oct-14 274 597
      30-Nov-14 01-Nov-14 30-Nov-14 304 705
      31-Dec-14 01-Dec-14 31-Dec-14 335 816

      An example of extrapolation when frequency of forward dates is a month and holidays are excluded is as follows:

      Table 6-12 Frequency of forward dates

      Input Calculation
      Forward Date Forward Balance Download Value Period Start Period End Cumulative Business Days Missing Forward Balance
      31-Jan-14 742 31-Jan-14 31-Jan-14 1
      28-Feb-14 438 01-Feb-14 28-Feb-14 21
      31-Mar-14 724 01-Mar-14 31-Mar-14 42
      30-Apr-14 603 01-Apr-14 30-Apr-14 64
      31-May-14 859 01-May-14 31-May-14 86
      30-Jun-14 426 01-Jun-14 30-Jun-14 107
      31-Jul-14 268 01-Jul-14 31-Jul-14 130
      31-Aug-14 379 01-Aug-14 31-Aug-14 151
      30-Sep-14 01-Sep-14 30-Sep-14 173 495
      31-Oct-14 01-Oct-14 31-Oct-14 196 617
      30-Nov-14 01-Nov-14 30-Nov-14 216 723
      31-Dec-14 01-Dec-14 31-Dec-14 239 844

      Note:

      1. If there is only 1 known observation, then the missing observation is estimated as the value of the preceding known observation.
      2. If the balance is not provided for the first forward date in the forecasting horizon, the application will not compute the forward balance for such a dimensional combination. First forward balance is mandatory.
      3. If the last forward date and corresponding balance provided as a download occurs after the last date in the forecasting horizon, only those balances missing till the end of the forecasting horizon are interpolated.
      4. The application supports only the Balance Download Method or Constant Balance Method for computing forward balances for liquidity pool assets i.e. those assets which are controlled by treasury.

4. Balance Change Download

The steps involved in calculating balances at a forward date under contractual terms when the method is selected as “balance change download” are as follows:

  1. The balance change for multiple forward dates is received as a download across dimensional combinations. A positive value indicates an increase in balance while a negative value indicates reduction.
  2. The spot balances are identified for the same dimensional combination as the balance change download.
  3. The application calculates the forward balance as of each day as follows:

    This image displays the Forward Balance F.

    Where:

    F: Each forward date for which balance is calculated

    F – x: Previous forward date for which calculations are done

    x: Interval between each forward date

    t: Time period between previous forward date (exclusive) to next forward date (inclusive)

    Note:

    1. If no balance change is specified for time period between previous forward date to next forward date, then the balance calculated as of the previous forward date is assumed to continue “as-is”.
    2. If no balance change is specified for the first forward date, the spot balance is assumed to continue.

    The following is an example for Balance Change Download:

    Input:

    Table 6-13 Balance Change Download

    Product Currency N_EOP_BAL N_EOP_BAL_RCY N_EOP_BAL_LCY N_AS_OF_DATE
    Term Deposit USD 10000 10000 10000 12/31/2014
    Term Deposit INR 2000000 33333 2000000 12/31/2014

    Table 6-14 Balance Change Download

    Product Currency Balance Change Amount Balance Change Amount Date Forward Date
    Term Deposit USD 26 1/1/2015 2/1/2015
    Term Deposit USD 66 1/2/2015 2/1/2015
    Term Deposit USD 21 1/5/2015 2/1/2015
    Term Deposit USD -52 1/6/2015 2/1/2015
    Term Deposit USD 62 1/7/2015 2/1/2015
    Term Deposit USD -95 1/8/2015 2/1/2015
    Term Deposit USD 0 1/9/2015 2/1/2015
    Term Deposit USD 0 1/12/2015 2/1/2015
    Term Deposit USD 0 1/13/2015 2/1/2015
    Term Deposit USD 0 1/14/2015 2/1/2015
    Term Deposit USD 78 1/15/2015 2/1/2015
    Term Deposit USD 43 1/16/2015 2/1/2015
    Term Deposit USD -79 1/19/2015 2/1/2015
    Term Deposit USD 57 1/20/2015 2/1/2015
    Term Deposit USD 29 1/21/2015 2/1/2015
    Term Deposit USD -56 1/22/2015 2/1/2015
    Term Deposit USD 22 1/23/2015 2/1/2015
    Term Deposit USD 61 1/26/2015 2/1/2015
    Term Deposit USD 93 1/27/2015 2/1/2015
    Term Deposit USD -73 1/28/2015 2/1/2015
    Term Deposit USD 5 1/29/2015 2/1/2015
    Term Deposit USD 42 1/30/2015 2/1/2015
    Term Deposit USD 10 2/1/2015 2/1/2015
    Term Deposit USD 11 2/2/2015 3/1/2015
    Term Deposit USD 12 2/3/2015 3/1/2015
    Term Deposit USD 13 2/4/2015 3/1/2015
    Term Deposit USD 14 2/5/2015 3/1/2015
    Term Deposit USD 15 2/6/2015 3/1/2015
    Term Deposit USD 23 2/9/2015 3/1/2015
    Term Deposit USD 17 2/10/2015 3/1/2015
    Term Deposit USD 18 2/11/2015 3/1/2015
    Term Deposit USD 34 2/12/2015 3/1/2015
    Term Deposit USD 20 2/13/2015 3/1/2015
    Term Deposit USD 21 2/16/2015 3/1/2015
    Term Deposit USD 22 2/17/2015 3/1/2015
    Term Deposit USD 23 2/18/2015 3/1/2015
    Term Deposit USD 24 2/19/2015 3/1/2015
    Term Deposit USD 3 2/20/2015 3/1/2015
    Term Deposit USD 26 2/23/2015 3/1/2015
    Term Deposit USD 27 2/24/2015 3/1/2015
    Term Deposit USD 28 2/25/2015 3/1/2015
    Term Deposit USD 29 2/26/2015 3/1/2015
    Term Deposit USD 3 2/27/2015 3/1/2015
    Term Deposit USD -10 3/1/2015 3/1/2015
    Term Deposit INR -41020 1/1/2015 2/1/2015
    Term Deposit INR 80810 1/2/2015 2/1/2015
    Term Deposit INR 35960 1/5/2015 2/1/2015
    Term Deposit INR -36810 1/6/2015 2/1/2015
    Term Deposit INR 76760 1/7/2015 2/1/2015
    Term Deposit INR -79960 1/8/2015 2/1/2015
    Term Deposit INR -15000 1/9/2015 2/1/2015
    Term Deposit INR -15000 1/12/2015 2/1/2015
    Term Deposit INR -15000 1/13/2015 2/1/2015
    Term Deposit INR -15000 1/14/2015 2/1/2015
    Term Deposit INR -93350 1/15/2015 2/1/2015
    Term Deposit INR -58280 1/16/2015 2/1/2015
    Term Deposit INR -64150 1/19/2015 2/1/2015
    Term Deposit INR 72180 1/20/2015 2/1/2015
    Term Deposit INR 43710 1/21/2015 2/1/2015
    Term Deposit INR -40990 1/22/2015 2/1/2015
    Term Deposit INR 36810 1/23/2015 2/1/2015
    Term Deposit INR 75630 1/26/2015 2/1/2015
    Term Deposit INR 108470 1/27/2015 2/1/2015
    Term Deposit INR -58170 1/28/2015 2/1/2015
    Term Deposit INR 20060 1/29/2015 2/1/2015
    Term Deposit INR 56580 1/30/2015 2/1/2015
    Term Deposit INR 25000 2/1/2015 2/1/2015
    Term Deposit INR 26000 2/2/2015 3/1/2015
    Term Deposit INR 27000 2/3/2015 3/1/2015
    Term Deposit INR -28000 2/4/2015 3/1/2015
    Term Deposit INR -28000 2/5/2015 3/1/2015
    Term Deposit INR 280000 2/6/2015 3/1/2015
    Term Deposit INR -280000 2/9/2015 3/1/2015
    Term Deposit INR -28000 2/10/2015 3/1/2015
    Term Deposit INR -28000 2/11/2015 3/1/2015
    Term Deposit INR -50000 2/12/2015 3/1/2015
    Term Deposit INR -50000 2/13/2015 3/1/2015
    Term Deposit INR -50000 2/16/2015 3/1/2015
    Term Deposit INR 50000 2/17/2015 3/1/2015
    Term Deposit INR -50000 2/18/2015 3/1/2015
    Term Deposit INR -50000 2/19/2015 3/1/2015
    Term Deposit INR -50000 2/20/2015 3/1/2015
    Term Deposit INR -50000 2/23/2015 3/1/2015
    Term Deposit INR -50000 2/24/2015 3/1/2015
    Term Deposit INR -50000 2/25/2015 3/1/2015
    Term Deposit INR 44000 2/26/2015 3/1/2015
    Term Deposit INR 18000 2/27/2015 3/1/2015
    Term Deposit INR 5000 3/1/2015 3/1/2015

    Table 6-15 Output

    Product Currency N_EOP_BAL N_EOP_BAL_LCY N_EOP_BAL_RCY D_FORWARD_DATE
    Term Deposit USD 10260 10260 10260 2/1/2015
    Term Deposit INR 2099240 2099240 34987 2/1/2015
    Term Deposit USD 10633 10633 10633 3/1/2015
    Term Deposit INR 1707240 1707240 28454 3/1/2015

5. Constant Balance

The current contractual balance is held constant for each of the forward dates.

The application calculates the forward dates required for a particular run using the forward date calculation. Once forward dates are determined the forecasted balance is calculated for all forward dates.

The constant balance method is illustrated below. The spot information is as follows:

Table 6-16 Constant balance method

As of Date 31-Dec-14
Product Term Deposit
Currency USD
Current Balance 1,000

The forward balance, in case of the constant balance method, is calculated as follows:

Table 6-17 Forward balance

Forward Date Forward Balance
1-Jan-15 1,000
1-Feb-15 1,000
1-Mar-15 1,000
1-Apr-15 1,000
1-May-15 1,000

6. Cash Flow Download Method

This method computes the balances for each forward date by summing up the forward cash flows received as download for that forward date. Refer to section Forward Cash Flow Method Mapping Rule in Run Parameters section of the OFS Liquidity Risk Measurement and Management User Guide on OHC Documentation Library for more details.