Suppose you have estimated sales data from a compatible application, Oracle BI EE, within Oracle Hyperion Smart View for Office, Fusion Edition on Sheet 1, as shown in Figure 12, Estimated Quarterly Sales Figures. You want to know the probability of earning first quarter sales revenue between 36 and 40 million dollars.
In this example, Oracle BI EE and Oracle Crystal Ball Enterprise Performance Management, Fusion Edition data appear on two different sheets of the same workbook. This is not a requirement; they could be in separate workbooks or even on the same worksheet. |
You can create Crystal Ball data on Sheet 2 with worst-case and best-case estimates for the three regions to estimate sales for Q1 of the following year. These estimates are made with formulas that include cell references to the Oracle BI EE data on Sheet 1. The most likely column is empty for now (Figure 13, Worst-case, Best-case, and Most Likely Estimates for Q1).
Now, suppose you create Crystal Ball assumptions in cells D4, D5, and D6. You create these using triangular distributions with cell references to columns C and E of Sheet 2 for the Minimum and Maximum parameters and a reference to the Q1 estimate in Oracle Business Intelligence Enterprise Edition on Sheet 1 for the Likeliest parameter value (Figure 14, Crystal Ball Assumption, Defined with Cell References).
In addition to these assumptions, you create a quarterly forecast in cell D8. Its formula is the sum of cells D4 through D6.
When you run the simulation, all the cell references are used as parameters for the triangular distributions defined in cells D4 through D6. With Crystal Ball cell preferences set to show the mean of the distribution for each assumption, Sheet 2 with Oracle Crystal Ball, Fusion Edition data appears as shown in Figure 15, Crystal Ball EPM Model with Simulation Data Means.
A forecast chart is generated for the forecast defined in cell D8 (Figure 16, First Quarter Revenue Forecast). It shows that the certainty, or probability, of sales revenue between 36 and 40 million dollars in the first quarter is 83.15%.
For a more direct way to perform similar forecasts with Oracle Essbase or Oracle Hyperion Planning, Fusion Edition, see Using the Crystal Ball Enterprise Performance Management Connector.