Project Selection OptQuest Solution

  With Project Selection.xls open in Crystal Ball, start OptQuest from the Crystal Ball Run menu. Then:

  1. Start the OptQuest wizard.

  2. On the Objectives panel, set the objective to Maximize the Final Value of Total profit. Notice that there are no requirements.

  3. Click Next to step through the problem and notice the following:

    • There are eight decision variables.

    • There is one constraint representing the budget limitations. Note the use of Microsoft Excel’s SUMPRODUCT function in the constraint to create a linear combination of the decision variables and investment amounts.

  4. On the Options panel, click Advanced Options and select Automatically stop after 500 non-improving solutions.

  5. Run the optimization.

Figure 39, Project selection model optimization results shows the results of an OptQuest optimization. The best solution identified selects all the projects except for 2, 3, and 7.

Figure 39. Project selection model optimization results

Project selection model optimization results.

Figure 40, Project selection solution forecast chart, the forecast chart for Total Profit, shows that the distribution of profits is highly irregular, and depends on the joint success rate of the chosen projects. There is a risk of realizing a loss. You may want to evaluate the risks associated with some of the other solutions identified during the search.

Figure 40. Project selection solution forecast chart

Project selection solution forecast chart.