Oil Field Development OptQuest Solution

Note:

Except where indicated, this example uses the recommended Crystal Ball run preferences. See Setting Crystal Ball Run Preferences.

  Be sure Oil Field Development.xls is open in Crystal Ball. Then:

  1. Start the OptQuest wizard.

    As you click Next to step through the problem, note:

    • The objective is to maximize the 10th percentile (P90) of the NPV.

    • There are no requirements.

    • There are three decision variables: Wells to drill (cell C8), Facility size (cell C12), and Plateau rate (cell C15).

    • This problem has no constraints.

  2. On the Options panel, click Advanced Options and select Automatically stop after 500 non-improving solutions.

  3. Run the optimization.

    The results are shown in Figure 46, Oil field development optimization results. The 10th percentile of NPV is maximized at 195.50 with a facility size of 100, a plateau rate of 10.4, and 14 wells to drill.

    Figure 46. Oil field development optimization results

    Oil field development optimization results.

The Crystal Ball simulation of this solution in Figure 47, Oil field development solution (percentile view) maximizes the 10th percentile (P90) of the NPV with the same result shown in the OptQuest solution window..

Figure 47. Oil field development solution (percentile view)

Oil field development solution (percentile view).