Durbin-Watson

Detects autocorrelation at lag 1. This means that each time-series value influences the next value. This is the most common type of autocorrelation.For the formula, see the Oracle Crystal Ball Statistical Guide.

This statistic can have any value between 0 and 4. Values indicate slow-moving, none, or fast-moving autocorrelation (Table 4).

Table 4. Interpreting the Durbin Watson Statistic

Durbin-Watson Statistic	Interpretation
Less than 1	The errors are positively correlated. An increase in one period follows an increase in the previous period.
2	No autocorrelation.
More than 3	The errors are negatively correlated. An increase in one period follows a decrease in the previous period.

Avoid using independent variables that have errors with a strong positive or negative correlation, because this can lead to an incorrect forecast for the dependent variable.