Analyzing Certainty—Model Results

The forecast results in graphic and numeric form show the values generated for each forecast and also the probability of obtaining any value. Crystal Ball normalizes these probabilities to calculate another important number: the certainty. Forecast charts (Table 1, Crystal Ball Charts) are key analysis tools.

The chance of any forecast value falling between –Infinity and +Infinity is always 100%. However, the chance — or certainty — of that same forecast being at least zero (which you may want to calculate to make sure that you make a profit) may be only 45%. For any range you define, Crystal Ball calculates the resulting certainty. This way, not only do you know that the company has a chance to make a profit, but you can also quantify that chance by saying that the company has a 45% chance of making a profit on a venture (a venture you may, therefore, decide to skip).