The main tools for analyzing simulation results are the Crystal Ball charts, especially forecast charts. During a simulation, Crystal Ball creates a forecast chart for each forecast cell. Forecast charts condense much information into a small space. You can display that information graphically and numerically. You can also display other kinds of charts (Analyzing Other Charts), generate reports, and extract data for further processing using Microsoft Excel or other analysis tools (Creating Reports and Extracting Data).
The following steps can help with analysis by focusing on details and general trends:
Consider each forecast chart from a high-level viewpoint. Look at the shape of the distribution:
Is it distributed normally or skewed negatively or positively?
Is it “flat” (spread out on both sides of the mean) or “peaked” (with most values clustered closely around the mean)?
Does it have a single mode (most likely value) or is it bimodal with several peaks or humps?
Is it continuous or are there groups of values separated from the rest, maybe even extreme values that fall outside of the display range?
The statistical concepts in the Oracle Crystal Ball Reference and Examples Guide can help with this part of the analysis.
Look at the certainty level, the probability of achieving values within a certain range.
You can enter a range, such as all values greater than $0 dollars if you are analyzing profits, and view the certainty of falling within the range ($0 to + Infinity, in this case). You can also enter a certainty, say 75%, and see what range of values would be required to meet that level (Determining the Certainty Level).
You can change the display range to focus on different sections of the forecast chart. For example, you can set the display range to focus on just the upper or lower tail of the forecast (Focusing on the Display Range).
Look at different views of the forecast.
Use the View menu to switch among different ways of viewing the forecast distribution graphically (frequency, cumulative frequency, or reverse cumulative frequency) or numerically (statistics, percentiles, goodness of fit data, or capability metrics). You can also select whether to show charts and statistics simultaneously or separately (Changing the Distribution View and Interpreting Statistics).
Use the chart preferences to change graphic presentations from bars to areas or lines, or experiment with different colors, 2D versus 3D, more or fewer plotted intervals or data points, and other display variations for presentation and analysis (Setting Chart Preferences).
Create other kinds of charts (Table 1, Crystal Ball Charts).
Selecting different views of the data can help you analyze it and present it to others.
Create reports with charts and data (Creating Reports).
Extract simulation results to Microsoft Excel for numeric analysis and presentation or for further export into other analytical tools (Extracting Data).
Use Crystal Ball tools for different types of analyses (Crystal Ball Tools).