9 In-Season/Historical Analysis

In-season/historical analysis is the eighth step in the AP business process. This process step includes the following tasks:

• In-Season Analysis Task

• Historical Analysis Task

Table 9-1 Business Role in Size/Pack Allocation

	The Senior Buyer and Buyer Analyst review in-season trends, make extend/markdown/add choices, review plans and trend/historical performance.
	The Merchandise Planner reviews sell-thru and Buy Plan changes.
	The Allocator executes the inventory strategy.

In-Season Analysis Task

This task includes one step with a number of tabs to support the various types of analysis required in-season. It is expected that the Buyer has re-trended the Buying Plan before using the Extend-Markdown-Drop functionality contained in this task.

Create the In-Season Analysis Workbook

To create the In-Season Analysis workbook:

1. Select the New Workbook icon in the In-Season Analysis task.

   Figure 9-1 In-Season Analysis Task

   
   

   The workbook wizard opens.

2. In the Select Looks page, select the looks to be loaded into the workbook. Click Finish.

   Figure 9-2 Workbook Wizard Select Look(s) Page

   
   

   The workbook is created.

In-Season Analysis Step

This step has the following tabs and views:

• Extend/Markdown Drop Tab:

  • Extend - Markdown - Drop Analysis View

  • Attribute Filtering View

  • Metric Scoring View

• Sales & Margin Tab:

  • Sales & Margin Analysis View

  • Attribute Filtering View

• Look Tab:

  • Look Performance by Attribute View

• Cluster Tab:

  • Cluster Performance by Attribute View

• Curves Tab:

  • Planned vs. Actual Sales Curves View

• Size Breaks Tab:

  • Broken Size Sell-Thru Analysis View

  • Set Sell-Thru Risk Factor View

• Color Break Tab:

  • Broken Color Sell-Thru Analysis View

  • Set Sell-Thru Risk Factor View

Extend/Markdown Drop Tab

On this tab, the Buyer executes the in-season process of Extend (carry the style or style-color longer), Markdown (begin to mark the item down earlier than planned) and Drop (Exit the item earlier than planned. This could be due to faster or slower sales than planned).

This tab includes a variety of measures that enable three important areas of analysis for the Buyer:

1. Where am I trending to end a Look in terms of sales, margin and inventory for a given Subclass?

2. What styles or style-colors and/or clusters are contributing to the good or bad trended performance?

3. What actions do I need to take and can I take to correct the trends that are pointing to any negative end of Look projections (even selling better than plan early in the life-cycle can be a problem if that leaves me without any inventory of the desirable items later).

It is expected that the Buyer has re-trended the Buying Plan before using the Extend-Markdown-Drop functionality.

Extend - Markdown - Drop Analysis View

In this view, the Buyer views the trending positions for each style-color in the look and sees projected ending inventory positions and a recommendation for what can be done. There are several possible recommendations:

Recommendation	Description
New	The style or style-color is too new to recommend anything (too few days of sales have occurred). Newness is based on the number that the Buyer enters into the Days = New scoring measure. If the number of selling days for the style or style-color is less than the number in that measure, the recommendation will return as New.
Move Up Exit Date	This recommendation will return if the style or style-color is no longer new but its sell-thru to date is well ahead of plan (greater than the Sell-Thru % Too High scoring measure) that the only recourse is to exit it earlier than planned. By exiting it earlier, the Buyer can replace it with a style or style-color with more available inventory so that total sales for the Collection or Look, and so on, do not slow down due to the lack of inventory of a hot selling style of style-color.
Buy Qty/Order Cancel	This recommendation will return if there are buy quantities or open orders (orders that are not fully received against), its sell-thru to date is far behind plan (if less than the Sell-Thru % Too Low scoring measure) meaning it is too late to change the course of sales for the balance of the life of the style or style-color. Too late to change is based on the number of days entered into the (Days = Late scoring measure).
Start Clearance Now	This measure will return if the style or style-color meets all of the requirements of the prior recommendation, except that there are no remaining buy quantities or open orders, markdowns have already begun and the Clearance Start Date is in the future (beyond today). This recommendation means the Buyer should move up the clearance date as the style or style-color's sell-thru trajectory is not going to recover to the point that delaying deeper mark down activity will cause more margin harm later.
Extend Selling Period	This is the counterpart to Start Clearance Now with all of the same triggers except that no Permanent Markdowns have been taken. This message recommends the Buyer extend the full price selling period and add some temporary markdowns as it is not yet too late to try smaller markdowns with hopes of delivering better sell-thru prior to the deeper markdowns found in Clearance.
No Change	This recommendation returns if the item has enough sales history to no longer be considered new and is selling well enough to not warrant any changes to the buy quantities, pricing strategy, or clearance start/exit dates.

Figure 9-3 Extend / Markdown / Drop Analysis View

Figure 9-4 Style-Color Pop-up Window Accessible in the Extend/Markdown/Drop Analysis View

Attribute Filtering View

The measures in this view can control the styles and style-colors visible in the Extend / Markdown / Drop view.

Figure 9-5 Attribute Filtering View

Metric Scoring View

The measures in this view control the recommendation calculation in the Extend / Markdown / Drop view. The previous chart explains their use.

Figure 9-6 Metric Scoring View

Sales & Margin Tab

This tab has one view.

Sales & Margin Analysis View

In this view, the Buyer views re-projected (from their Buying Plan) Working Plan version sales, margin, receipts, and inventory performance versus their Current Plan Version of the Buying Plan versus the Merchandise Financial Plan (that was spread down to the cluster level).

Figure 9-7 Sales & Margin Analysis View

Attribute Filtering View

The measures in this view control the styles and style-colors visible in the Sales & Margin Analysis view.

Figure 9-8 Attribute Filtering View

Look Tab

This tab contains one view.

Look Performance by Attribute View

In this view, the Buyer can view each look's actual to date sales and margin performance by cluster (plus some key Current Plan versions of the Buying Plan).

Figure 9-9 Look Performance by Attribute View

Cluster Tab

This tab has one view.

Cluster Performance by Attribute View

In this view, the Buyer can review each cluster's actual to date (across all look's in the workbook) sales and margin performance (plus some key Current Plan versions of the Buying Plan) by product attribute.

Figure 9-10 Cluster Performance by Attribute View

Curves Tab

This tab has one view.

Planned vs. Actual Sales Curves View

In this view, the Buyer can compare the sales curve used to seed the Buying Plan versus actuals.

Figure 9-11 Planned vs. Actual Sales Curves View

Attribute Filtering View

The measures in this view control the styles and style-colors visible in the Planned vs. Actual Sales Curves view.

Figure 9-12 Attribute Filtering View

Size Breaks Tab

This tab shows analysis regarding actual size breaks at an aggregate of Store, Site, Application (Points of Commerce). Once a few of a style-color's sizes begin to run out of stock (and fulfilling the definition of being broken on sizes), sales begin to taper off more dramatically than based solely on the ratio of sizes out of stock. The display will begin to look ragged and the customer faces the issue of not wanting to buy the last item on the rack at full margin (as it was rejected by everyone else). This view helps to keep tabs on any looming size breaks.

Broken Size Sell-Thru Analysis View

This view shows the size break analysis.

Figure 9-13 Broken Size Sell-Thru Analysis Curves View

Set Sell-Thru Risk Factor View

The measure in this view determines the level of sell-thru required to meet the definition of a size break.

Figure 9-14 Set Sell-Thru Risk Factor View

Color Break Tab

This tab shows analysis regarding projected and actual color breaks at an aggregate of Store, Site, Application (Points of Commerce). Once a few of a style's colors begin to run out of stock (and fulfilling the definition of being broken on colors), sales begin to taper off more dramatically than based solely on the ratio of colors out of stock. The display will begin to look ragged and Customer faces the issue of not wanting to buy the last item on the rack at full margin (as it was rejected by everyone else). This view helps to keep tabs on any looming color breaks.

Broken Color Sell-Thru Analysis View

This view shows the color break analysis.

Figure 9-15 Broken Color Sell-Thru Analysis Curves View

Set Sell-Thru Risk Factor View

The measure in this view determines the level of sell-thru required to meet the definition of a color break.

Figure 9-16 Set Sell-Thru Risk Factor View

Historical Analysis Task

This task includes one step with a number of tabs to support the various types of analysis required for historical analysis (the Buyer can view past, present and future time periods in these views).

These views are designed to give the Buyer and team better visibility into the trends that impact the assortment. These trends could manifest themselves in terms of product attributes, colors, customer segment preferences, how it is sold in direct channels (there are more nuanced measures available in the direct channels), and preferences for where the style-color was sold versus where it was fulfilled.

Create the Historical Analysis Workbook

To create the Historical Analysis workbook:

1. Select the New Workbook icon the Historical Analysis task.

   Figure 9-17 Historical Analysis Task

   
   

   The workbook wizard opens.

2. Select the Styles (or higher), Weeks (or higher), and the PoCs (stores, sites or applications and higher) to be loaded into the workbook. Click Finish.

   Figure 9-18 Workbook Wizard Select Product(s) Page

   
   

   The workbook is created.

Historical Assortment Analysis Step

This step has the following tabs and views:

• Fulfillment Tab:

  • Fulfillment Metrics View

• Direct Tab:

  • Direct Performance Metrics View

• Product Attributes Tab:

  • Performance by Attribute View

• Customer Tab:

  • Customer Sales Analysis View

  • Customer Attributes View

  • Product Attributes View

Fulfillment Tab

This tab has one view.

Fulfillment Metrics View

In this view, the Buyer can view the sales and margin that originated in a site, store, or app (or at an aggregate) and what percentage was fulfilled by each fulfillment type. For example, Mobile App X sold 500 units of sweaters:

• 40% were picked up by a customer in a store

• 40% were delivered to the customer's home

• 20% were delivered to someone other than the paying customer (as a gift)

There are some sample fulfillment options in the GA version, but the Buyer can tailor it to meet the fulfillment options.

Figure 9-19 Fulfillment Metrics View

Direct Tab

This tab has one view.

Direct Performance Metrics View

The Buyer can view the steps involved in the following:

• Making a Direct Channel (web, mobile, social) purchase and determine how close they were to getting a sale. For example, if a style-color is missing its plan but leads in abandoned baskets, then it may not be the item itself, but the price or the shipping cost, and so on, as opposed to another item with equally poor sales that is put into baskets at a much lower rate (where the item is less desirable).

• Fulfilling and returning a Direct Channel (web, mobile, social) purchase and determining if there was a fill rate or quality issue (leading to higher than normal returns) for the style-color (or higher).

Figure 9-20 Direct Performance Metrics View

Product Attributes Tab

This tab has one view.

Performance by Attribute View

In this view, the Buyer can view historical (TY and LY) and Buy Plan Working Plan and Current Plan versions of sales, margin, returns, receipts and inventory by Product Attribute (and Endeca search results if available). This view can help identify product attribute based trends and the success of those trends, for example, evolving customer preferences by silhouette, color family, price tier, and so on.

Figure 9-21 Performance by Attribute View

Customer Tab

In this tab, the Buyer can view the customer segment level expectations and performance of each assortment.

The Buyer can evaluate how various trends, price tiers, and so on, have performed with each customer segment over time by comparing the current year to the prior year performance to target. The Buyer also has the ability to use this recent and prior year trend to adjust the product attribute characteristics most attractive to each customer segment. This is then used when planning future assortments, when the Shopping List and Wedge are rolled up by customer segment.

Customer Sales Analysis View

In this view, the last year, recent trend, and target performance are shown by customer segment with intersections of Product, Time, and Points of Commerce (sites, applications, and stores).

Figure 9-22 Customer Sales Analysis View

Customer Attributes View

In this view, the Buyer can use the prior view to help tailor the attributes appropriate to each customer segment. These attribute choices are then used when rolling up the future assortments in the Shopping List and Wedge processes.

Figure 9-23 Customer Attributes View

Product Attributes View

This view shows the product attributes for each style-color that were set up in the Shopping List and Fill the Wedge tasks (or loaded from an external source). These product attributes are compared to the desired attributes of each customer segment, to determine whether a given style-color is applicable to that segment.

Figure 9-24 Product Attributes View