Calculating Future Impact Using Historical Impact

This calculation method determines the forecast for the next instance of an event based on the generated actual values from the previous instances of the event.

For example, a pizzeria wants to run a promotion in which people who attend a county basketball championship can present their ticket to receive a 50 percent discount on a large pizza.

  • On the first day of the event, the forecast does not apply any modifications based on the calculation method. The normal forecasted net sales for the pizzeria on that day is $500, but due to the promotion, the pizzeria ends the day with a net sales of $600, for an impact of +20 percent.

  • On the second day of the event, the forecast applies the +20 percent impact of the first day. The normal forecasted net sales for the pizzeria on that day is $520, so the post-calculation forecast is $624. The pizzeria ends the day with a net sales of $598, for an impact of +15 percent.

  • On the third day of the event, the forecast takes into account both days, resulting in a calculated future impact of 17.5 percent. As a result, if the normal forecasted sales for the pizzeria on that day is $500, the post-calculation forecast is $587.50.