Example Using Forecasting Method 2: Lease Year-To-Date Increase Over Prior Year

This table lists the results of the forecast calculation based on reported sales for 2007 and 2008:

Month

2007

2008 Reported

2008 Estimated

Forecast Calculation

JANUARY

121,928

104,431

FEBRUARY

98,552

115,141

MARCH

98,155

122,095

APRIL

94,741

120,730

MAY

98,765

107,837

JUNE

106,026

102,469

JULY

105,369

96,900

AUGUST

106,312

103,977

SEPTEMBER

97,083

89,204

OCTOBER

97,420

84,821

NOVEMBER

97,355

99,564.96

1.0227 × 97,355

DECEMBER

101,217

103,514.63

1.022 × 101,217

TOTAL

102,6350

1,049,605

PERCENT INCREASE

2.27 percent

By applying the forecast calculation from the previous table, determine the sales estimate for November and December 2008 based on the sales figures for the same month in the previous year. The table also shows the percent increase in sales between the two time periods.

Note: For a lease to be comparable, 13 months of sales must exist. In addition, you cannot use this method to forecast January sales.