Example Using Forecasting Method 6: Flat Percent Derived From Comparing the 13th to the 1st Month
This table lists the reported sales figures for 13 months and illustrates how the sales estimates for February through December, 2008 are calculated:
Month |
2007 Reported |
2008 Reported |
2008 Estimated |
Forecast Calculation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
JANUARY |
30,000 |
40,000 |
||
FEBRUARY |
25,000 |
33,333 |
25,000 × 1.3333 |
|
MARCH |
20,000 |
26,667 |
20,000 × 1.3333 |
|
APRIL |
28,000 |
37,333 |
28,000 × 1.3333 |
|
MAY |
30,000 |
40,000 |
30,000 × 1.3333 |
|
JUNE |
35,000 |
46,667 |
35,000 × 1.3333 |
|
JULY |
32,000 |
42,667 |
32,000 × 1.3333 |
|
AUGUST |
30,000 |
40,000 |
30,000 × 1.3333 |
|
SEPTEMBER |
27,000 |
36,000 |
27,000 × 1.3333 |
|
OCTOBER |
33,000 |
44,000 |
33,000 × 1.3333 |
|
NOVEMBER |
45,000 |
60,000 |
45,000 × 1.3333 |
|
DECEMBER |
60,000 |
80,000 |
60,000 × 1.3333 |
Determine the percentage used to calculated the sales estimates from this calculation:
Increase in 13th month over 1st month = Sales (January 2008) ÷ Sales (January 2007)
40,000 ÷ 30,000 = 1.3333 or 33.33 percent