Method 1: Last Year to This Year
This table is history used in the calculation of MAD, given Periods of Best Fit = 5:
Past Year |
Jan |
Feb |
Mar |
Apr |
May |
Jun |
Jul |
Aug |
Sep |
Oct |
Nov |
Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2 |
None |
None |
None |
None |
None |
None |
None |
128 |
118 |
123 |
139 |
133 |
This table is the 110 Percent Over Last Year forecast for the Holdout Period:
Past Year |
Jan |
Feb |
Mar |
Apr |
May |
Jun |
Jul |
Aug |
Sep |
Oct |
Nov |
Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 |
None |
None |
None |
None |
None |
None |
None |
141 |
130 |
135 |
153 |
146 |
This table is the Actual Sales History for the Holdout Period:
Past Year |
Jan |
Feb |
Mar |
Apr |
May |
Jun |
Jul |
Aug |
Sep |
Oct |
Nov |
Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 |
None |
None |
None |
None |
None |
None |
None |
129 |
131 |
114 |
119 |
137 |
Sum of Actuals equals (129 + 131 + 114 + 119 + 137) = 630.
Sum of Forecasts equals (141 + 130 + 135 + 153 + 146) = 705.
POA ratio equals (705 / 630) × 100 percent = 111.90 percent.