How You Forecast Using a Cycle and Intervals

The forecast engine for a work requirement is designed to generate due dates, based on the defined forecast methods, within the forecast horizon. It's generally assumed that a single work order is created for each due date. However, sometimes you may need to model the forecast such that maintenance only occurs on certain intervals in a cycle. Therefore, work orders may or not be created for each due date.

To support these different modeling scenarios, the work requirement can be forecasted based on a cycle of intervals or not based on a cycle, but instead just have one repeating interval. An interval is a duration of time between the forecasted due dates that's based on the base interval or calendar pattern. At each interval, work definitions may also merge or suppress.

Here's the difference between these types of forecasts:

• Cycle-based Forecast: The forecast is created using a cycle that has a length that's based on a number of user-defined intervals. Maintenance occurs on some or all of the intervals, using one or more work definitions.

  • You must define the number of intervals for which the cycle is incremented.

  • The intervals start at one and increment up to the defined number, then start over at one again.

  • A cycle must have more than one interval, else it's not a cycle and an error is presented.

  • Intervals that are repeating increment by the Due at Cycle Interval value for each work definition.

  • A work definition can be defined multiple times for a work requirement as long as its Due at Cycle Interval values are unique. This allows non-repeating patterns like 1,3,7,12 to be modeled.

  • If more than one work definition falls on an overlapping interval, then merge and suppress rules applies. This information is also displayed in the Forecasted To column next to each work definition.

• Non-cycle Forecast: The forecast doesn't have a cycle and just repeats over time using as single interval.

  • If only one interval is required, then deselect the Forecast using a cycle check box, as this isn't a cycle-based forecast.

  • The work definitions are due on every due date of the forecast. This means that if more than one work definition is defined, they're automatically merged into a single work order at every due date of the forecast. This information is also displayed to the user in the Forecasted To column next to each work definition.

Using a cycle of intervals provides the best opportunities for advanced modeling. This includes supporting the different approaches for work definition modeling as well using the Due at Cycle Interval field and Repeats in Cycle check box.

Here are some examples to help you understand the functionality:

Example 1: No cycle of intervals and only a single work definition

Work Definition	Due at Cycle Interval Field	Repeats in Cycle Check Box (Y/N)	Merge or Suppress	Outcome
A	Not applicable	Y	Not applicable	Work definition is due every time the forecast repeats.

Example 2: No cycle of intervals and two or more single work definition.

Work Definition	Due at Cycle Interval Field	Repeats in Cycle Check Box (Y/N)	Merge or Suppress	Outcome
A	Not applicable	Y	Will always merge for no cycle	Work definition A is due every time the forecast repeats. Will merge with B.
B	Not applicable	Y	Will always merge for no cycle	Work definition B is due every time the forecast repeats. Will merge with A.

Example 3: Cycle of two intervals with a single work definitions

Work Definition	Due at Cycle Interval Field	Repeats in Cycle Check Box (Y/N)	Merge or Suppress	Outcome
A	1	N	Not applicable	Work definition is due at interval 1 only. It will skip Interval 2 as it doesn't repeat. Therefore, it's due every other time the forecast is due.
A	2	N	Not applicable	Work definition is due at interval 2 only. It will skip Interval 1. Therefore, it's due every other time the forecast is due.
A	1	Y	Not applicable	Work definition is due at interval 1 and 2. This is really a no cycle example if there's only one work definition.
A	2	Y	Not applicable	Work definition is due at interval 2 only. It will skip Interval 1 as it will repeat at Interval 2 only. Therefore, it's due every other time the forecast is due.

Example 4: Cycle of two intervals with two work definitions

Work Definition	Due at Cycle Interval Field	Repeats in Cycle Check Box (Y/N)	Merge or Suppress	Outcome
A	1	N	Not applicable	Work definition A is due at interval 1 only. It will skip Interval 2 as it doesn't repeat. Therefore, it's due every other time the forecast is due.
B	2	N	Not applicable	Work definition B is due at interval 2 only. It will skip Interval 1. Therefore, it's due every other time the forecast is due.

Example 5: Cycle of two intervals with two work definitions that suppress.

Work Definition	Due at Cycle Interval Field	Repeats in Cycle Check Box (Y/N)	Merge or Suppress	Outcome
A	1	Y	Suppress	Work definition A is due at interval 1 and 2. At interval 2, it will suppress and only B is due.
B	2	Y	Suppress	Work definition B is due at interval 2 only. It will skip interval 1 as it will repeat at interval 2 only. Therefore, it's due every other time the forecast is due and will suppress A at interval 2.

Example 6: Cycle of two intervals with two work definitions that merge.

Work Definition	Due at Cycle Interval Field	Repeats in Cycle Check Box (Y/N)	Merge or Suppress	Outcome
A	1	Y	Merge	Work definition A is due at interval 1 and 2. At interval 2, it will merge with B and both are included in a single work order.
B	2	Y	Merge	Work definition B is due at interval 2 only. At interval 2, it will merge with A and both are included in a single work order.

Example 7: Cycle of 12 intervals with two work definitions that suppress. This is helpful for monthly maintenance with unique work definitions.

Work Definition	Due at Cycle Interval Field	Repeats in Cycle Check Box (Y/N)	Merge or Suppress	Outcome
A	1	Y	Suppress	Work definition A is due at every interval 1-12. At intervals 3, 6, 9, and 12, it will suppress and only B is due.
B	3	Y	Suppress	Work definition B is due at intervals 3, 6, 9, and 12 and will suppress A at each of these intervals.

Example 8: Cycle of 12 intervals with two work definitions that merge. This is helpful for monthly maintenance with incremental work definitions.

Work Definition	Due at Cycle Interval Field	Repeats in Cycle Check Box (Y/N)	Merge or Suppress	Outcome
A	1	Y	Merge	Work definition A is due at every interval 1-12. At intervals 3, 6, 9, and 12, it will merge with B.
B	3	Y	Merge	Work definition B is due at intervals 3, 6, 9, and 12 and will merge with A at each of these intervals.

Example 9: Cycle of 12 intervals with 4 work definitions that suppress. This is helpful for monthly maintenance with incremental work definitions that happen to fall at different intervals.

Work Definition	Due at Cycle Interval Field	Repeats in Cycle Check Box (Y/N)	Merge or Suppress	Outcome
A	1	N	Suppress	Work definition A is due at interval 1 and not repeat.
A	3	N	Suppress	Work definition A is due at interval 3 and not repeat.
B	5	N	Suppress	Work definition B is only due at interval 5 and not repeat.
C	6	Y	Suppress	Work definition C is due at interval 6 and 12.
C	9	N	Suppress	Work definition C is only due at interval 9 and not repeat.
D	12	N	Suppress	Work definition B is only due at interval 12. It will suppress C at interval 12.

Example 10: Cycle of 12 intervals with 4 work definitions that merge. This is helpful for monthly maintenance with incremental work definitions that happen to fall at different intervals.

Work Definition	Due at Cycle Interval Field	Repeats in Cycle Check Box (Y/N)	Merge or Suppress	Outcome
A	1	Y	Merge	Work definition A is due at every interval 1-12. At intervals 5, it will merge with B. At intervals 6 and 9 it will merge with C. At interval 12, it will merge with C and D.
B	5	N	Merge	Work definition B is only due at interval 5 and not repeat.
C	6	Y	Merge	Work definition C is due at interval 6 and 12. It will merge with A at each interval.
C	9	N	Merge	Work definition C is only due at interval 9 and not repeat. It will merge with A at this interval.
D	12	N	Merge	Work definition B is only due at interval 12. It will suppress C at interval 12. It will merge with A and C at interval 12.

Example 10: Cycle of 12 intervals with 4 work definitions that merge. This is helpful for monthly maintenance with incremental work definitions that happen to fall at different intervals.

Work Definition	Due at Cycle Interval Field	Repeats in Cycle Check Box (Y/N)	Merge or Suppress	Outcome
A	1	Y	Merge	Work definition A is due at every interval 1-12. At intervals 5, it will merge with B. At intervals 6 and 9 it will merge with C. At interval 12, it will merge with C and D.
B	5	N	Merge	Work definition B is only due at interval 5 and not repeat.
C	6	Y	Merge	Work definition C is due at interval 6 and 12. It will merge with A at each interval.
C	9	N	Merge	Work definition C is only due at interval 9 and not repeat. It will merge with A at this interval.
D	12	N	Merge	Work definition B is only due at interval 12. It will suppress C at interval 12. It will merge with A and C at interval 12.

As described above, you can use intervals to determine when the maintenance is due in a cycle and what happens if merge or suppress is applied. The intervals are calculated based on the calendar pattern or meter base interval that's defined as the forecast method. Thus, you can define when maintenance is due and also how often. Additionally, you can set up your intervals using multiples to create even more advanced modeling capabilities. Here's another example:

Example 11: If you need to model maintenance to be due every 5,000 miles, you can easily have a base interval of 5,000 miles a using a repeating non-cycle based forecast using a meter. However, if you want to have some work definitions due every 3,000 miles and some every 5,000 miles, then you must find the least common multiple between these and then leverage the intervals in a cycle to control when they're due. In this case, you must use a cycle of 15 intervals and a base interval of 1,000 to model it.

Work Definition	Due Every	Base Interval	Due at Cycle Interval Field	Repeats in Cycle Check Box (Y/N)	Merge or Suppress	Outcome
A	3,000 miles	1000	3	Y	Suppress	Work definition A is due only at interval 3, which is 3,000 miles.
B	5,000 Miles	1000	5	Y	Suppress	Work definition B is due only at interval 5, which is 5,000 miles.

In the example above, no maintenance is due at intervals 1, 2, 4, 7, 8, 11, 13, and 14. It repeats again after interval 15 is completed and starts the cycle over. In this scenario, the next due is at interval 3 again, which is now really 18,000 miles, then due at interval 5 again, which is 20,000 miles and so on.