Bill or Usage Forecast
The Bill or Usage Forecast shows residential AMI customers their energy use or cost so far in the billing period, projected total energy use or cost for the period, and typical energy use or cost for the period based on their past energy use. The forecast informs customers before the end of the billing cycle if they are likely to have high energy use or cost compared to the same time period the previous year.
On this page:
Requirements
Utility Requirements
Same as listed in the product-wide requirements.
Customer Requirements
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Category |
Description |
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Billing Frequency |
Monthly or bimonthly. |
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Data Delivery Frequency |
Utilities must be able to deliver customer data to Oracle Utilities Opower within 48 hours from the time of the last data read. |
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Data Requirements |
Billing Data: Billed usage data from the utility is required. AMI Data: Daily, hourly, or subhourly AMI data is required. AMI data requires the Digital Self-Service Energy Management AMI cloud service. See Getting Started for details. Rates Data: The Rates Engagement cloud service must be purchased and customers' rates must be modeled for cost information to display. Otherwise, usage information will be displayed. |
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Data History |
The customer must have at least one historical bill in order for the forecast to be calculated. A year's worth of billing history is required to show the customer how their forecast compares to their typical usage from the same time last year. If the customer does not have a year's worth of billing history, they are still shown their current and projected usage or costs. |
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Data Coverage |
The customer must have AMI data going back to the beginning of the current billing cycle. By default, at least 75% of the possible reads for the current billing cycle are required to calculate a usage forecast. For cost forecasts, at least 95% of AMI usage reads must have rates modeled in order to ensure an accurate forecast. |
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Supported Fuels |
Electricity and gas. Water and wastewater are also supported when Bill Forecast is integrated as part of Digital Self Service - Transactions. |
Limitations
Rate Plan Switch: If a customer switches rate plans from a modeled to an un-modeled rate in the middle of the bill period, there may be a brief span of time during which the cost forecast will be inaccurate.
User Experience
The user experience described in this section is for customers who have a desktop screen, gas and electricity, and rates modeled.
Fuel Drop-Down Menu: The fuel drop-down list allows customers to select which fuel to view a forecast for. By default, the Electricity fuel label is shown. Gas is the second label. A fuel drop-down only appears for dual fuel customers and is hidden for single fuel customers.
Forecast Amount: The forecast amount is a projection of how much the customer's bill could be if they continue their current energy-spending behavior through the end of the billing period. The forecast is an estimate, not an exact amount, and is based on the estimated length of the bill. It is rounded to the nearest $5 to reinforce the fact that it is an estimate. Depending on your setup and configuration, the forecast may show a cost range instead of a specific cost.
Normative Icon: The normative icon provides a visual indication of how well the customer is doing and shows whether or not their cost or energy use is unusual compared to their typical cost or energy use.
A threshold controls which icon displays. By default, the threshold that causes the high alert icon to display is when a customer's energy use or cost increases by more than 30% above their baseline. Baseline in this case refers to the customer's usage or cost from the same bill period last year. The threshold may vary for each utility depending on what is configured during the setup and launch process.
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Condition |
Normative Icon |
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Customer is using less than or equal to 30% above their baseline |
Check mark |
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Customer is using more than 30% above their baseline |
Exclamation point |
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Customer will see a forecast calculated in n days |
Information icon |
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Customer does not have a baseline or estimated bill period |
Information icon |
See Cost Forecast Variations below for visual examples of how the normative icon and other components of the forecast display in different scenarios.
Billing Period Date Range: The billing period shows the start and end date that the forecast covers. It comes from the average bill period length that is estimated based on a customer's AMI data and bill period end date.
This component may be hidden if there is not enough AMI data to estimate the average length of a customer's billing periods. For example, there may be two days of AMI data for the customer, but not enough historical AMI data to know how long their average bill period is throughout the year.
Comparison Message: The comparison message explains how much the customer is on track to spend compared to the same bill period from the previous year. The message varies slightly depending on the customer's performance and the data that is available.
Spent So Far: A message explains the cost for energy already used in the current billing period, which is the basis for the projection.
Help Lower My Bill: This link directs customers to energy efficiency tips designed to help them save money and energy. See Ways to Save for more information.
Disclaimer about Estimated Bill: The widget includes a brief disclaimer about how the forecast is estimated and can vary from a customer's final bill amount.
Customer Feedback: A customer feedback module is displayed at the bottom of the forecast. Customers can give feedback to help lead to feature improvements. See Customer Feedback for more information.
User Experience Variations
Budget Billing Experience
Budget billing is a type of billing in which the customer pays a set amount of money each bill period for their energy use. This amount may be adjusted each year depending on factors such as inflation and the customer's overall energy use patterns.
For budget billing customers, the Bill Forecast includes an additional message encouraging them to lower their usage since their future budget billing amount may increase if they use more than usual.
Combined Fuel Bill Forecast
The Bill Forecast for dual fuel customers can show a forecast for combined gas and electric costs. In this case, the forecast displays a drop-down menu which includes a bill forecast of a customer's total gas and electricity costs. This is meant to match how dual fuel customers often think of their utility bill as one entity, as opposed to separate gas and electricity charges.
Cost Forecast Variations
The table below describes user experience variations of the Bill Forecast for customers who are dual fuel (gas and electricity) and have rates modeled. Baseline in this case refers to the customer's cost from the same bill period last year.
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Variation |
Screenshot |
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Low Cost Forecast The customer has a cost baseline and an estimated bill period date range, and is using less than their baseline.
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High Cost Forecast Customer has a baseline cost and estimated bill period date range, and is using more than 30% above their baseline. |
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Similar Cost Forecast Customer has a baseline cost and estimated bill period date range, and is using 0 - 30% above their baseline. This means that the customer is projected to use about the same as their baseline cost. |
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Days Until Forecast Ready and Cost to Date Customer sees a message that their cost forecast will be available soon and is shown their cost-to-date in the meantime. A forecast is not shown in this case because seven days in the bill period have not yet passed. This is done to avoid a forecast based on too little data. |
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Cost to Date Customer does not have a baseline or an estimated bill period length. A cost to date is shown because some AMI data is available for the customer. However, there is not enough data to determine the average length of the customer's bill period and calculate a forecast. |
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Cost Forecast But No Baseline Customer does not have a baseline. However, the customer has an estimated bill period date range and enough AMI data for a cost forecast to be calculated, as well as the customer's cost to date. |
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Error State Customer is eligible for a forecast but there is a problem with retrieving the data for it. It is possible for a user to see forecast for one fuel type but an error state for another. If not enough data can be retrieved for either fuel type, the same error message is shown in both views. If data is available for only one view, the widget defaults to that view and shows the error message if the customer switches to the other fuel. |
An error message is shown stating that the forecast information is not available. |
Cost Forecast Displayed as a Range
Utilities can display a numeric range rather than a single value for the forecast. For example, if a customer's projected bill is $100, and the cost range is configured to be 15%, then the range would display as $100-$115.
Note: A range can only be displayed for cost forecasts. A range cannot be enabled for usage forecasts.
Forecast Lower Than Cost to Date
There may be a case where a customer's cost forecast is rounded down to the nearest five and becomes less than the customer's cost to date as a result.
For example, imagine it is late in the billing period and the customer's cost to date is $41. If the widget calculates a cost forecast of $42, then it would round this number down to $40. However, this would be a confusing user experience, since the forecast would say $40, whereas the cost to date would say $41. Therefore, for these situations, the widget contains logic to keep the original $42 forecast, instead of rounding down to the nearest five. This is the only case in which the widget will round to the nearest whole number instead of the nearest five.
Mobile Experience
The Bill Forecast is designed to adapt smoothly to both mobile and desktop screen sizes. When the screen size changes, the layout of the feature changes dynamically to reduce the size of the elements and keep them stacked vertically.
Multiple Accounts
The multiple accounts experience varies depending on whether the feature has been configured for a standalone implementation or an embedded implementation.
In a standalone implementation, the Bill Forecast shows a drop-down list that allows customers to choose which account to view.
In an embedded widget implementation, the account drop-down is hidden since the utility site is expected to have its own account selection tools. In this case, customers can switch between their accounts by logging into their utility account using single sign-on, and then clicking an account selector hosted on the utility website. All embedded widgets are then reloaded with data for the specified account.
For more information about embedding widgets, see the Oracle Utilities Opower Digital Self Service - Energy Management Embeddable Widgets Integration Guide.
Multiple Service Points
The multiple service points experience varies depending on whether a utility uses the Legacy Data Transfer specification or one of the latest core data transfer specifications (Account, Billing, or Premise). Your Delivery Team can tell you which specification you are using.
If the new core specifications are being used, then a drop-down menu is not displayed. Instead, the amount shown in interface is a sum of the amounts from each service point.
If the legacy specification is being used, then a drop-down menu is displayed to allow eligible customers to view the Bill or Usage Forecast for a specific service point. The example below shows a case where a customer has a single electricity service point and two gas service points. For any non-AMI service points that are selected, a "No forecast available" message will appear since the feature requires AMI data to work.
For more information about embedding widgets, see the Oracle Utilities Opower Digital Self Service - Energy Management Embeddable Widgets Integration Guide.
Solar Customers
Customers with negative usage or bill forecasts will see negative numbers in the feature, regardless of whether the Oracle Utilities Opower Distributed Energy Resources cloud service has been purchased. However, if a utility has purchased the Distributed Energy Resources cloud service, then additional solar insights are displayed. For information about the solar customer experience, see Solar Messaging in Bill Forecast in the Distributed Energy Resources Cloud Service Overview.
Usage Forecast
If rates are not modeled for the customer, then an energy use forecast is shown instead. The variations of the energy use forecast are identical to those of the cost forecast variations. The energy use forecast is shown in a kilowatt-hour (kWh) value. To provide context, the comparison message includes the percentage that this value represents.
Water and Wastewater Experience
Note: This experience is only available when the Bill Forecast is integrated as part of Digital Self Service - Transactions.
In this experience, customers can see a forecast of their water and wastewater service. The options to view water and wastewater are included for selection in a drop-down menu. If rates are not modeled, customers are presented with a usage forecast, as shown in the example image below.
Calculations
Bill Forecast
At a high level, the Bill Forecast calculation involves the following steps:
- Calculate the baseline cost and energy values using the customer's bills from the previous year.
- Estimate the customer's billing period end date.
- Calculate how much energy the customer has used to date.
- Take the customer's energy use and project it forward to the estimated billing period end date.
- Convert the resulting energy use values to cost values, based on the customer's rate plan. The output is an actual cost value (to date) and a projected cost value (going forward). Note that the projected cost can also be displayed as a range, depending on the configuration.