Forecasting and Estimating Usage

Some settlement processes, such as initial settlement, often have to be performed before actual usage has been received or calculated for service points participating in the settlement market. In these cases, usage must be estimated, and in some cases, forecasted before aggregation and other settlement calculations can happen. A forecast is the term used when estimating usage data for future dates based on historical or profile data. Backcasting is the term used for estimating data for dates in the past. These can also be based on historical and/or profile data.

Two specific methods used for forecasting and backcasting include:

• Profile Estimation: This method uses profile data that represents typical usage for the service point to estimate usage. In some cases, profile data can also be adjusted based on scalar usage for the same service point.
• Proxy Day Estimation: This process compares data between measuring components to identify an historical day that most closely matches the date for which data is needed and uses data from that historical day to estimate usage