Create and Edit a Storm ERT

After you create a storm model, you can create one or more estimated restoration timelines (ERTs) and add them to the storm model. An ERT is a forecast of how long it will take to restore power to customers who are expected to be off supply. As part of the ERT creation process, you select one or more past storms to use as the basis of the ERT calculations.

Create an ERT

  1. Sign in to Storm ERT.
  2. From the storm dashboard, search for and click the name of the storm model in which you want to add an ERT.
  3. In the storm view that displays, click Actions and then Create ERT.

    Note:

    When the storm view that appears is in "tail mode", the Restoration Rates page is displayed after the Similar Storm Events page.
  4. In the Similar Storm Events page, select storm events that can be used as a basis for the ERT calculation. You must select at least one storm event.

    Optionally, you can adjust the Weight of any storm events that have been selected. This will prioritize the ERT calculations of that storm relative to the other storm events. For example, you can increase the weight of recent storms above those that occurred in the more distant past.

    You can use the search bar to find a specific storm, or you can use one of the available filters:
    • State: The list of storms is pre-filtered to exclude storms in a Cancelled or Draft state.
    • Type: The type of storm. It is recommended that you choose a type so that you can more easily search by it later or make comparisons to other storms of the same type.
    • Level: The severity level of the storm. The meaning for each level varies by utility due to regional differences in weather patterns, so consult your internal documentation if you need guidance on which level to choose. (For example, in some regions a few inches of snow are considered a major snow storm, while in other regions it is considered minor.)
  5. Click Continue.
  6. In the Restoration Rates page (appears only if restoration activities have begun and the storm is in "tail mode"), review at a zone-level detail the devices which were affected by the current storm. The estimated restoration rates and crew requirements are used to predict and display restoration milestones in the ERT Details page.
    • Zone: A drop-down menu that lets you view restoration rates associated with the different zones in your service territory.
    • Device Type: The name of the device type associated with the storm event.
    • Current Storm Outages: The total number of devices of this type which failed during the storm event.
    • Current Storm Restored: The total number of devices of this type which has been restored so far.
    • Current Storm Hours Needed: The average number of hours needed to repair the device type. This number is calculated by subtracting on-site time (the time spent by the crew repairing the device) or en route time (the time that the crew gets on the road) from restore time (the time when the device was restored). If on-site time or en route time is not available, then "off time" is subtracted from restore time.
    • Current Storm Crews Needed: The average number of crews needed to repair the device type. A value of "0" may indicate that power was restored without sending a crew. For example, power may have been routed from a different location to restore the outage.
    • Similar Storm Hours Needed: The average number of hours needed to repair the device type in the selected similar storm.
    • Similar Storm Crews Needed: The average number of crews needed to repair the device type in the selected similar storm.
    • Estimated Hours Needed: The predicted number of hours to repair the device type, based on an average of the data in Hours Needed and Hours Needed from Similar Storms. However, a weight of 80% is given to the current storm data, whereas a weight of 20% is given to the data from similar storms.
    • Estimated Crews Needed: The predicted number of crews to repair the device type, based on an average of the data in Crews Needed and Crews Needed From Similar Storms. However, a weight of 80% is given to the current storm data, whereas a weight of 20% is given to the data from similar storms.
  7. Click Continue.
  8. In the ERT Details page, complete the fields below.
    • Name: Enter a distinct and concise name for the ERT. For example, you could use ERT1 to indicate that it is the first ERT created for the storm model. This name will be used as a label for the ERT after it is created.
    • Crew Schedules: If necessary, edit or adjust the prepopulated columns for the crew schedules of each zone. You will be able to update this information later. Initial crew shifts are split into two 12-hour periods of the day: 7 a.m. and 7 p.m. (The Global zone row is editable except for Efficiency.)
      • Estimated Customers: Adjust the estimated number of customers in the zone who are expected to lose power.
      • Estimated Outages: Adjust the estimated number of outages anticipated in the zone. The number of estimated outages should be less than or equal to the number of estimated customers who are expected to lose power. This is because one outage can affect multiple customers, such as when a pole is down or a transformer is damaged.
      • Day 1 AM Crews, Day 1 PM Crews, etc: Adjust the number of crews dispatched in each 12-hour period of a day as needed for each zone. (Day 1 AM Crews refers to the first 12 hours of day 1, Day 1 PM Crews refers to the second 12 hours of day 1, and so on.) The number you choose will likely depend on factors such as the storm class. For example, you may want to increase the number of crews planned for a class 2 storm as opposed to a class 1 storm. Changing a global crew number refreshes the zone level number with the new allocation where the values are proportional to the number of sub-zones.

        Note:

        The application automatically determines the default number of crew shifts by looking at the similar storm that took the longest time to restore. The application then averages the number of crews assigned to each similar storm during each 24-hour period, and allocates crews to each 12-hour day shift (that is, the AM shift) in each zone. The 12-hour night shifts default to zero crews since it is assumed that crews do not work as often at night. More crews are allocated to larger zones than smaller zones.
      • Efficiency: The default efficiency is 5. Adjust the efficiency with which crews are able to restore outages, based on your knowledge of historical storms. Efficiency basically refers to how quickly the crews can work. The default efficiency values displayed are derived from predefined, utility-specific configurations for each storm class. Keep in mind the following notes:
        • You can edit the overall efficiency of the crews in each day and 12-hour period. The minimum efficiency you can choose is 1 and the maximum is 10. A 5 indicates that the crew is expected to be as efficient as the historical average efficiency.
        • You can enter decimals for a more precise efficiency estimate, such as 5.5. If you expect that the crews will work with higher efficiency than usual, then increase the number. If you expect that crews will work with low or moderate efficiency compared to average, then decrease the number.
        • Factors that may affect crew efficiency include the conditions of the roads and experience of the crew. For example, crews that come from other territories may not be as efficient as crews that know the area.
  9. Click Create ERT.

The ERT is added to the Chart section of the information panel in the storm model, and an ERT curve is visualized in the graph. Additionally, the ERT you created displays sub timelines: a timeline showing the data before crew adjustments, and a timeline for the similar storm selected for the ERT.

Once you have created one or more ERTs, you can select one to be approved with the storm model.

Edit an ERT

As a storm moves through your service territory, you may want to edit an ERT to better match the latest information about the storm.

Note:

You cannot edit an ERT if the storm model is already in an Approved state. In such cases, you must revert the storm model to a draft before you make any edits.
  1. Sign in to Storm ERT.
  2. From the Storm ERT dashboard, search for and click the name of the storm model that contains the ERT you want to edit.
  3. In the storm model view, click the gear icon next to the ERT that you want to edit. See Create an ERT above for descriptions of each field.
  4. When you are finished making edits, click Save.

Edit a Post Storm ERT

A post storm ERT is displayed when the cut-off date has been reached and the ERT curve is in "tail mode".

Note:

You cannot edit a post storm ERT if the storm model is already in an Approved state. In such cases, you must revert the storm model to a draft before you make any edits.
  1. Sign in to Storm ERT.
  2. From the Storm ERT dashboard, search for and click the name of the storm model that contains the ERT you want to edit.
  3. In the storm model view, click the gear icon next to the ERT that you want to edit.
  4. In the Similar Storm Events page, select storm events that can be used as basis for the ERT calculation. You must select at least one storm event. See Create an ERT above for descriptions of other actions you can take on this page.
  5. Click Continue.
  6. In the Restoration Rates page, review at a zone-level detail the devices which were affected by the current storm. The estimated restoration rates and crew requirements are used to predict and display restoration milestones in the ERT Details page.
    • Zone: A drop-down menu that lets you view restoration rates associated with the different zones in your service territory.

      You can overwrite the system-generated Estimated Hours Needed and Estimated Crews Needed at a global or zone level. Changing the estimates at the global level applies the user-defined estimates to all zones except those with previously defined user-defined estimates. Updating estimates at the zone level overrides both the system-generated estimates and any global user-defined estimates that applies to the zone.

    • Device Type: The name of the device type associated with the storm event.
    • Current Storm Outages: The total number of devices of this type which failed during the storm event.
    • Current Storm Restored: The total number of devices of this type which has been restored so far.
    • Current Storm Hours Needed: The average number of hours needed to repair the device type. This number is calculated by subtracting on-site time (the time spent by the crew repairing the device) or en route time (the time that the crew gets on the road) from restore time (the time when the device was restored). If on-site time or en route time is not available, then "off time" is subtracted from restore time.
    • Current Storm Crews Needed: The average number of crews needed to repair the device type. A value of "0" may indicate that power was restored without sending a crew. For example, power may have been routed from a different location to restore the outage.
    • Similar Storm Hours Needed: The average number of hours needed to repair the device type in the selected similar storm.
    • Similar Storm Crews Needed: The average number of crews needed to repair the device type in the selected similar storm.
    • Estimated Hours Needed: The predicted number of hours to repair the device type, based on an average of the data in Current Storm Hours Needed and Similar Storm Hours Needed. However, a weight of 80% is given to the current storm data, whereas a weight of 20% is given to the data from similar storms.

      Enter a number between 0 and 100 to change the estimated hours for repair. The initial system-generated estimates appear as grayed-out values enclosed in parentheses beside the user-defined values.

    • Estimated Crews Needed: The predicted number of crews to repair the device type, based on an average of the data in Current Storm Crews Needed and Similar Storm Crews Needed. However, a weight of 80% is given to the current storm data, whereas a weight of 20% is given to the data from similar storms.

      Enter a number between 0 and 10 to change the estimated number of crews to repair the device. The initial system-generated estimates appear as grayed-out values enclosed in parentheses beside the user-defined values.

  7. In the ERT Details page, complete the fields that display. See Create an ERT above for descriptions of other actions you can take on this page.

    The ERT Details table displays one Global row and then one row for every zone at a certain level in the zone hierarchy where outages have occurred.

  8. When you are finished making edits, click Save.