Understanding the Risk Analysis Results

After the risk analysis process completes, you can view a variety of statistical results. Available options vary depending on the settings you selected before running the analysis. To ensure you have the most current analysis information, view the analysis start date, end date, and duration in the Risk Analysis Run Settings section. For information on Risk Iteration Analysis, see Risk Iteration Analysis Overview.

Note When you select Use Convergence, the risk analysis statistics panel displays Maximum Iterations, and the risk analysis runs until the specified convergence criteria are met, or until the analysis reaches the specified maximum number of iterations. For more information, see Understanding Convergence. You can view the Risk Analysis Log to see iteration details.

Distribution Results

When you run a risk analysis, the Remaining Cost, At-Completion Cost, Duration, Start Date, and Finish Date are recorded on both the activity and the project. For each iteration, a risk might occur according to its probability. If the risk occurs, the schedule impact and cost impact are sampled from their thresholds and applied to the project or activity. If an activity has uncertainty applied, the remaining duration is also sampled from within the uncertainty distribution before risk impacts are calculated. Non-working time from weather risks affects the finish date of an activity, not the duration. Actual Cost Impacts are included in At-Completion Cost results but are not included in Remaining Cost results.

The Distribution Results page is divided into three adjustable sections: Chart Options and Select Results, the Risk Analysis Results, and the Statistics Panel. Each tab, except the Schedule & Cost tab, displays a probability distribution of possible cost, duration, and date values for the project or activity. For each cost, duration, or date range, the graph displays its frequency and cumulative frequency, with horizontal lines aligned with cumulative frequency. From the distribution, you can determine the likelihood of completing the project or activity by a specified finish date or within a specified cost. A legend at the top of the page identifies key statistical values based on Response Context, and you can hover over data points, bars, and indicator lines for more specific information.

In Chart Options, enter target values on the Finish Date and At Completion Cost tabs. Risk Analysis shows potential finish dates and costs based on project uncertainty and risk. Adding a target At Completion Cost or Finish Date shows the likelihood of completing a project within that cost or by that date.

For example, when determining cost contingency at the beginning of a project, you can enter an At Completion Cost target to view the probability of completing the project within that cost. Alternatively, enter a target Probability to view the corresponding At Completion Cost. Use the same approach for Finish Date. Enter a target Finish Date, such as a contractual milestone date, to see the likelihood of meeting that milestone. Select Show Contingency to display the contingency value right on the chart between the Deterministic and Target values. For Finish Date, you can also enter target values for milestones; however, At Completion Cost is available only at the project level.

You can set Probability and Finish Date targets for activities, including milestones. At Completion Cost targets are available only at the project level. You can also display contingency for an activity.

Experiment with target values to determine realistic cost and finish-date targets. When you identify achievable target values, select Set Target. The application saves the target values so that you can measure progress as the project changes.

For Finish Date results, the statistics panel displays Target Contingency, calculated using the project calendar, and Target Absolute Contingency, calculated using a calendar with no non-working days.

When you display probability on the Deterministic or Target value, the corresponding indicator line is selected automatically. When Show Contingency is selected, both lines are selected automatically and cannot be deselected.

Monitor Risk Analysis Results Across Projects

To view the most recent risk analysis status for projects, expose Risk Analysis Status as a column on the Projects page. To view additional run information, expose the Risk Analysis Start, Risk Analysis Finish, and Risk Analysis Duration fields.

To track progress against saved targets across projects, expose the following risk analysis fields as columns on the Projects page:

For example, to monitor whether projects are likely to meet contractual finish dates after a risk analysis run, expose Scheduled Finish Date, Target Finish Date, and the target finish probability fields. Compare the target date and probability values to identify projects that need attention.

You can also include target values in charts, dashboards, reports, and configured fields.

Choose whether to show probability on the Deterministic or Target values, and use chart shading to focus on Over Budget or Under Budget and On Time or Late data. Use the Show Lines selector to control which lines to display. When you display probability on the Deterministic or Target values, select the corresponding line in the Show Lines list. Use Bar Width to change the cost or duration interval displayed on the graph. The application selects a default bar width based on a practical number of bars. If a bar width would create more than 200 bars, that option is unavailable. For example, if the distribution spans one year, hours and days are unavailable; only weeks, months, quarters, and years display as bar width options.

Use Select Results to view project and activity results in the graph. Use Search to find a specific activity, and group activities by project or WBS. A selected project or activity remains selected as you navigate between tabs. You can also set Probability and Finish Date targets for an activity; however, At Completion Cost targets are only available at the project level. You can also choose to show contingency at the activity level.

The distribution graph displays durations, costs, and dates as configured in user preferences. Details next to the graph display additional key statistics and analysis run settings. Use Settings to configure the statistics and analysis run settings displayed beside the graph, chart lines and colors, and the tabs that appear on the page. Some statistics are specific to certain tabs, and statistics common to multiple tabs retain their configured visibility and order. You can rename statistics fields as needed.

The Schedule & Cost tab displays a scatter plot graph that helps you visualize the likelihood of completing a project within a certain cost and by a certain finish date. See Working with the Risk Analysis Distribution Results Scatter Plot for more information.

Mean Impact

A risk mean impact analysis identifies risks and activities with the greatest average impact on project duration and cost. Results appear in tornado charts, which rank each activity or risk according to potential impact on project duration or cost.

There are four views in the chart that allow you to focus on Project Cost Contribution or Project Delay Contribution, and then break down the results by Activity or by Risk. This information can help you determine which risks to address first, or which activities might need revised cost or duration estimates. The chart also includes other direct and indirect sources of delay and cost. For example, in the Activity Cost Contribution and Activity Delay Contribution, risks that are not assigned to activities appear as a single bar called Unassigned Risks. In the Risk Cost Contribution, you can see contributions from Activity Uncertainty and Other Cost increases such as WBS Summary and Level of Effort Activities.

You can view results as values, percentages, or both. Hover over a bar to display impact information including activity name, impact value, and risk name.

Risk Removal Impact

A risk removal impact analysis, also called a sensitivity analysis, identifies risks with the greatest impact on a project. During the impact analysis, the application simulates the complete removal of each risk to measure and rank its effect on the Pessimistic Finish and Pessimistic Remaining Cost of the project. The analysis also simulates the removal of all activity uncertainty values and measures the potential Pessimistic Finish impact. Results display in a tornado chart, which ranks the risks by the highest potential negative or positive impact on the project.

Each risk is represented by a bar that extends between the lowest and highest time or cost estimates for the risk. Each bar indicates how removing a risk might positively or negatively affect the project Pessimistic Remaining Cost or Pessimistic Finish date. A bar representing the removal of all project activity uncertainty values is also included in the Finish Date chart. Use this information to identify the risks with the greatest potential impact on cost and schedule targets.

By default, every risk in the register is included in the risk removal impact analysis. You can exclude risks from the analysis on the Risk Register page. Select Exclude from Risk Removal.

For Level of Effort and WBS Summary type activities, weather risks are excluded from risk analysis. The schedule impact of a risk mapped to Level of Effort and WBS Summary type activities is also excluded. However, the cost impact of weather risks and risks with a schedule impact remains included.

Threat, opportunity, weather, and risk factor risks are all included in the risk removal impact analysis. While threats, opportunities, and risk factors support both pre-response and post-response analysis contexts, weather risks do not. The application uses the same weather data for both contexts. However, because risk analyses use randomly seeded numbers, pre-response and post-response results for weather risks may differ. If this difference is significant, consider increasing the number of iterations for the analysis.

Related Topics

View Risk Analysis Distribution Results

View Risk Mean Impact Analysis Results

View Risk Removal Impact Analysis Results

Distribution Results Fields


Last Published Monday, October 19, 2026