9 Forecast Maintenance Task

The Forecast Maintenance task allows you to select and modify forecasting parameters for product/location combinations when the values of these parameters differ from the default values that are assigned in the Forecast Administration Workbook.

Suppose, for example, that the default forecast method of all the products in the database was set in the Forecast Administration Workbook to be AutoES. For a particular product, however, you know that a SeasonalES model is a better predictor of sales performance. To make this change, you must access the Forecast Maintenance task, select the product/location intersection to be reviewed, and make the appropriate change to the forecast method.

The Forecast Maintenance task is split into these workflow activities:

• Basic Final Level Parameters

• Advanced Final Level Parameters

• Basic Source Level Parameters

Forecast Maintenance Workbook

To build the Forecast Maintenance workbook, perform these steps:

1. Click the New Workbook icon in the Forecast Maintenance task in the Forecasting Core Process activity.

   Figure 9-1 Forecast Maintenance Task

   
   

2. The Workbook wizard opens. Select the forecast level that you want to evaluate and click Next.

   Figure 9-2 Workbook Wizard: Causal Level

   
   

3. Select the specific locations that you want to view and click Next.

   Figure 9-3 Workbook Wizard: Select Locations

   
   

4. Select the products you want to work with and click Finish.

   Figure 9-4 Workbook Wizard: Select Products

   
   

The Forecast Maintenance workbook is built.

Forecast Maintenance Workbook: Basic Final Level Parameters

This view includes the parameters that are overridden most frequently.

Final and Source Level Views - Basic Final Level Parameters

The Final Level View and Source Level view allows for certain parameters set at a global level (in Forecast Administration) to vary at different item/locations. Figure 9-5 and Figure 9-6 show the Final Level and Source Level views.

Figure 9-5 Final Level View - Basic Settings for the Baseline Level

Figure 9-6 Final Level View - Basic Settings for the Causal Level

Measures: Basic Final Level Parameters Views

The Final Level Views for baseline and causal contain the following measures:

Approval Method Override

Set only at the final-level, the Approval Method Override is a list from which you select the approval policy for individual product/location combinations. No value is in this field if the system default set in the Forecast Administration Workbook is to be used. Valid values are:

Field	Description
Manual	The System Forecast and Adjusted Forecast are not automatically approved. Forecast values must be manually approved by accessing and amending the Forecast Administration Workbook.
Automatic	The Adjusted Forecast is automatically approved as is.
By Alert <name of the alert>	This list of values may also include any Forecast Approval alerts that have been configured for use in the forecast approval process. Alerts are configured during the implementation. Refer to the Oracle Retail Predictive Application Server Configuration Tools User Guide for more information on the Alert Manager and the Oracle Retail Demand Forecasting Cloud Service Configuration Guide for more information on configuring Forecast Approval Alerts.

Note: If you select a specific alert as your approval method and later on you delete the alert, the approval works as manual. The same happens if the alert is on a wrong intersection.

Forecast Method Override

Set at both final and source-levels, the Forecast Method Override is a list from which you can select a different forecast method than the Default Forecast Method set in the Forecast Administration Workbook. No Override appears in this field if the system default set in the Forecast Administration Workbook is to be used. Valid options depend on your system setup.

Keep Last Changes Override

Set only at final-levels, Keep Last Changes Override field may be used to override the default setting at a product/location intersection. None appears in this field if there is no override applied to the intersection.

Source Level Override

Set only at final-levels, the Source Level Override is the level at which the aggregate, more robust baseline forecast is run. Forecast data from this level is spread down to the lowest level based on the relationship between the two levels in the hierarchy. If it is a causal level, the source level refers to the pooling level where aggregate promotion effects are estimated.No Override appears in this field if the system default set in the Forecast Administration Workbook is to be used.

Bayesian Alpha Override

Note: This measure is not displayed for causal levels.

This is the override of the Bayesian Alpha parameter that is specified globally in the Forecast Administration Workbook. The override can be specified at every forecasting level, that is, final and source-levels.

An alpha value closer to one (or infinity) weights the sales plan more in creating the forecast, whereas alpha closer to zero weights the known history more. The default is one (1).

Moving Average Window Length Override

Note: This measure is not displayed for causal levels.

Used with Moving Average forecast method, this is the number of data points in history used in the calculation of Moving Average. This parameter, when set to a non-zero value, overrides the value in the Forecast Administration Workbook.

Optimal Source Levels

Displayed only at final-levels, a value is populated in this field if AutoSource has been run on the final-level. The AutoSource executable evaluates all levels associated to a final-level and returns the source-level that yields the optimal forecast results. For more information on AutoSource, refer to the Oracle Retail Demand Forecasting Cloud Service Implementation Guide.

Note: For item/stores that are new or highly seasonal, AutoSource may not return the best recommendation since new items may not have an adequate sales history length and highly seasonal items may only sell for a short period during the year. For these items, you should not set the AutoSource recommendation as default at the final-level. Only use AutoSource recommendations for item/stores that have an adequate sales history. This measure is not displayed for causal levels.

Pick Optimal Level

Set only at final-levels, a check in this field (set to True) indicates that the batch forecast should use the Optimal Source Level selected by AutoSource. For more information on AutoSource, refer to the Oracle Retail Demand Forecasting Cloud Service Implementation Guide.

Note: This measure is not displayed for causal levels.

Return Forecast Flag Override

If this Boolean measure is checked, it indicates that a returns forecast will be generated for the desired product/location combinations.

Return Forecast Percentage Override

This measure overrides the default value of the percentage of the merchandise sold in a time period that is expected to be returned to the store. A value of zero indicates that no returns will be calculated.

Return Forecast Time Shift Override

This measure overrides the default value of the number of time periods between when the merchandise was sold until it was returned. For instance, if the measure is set to one, the merchandise is expected to be returned one week after it was sold.

Source Level Override

Set only at final-levels, the Source Level Override is the level at which the aggregate, more robust forecast is run. Forecast data from this level is spread down to the lowest level based on the relationship between the two levels in the hierarchy. No Override appears in this field if the system default set in the Forecast Administration Workbook is to be used.

AWinters Responsiveness Factor Override

Note: This measure is not displayed for causal levels.

Used only by the Additive Oracle Winters forecasting method. This parameter allows you to override the AWinters Responsiveness setting assigned in the Forecast Administration Workbook. The default setting for this parameter is No Override.

Blending Parameter Override

Note: This measure is not displayed for baseline levels.

The blending parameter is used to combine promotion effects calculated at the pooled as well as item/store levels. This is the override of the value assigned in the Forecast Administration Workbook. The default setting for this parameter is No Override.

Forecast Maintenance Workbook: Advanced Final Level Parameters

The Advanced Settings workflow activity is used to override the dates that are used in the forecast generation process as well as historical start dates for any intersection at the final-level that varies from the default settings in the Forecast Administration Workbook.

Advanced Final Level Parameters View

Figure 9-7 shows the Advanced Final Level Parameters view.

Figure 9-7 Advanced Final Level Parameters View

Measures: Advanced Final Level Parameters View

The Advanced Final Parameter view contains the following measures:

Apply Promotional Lift Override

Note: This measure is not displayed for baseline levels.

Select this parameter (set to True) if you want RDF Cloud Service to ignore the system calculated lifts, and apply the overrides.

Overlapping Promotion Adjustment Factor Override

Note: This measure is not displayed for baseline levels.

The Overlapping Promotion Adjustment Factor Override measure is applied if Adjustable Approach is selected for Overlapping Promotion Behavior for the item/location level. This is an override of the global setting.

The Overlapping Promotion Adjustment Factor Override specifies at an item/location how the individually calculated promotion effects are combined with each other when the promotions are overlapped in the forecast horizon. The default value is 1. More details can be found in Forecast Administration Workbook.

Forecast End Date Override

This parameter represents the last point in time for which the forecasting engine forecasts for a particular intersection. Should this parameter be set to a date less than the Forecast Start Date plus the Forecast Length (in Forecast Administration), the engine forecasts zero (0) past this date. If Forecast End Date is more than Forecasting Start Date plus Forecasting Length, you do not get a forecast outside Forecasting Start Date plus Forecasting Length. In other words, both Forecast Start Date and Forecasting End Date are relevant for time periods within the forecast horizon set at the global level. No value is in this measure if the system default set in the Forecast Administration Workbook is to be used.

Note: Changes to this measure can be seen in the Forecast Maintenance Workbook. The most recent commit (in either task) is the value used by the system.

Forecast Start Date Override

This parameter represents the date to start forecasting at a particular intersection. If this date is set to the past, it is ignored in favor of the Forecast Start Date from the Forecast Administration Workbook. This means that you do not need to change the Forecast Start Date once it is no longer in the future. It is important to understand how Forecast Start Date should be used in conjunction with Forecast End Date Override. No value is in this measure if the system default set in the Forecast Administration Workbook is to be used.

Note: Changes to this measure can be seen in the Forecast Maintenance Workbook. The most recent commit (between either task) is the value used by the system.

History Start Date Override

This parameter represents the first point in time from which the Forecasting Engine begins training and modeling (that is, if there are two years of history, but you only want to use one year, you set the start date to a year ago). This parameter overrides the History Start Date set in the Forecast Administration Workbook to the desired item/location intersection. For example, if you have a large spike in the first three weeks of sales for an item on sale, you can set the Historical Start Date to one week past that period, and those first few weeks are not used when generating the forecast.

It is also important to note that the system ignores leading zeros that begin at the history start date. For example, if your history start date is January 1, 2003, and an item/location does not have sales history until February 1, 2003, the system considers the starting point in that item/location's history to be the first data point where there is a non-zero sales value.

If this parameter is set into the future, there would be no forecast, as the history training window is read as zero.

Note: Changes to this measure can be seen in the Forecast Maintenance Workbook. The most recent commit (between either task) is the value used by the system.

Forecast Length Override

This parameter decides how many periods ahead RDF should forecast for a certain item/store. It is the override of the Forecast Length in the Forecast Administration workbook. Such a feature is desired, because not all merchandise require the same forecast horizon. For instance, the majority of items require a seven week long forecast to be used in replenishment. So the default value is set to seven weeks. However, a few items which need longer term planning and have long lead times, may need a forecast that is 52 weeks long. For those the length can be overwritten with the appropriate value.

Basic Source Level Parameters View

Figure 9-8 shows the Basic Source Level Parameters view.

Figure 9-8 Basic Source Level Parameters View for Baseline

Figure 9-9 Basic Source Level Parameters View for Causal

Measures: Basic Source Level Parameters View

The Basic Source Level Parameters view contains the following measures:

History Start Date Override

This parameter represents the first point in time from which the Forecasting Engine begins training and modeling (that is, if there are two years of history, but you only want to use one year, you set the start date to a year ago). This parameter overrides the History Start Date set in the Forecast Administration Workbook to the desired item/location intersection. For example, if you have a large spike in the first three weeks of sales for an item on sale, you can set the Historical Start Date to one week past that period, and those first few weeks are not used when generating the forecast.

It is also important to note that the system ignores leading zeros that begin at the history start date. For example, if your history start date is January 1, 2003, and an item/location does not have sales history until February 1, 2003, the system considers the starting point in that item/location's history to be the first data point where there is a non-zero sales value.

If this parameter is set into the future, there would be no forecast, as the history training window is read as zero.

Note: Changes to this measure can be seen in the Forecast Maintenance Workbook. The most recent commit (between either task) is the value used by the system.

Forecast Method Override

Set at both final and source-levels, the Forecast Method Override is a list from which you can select a different forecast method than the Default Forecast Method set in the Forecast Administration Workbook. No Override appears in this field if the system default set in the Forecast Administration Workbook is to be used. Valid options depend on your system setup.

Bayesian Alpha Override

Note: This measure is not displayed for causal levels.

This is the override of the Bayesian Alpha parameter that is specified globally in the Forecast Administration Workbook. The override can be specified at every forecasting level, that is, final and source-levels.

An alpha value closer to one (or infinity) weights the sales plan more in creating the forecast, whereas alpha closer to zero weights the known history more. The default is one (1).

Moving Average Window Length Override

Note: This measure is not displayed for causal levels.

Used with Moving Average forecast method, this is the number of data points in history used in the calculation of Moving Average. This parameter, when set to a non-zero value, overrides the value in the Forecast Administration Workbook.

AWinters Responsiveness Factor Override

Note: This measure is not displayed for causal levels.

Used only by the Additive Oracle Winters forecasting method. This parameter allows you to override the AWinters Responsiveness setting assigned in the Forecast Administration Workbook. The default setting for this parameter is No Override.