Contents

Title and Copyright Information

Send Us Your Comments

Preface

• Audience
• Documentation Accessibility
• Related Documents
• Supplemental Documentation
• Customer Support
• Review Patch Documentation
• Improved Process for Oracle Retail Documentation Corrections
• Oracle Retail Documentation on the Oracle Technology Network
• Conventions

1 Introduction

• Forecasting Challenges and RDF Solutions
  • Selecting the Best Forecasting Method
  • Overcoming Data Sparsity Through Source Level Forecasting
  • Forecasting Demand for New Products and Locations
  • Managing Forecasting Results Through Automated Exception Reporting
  • Incorporating the Effects of Promotions and Other Event-Based Challenges on Demand
  • Managing and Forecasting for Floating Events
  • 53 Week Calendar
  • Forecasting Returns
• Oracle Retail Demand Forecasting Architecture
  • The Oracle Retail Predictive Application Server and RDF
  • Global Domain Versus Simple Domain Environment
• Oracle Retail Demand Forecasting Workbook Groups
  • New Items & Locations
  • Historical Demand Preparation
  • Forecasting Core Process
  • Event Planning
  • Forecasting Support Process
  • Profile
  • Grade
  • Cross Promo Effect Module (CPEM)
• RDF Solution and Business Process Overview
  • RDF and the Oracle Retail Enterprise
  • RDF Primary Workflow
  • RDF Batch Flow Process

2 Navigation

• Before you Begin
• Logging into RDF
• Taskflow Pane
  • Access Based Visibility
  • Switching Between Multiple Tasks
• Opening a Workbook
• Deleting a Workbook
• Permissible File Names
• Renaming a Workbook
• Understanding the Workbook Wizard Window
• Accessing Online Help
  • Contents
  • Figures and Tables
  • Index
  • Search
• Logging Out of RDF

3 Oracle Retail Demand Forecasting Methods

• Forecasting Techniques Used in RDF
  • Exponential Smoothing
  • Regression Analysis
  • Bayesian Analysis
  • Prediction Intervals
  • Automatic Method Selection
  • Source Level Forecasting
  • Promotional Forecasting
• Time Series (Statistical) Forecasting Methods
  • Why Use Statistical Forecasting?
  • Average
  • Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC)
    • AutoES Flowchart
    • Automatic Forecast Level Selection (AutoSource)
    • The Forecast Level Selection Process
    • Determining the Best Source Level Forecast
    • Status and Scheduling
    • Using the System-Selected Forecast Level
  • Exponential Smoothing (ES) Forecasting Methods
    • Simple Exponential Smoothing
    • Croston's Method
    • Simple/Intermittent Exponential Smoothing
    • Holt Exponential Smoothing
    • Multiplicative Winters Exponential Smoothing
    • Additive Winters Exponential Smoothing
    • Seasonal Exponential Smoothing (SeasonalES)
    • Seasonal Regression
• Profile-Based Forecasting
  • Forecast Method
  • Profile-Based Method and New Items
• Bayesian Forecasting
  • Sales Plans versus Historic Data
  • Bayesian Algorithm
• LoadPlan Forecasting Method
• Copy Forecasting Method
• Causal (Promotional) Forecasting Method
• Causal Forecasting with Baselines
  • Causal Forecasting Using the Baseline Process
  • Causal Forecasting for Short-lifecycle Items
  • Causal Forecasting at the Daily Level
    • Example
  • Final Considerations Regarding Causal Forecasting

4 New Item & Locations Task

• New Item & Locations Workbooks, Steps, and Views
• New Item Administration Workbook
• New Item Settings Step
• Clone Adjustment Parameters View
  • Measures: Clone Adjustment Parameters View
• New Item Basic Parameters View
  • Measures: New Item Basic Parameters View
• New Item Review Workbook
• Review Aggregate Step
• Aggregate Level View
  • Measures: Aggregate Level View
• Review Ranking Step
• Attribute Match View
  • Measures: Attribute Match View
• Existing Item Thresholds Maintenance View
  • Measures: Existing Item Thresholds Maintenance View
• New Item Attribute Maintenance View
  • Measures: New Item Attribute Maintenance View
• New Item Attributes View
  • Measures: New Item Attributes View
• Similarity Score View
  • Measures: Similarity Score
• Review Detailed Step
• Item & Location Recommendation View
  • Measures: Item & Location Recommendation View
• Regenerate Like Item Assignment View
  • Measures: Regenerate Like Item Assignment View
• Like Item - Select and Approve Step
• Select and Approve View
  • Measures: Select and Approve View
• New Item Maintenance Workbook
• Review Ranking Step
• Attribute Match View
  • Measures: Attribute Match View
• New Item Attributes View
  • Measures: New Item Attributes View
• Similarity Score View
  • Measures: Similarity Score
• Ongoing Maintenance Step
• New Item Maintenance View
  • Measures: New Item Maintenance View
• Business Support Like Store Workbook
• Business Support Like Store Assignment Step
• Business Support Like Store Assignment View
  • Measures: Business Support Like Store Assignment View
• Forecaster Like Store Workbook
• Forecaster Like Store Assignment Step
• Forecaster Like Store Assignment View
  • Measures: Forecaster Like Store Assignment View

5 Preprocessing Administration Task

• Preprocess Administration Workbooks, Steps, and Views
• Preprocess Administration Workbook
• Preprocess Admin Step
  • Preprocess Admin View
    • Measures: Preprocess Admin View
• Preprocess Parameters Step
  • Preprocess Panel for Baseline View
    • Measures: Preprocessing Panel for Baseline View
  • Preprocess Panel for Causal View
    • Measures: Preprocessing Panel for Causal View
  • Preprocess Method Parameters for Baseline View
    • Measures: Preprocessing Methods Parameters for Baseline View
  • Preprocess Method Parameters Override for Baseline View
    • Measures: Preprocessing Method Parameters Override for Baseline View
  • Preprocess Method Parameters for Causal View
    • Measures: Preprocessing Method Parameters Override View
  • Preprocess Method Parameters Override for Causal View
    • Measures: Preprocessing Method Parameters Override View

6 Source Measure Maintenance Task

• Source Measure Maintenance Functionality
• Source Measure Maintenance Workbooks, Steps, and Views
• Source Measure Maintenance Workbook
• Preprocess Admin Step
  • Preprocessing Admin View
    • Measures: Preprocessing Admin View
• Preprocess Parameters Step
  • Preprocess Panel View
    • Measures: Preprocessing Panel (for Baseline or Causal) View
• Review Step
  • Source Maintenance View
    • Measures: Source Maintenance View
  • Source Maintenance Plot View
    • Measures: Source Maintenance Plot View
• Seasonal Profile for Causal Step
  • Seasonal Profile for Causal View

7 Forecast Scorecard Task

• Forecast Scorecard Workbook
• About Error Measure Views
• Forecast Errors - Low Level Views
  • Measures: Approved Forecast Errors - Low Level and Approved System Forecast Errors - Low Level
• Forecast Errors - Aggregate Level Views
  • Measures: Approved Forecast Errors - Aggregate Level and Approved Forecast Errors - Aggregate Level Views
• Actuals versus Forecasts View
  • Measures: Actuals versus Forecasts View

8 Forecast Administration Task

• Forecast Administration Task Components
  • Basic versus Advanced
  • Final versus Source Level Forecasts
  • Forecasting Methods Available in RDF
• Forecast Administration Workbook
• Forecast Administration Workbook: Basic Settings
  • Final Level View - Basic Settings
    • Measures: Final Level View - Basic Settings
  • Final and Source Level Parameters View - Basic Settings
    • Measures: Final and Source Level Parameters View - Basic Settings
• Forecast Administration Workbook: Advanced Settings
  • Causal Parameters View - Final Level
    • Measures: Causal Parameters View - Advanced Settings - Final Level
  • Causal Parameters View - Source Levels
    • Measures: Causal Parameters - Source Levels
  • Final Level Parameters View - Advanced Settings
    • Measures: Final Level Parameters View - Advanced Settings
  • Final and Source Level Parameters View - Advanced Settings
    • Measures: Source Level View - Advanced Settings
  • Regular Price Parameters View - Advanced Settings
    • Measures: Regular Price Parameters View- Advanced Settings
  • Promo Affinity Parameters View- Advanced Settings
    • Measures: Promo Affinity Parameters View- Advanced Settings
  • Demand Transference Parameters View- Advanced Settings
    • Measures: Demand Transference Parameters View- Advanced Settings
  • Enable Alert for Forecast Approval

9 Forecast Maintenance Task

• Forecast Maintenance Workbook
• Forecast Maintenance Workbook: Basic Final Level Parameters
  • Final and Source Level Views - Basic Final Level Parameters
    • Measures: Basic Final Level Parameters Views
    • Bayesian Alpha Override
• Forecast Maintenance Workbook: Advanced Final Level Parameters
  • Advanced Final Level Parameters View
    • Measures: Advanced Final Level Parameters View
  • Basic Source Level Parameters View
    • Measures: Basic Source Level Parameters View

10 Interactive Forecasting Task

• Improve Performance for the Interactive Forecasting Workbook
• Interactive Forecasting Workbook
• Forecasting Parameter View
  • Measures: Forecasting Parameter View
    • Additional Information about the Interactive Forecasting View Parameters
• Interactive Forecasting View
  • Measures: Interactive Forecasting View

11 Forecast Batch Run Task

• Running a Batch Forecast Manually
  • Before You Begin
  • Procedure
• Forecast Batch Run Workbook

12 Forecast Approval Task

• Forecast Approval Workbook
• Advanced Final Level View
  • Measures: Advanced Final Level View
• Final Level View
  • Measures: Final Level View
• Approval View
  • Measures: Approval View
• Valid Forecast Run View
  • Measures: Valid Forecast Run View
• Source Level View
  • Measures: Source Level View
• Final or Source System Parameters View
  • System Parameters View for Baseline Forecast
    • Measures: Final or Source System Parameters View for Baseline Forecast
  • Final or Source System Parameters for Causal Forecast View
    • Measures: Final or Source System Parameters View for Causal Forecast
• Forecast Approval Workbook Navigation
  • Enable Alerts for Approval
  • Workbook Formatting

13 Promote (Promotional Forecasting) Task

• About Promote
  • What Is Promotional Forecasting?
  • Comparison Between Promotional and Statistical Forecasting
  • Developing Promotional Forecast Methods
  • Promotional Forecasting Approach
  • Promotional Forecasting Terminology and Workflow
    • Examples of Promotion Events
  • About Floating Events
  • Procedures in Promotional Forecasting
    • Setting Up the System to Run a Promotional Forecast
    • Viewing a Forecast That Includes Promotion Effects
    • Viewing and Editing Promotion System-Calculated Effects
    • Promotion Simulation (What-if?) and Analysis
• Promote Tasks, Workbooks, and Views
• Promo Effectiveness/ Results Task
  • Promo Effectiveness/ Results Workbook
  • Promotion Model Type View
    • Measures: Promotion Model Type View
  • Promotion View
    • Measures: Promotion View
  • Promotion Forecast View
    • Measures: Promotion Forecast View
  • Promotion Parameters View
    • Measures: Promotion Parameters View
• Promo Planner Task
  • Promo Planner Workbook
  • Promotions View
    • Measures: Promotions View
• Promotion Management Task
  • Promotion Management Workbook
  • Promo Variable Model Type View
    • Measure: Promo Variable Model Type View
  • Promotion Enable View
    • Measures: Promotion Enable View
  • Accept Negative Lift View
    • Measures: Accept Negative Lift View
• Promo Effect Maintenance Task
  • Promo Effect Maintenance Workbook
  • Promotion Effect Parameters Views
    • Measures: Promotion Effect Parameters View
  • Final Promotion Effect Parameters View
    • Measures: Promotion Parameters View
• Floating Event Administration Task
  • Floating Events Admin Workbook
  • Floating Event Calendar Maintenance View
    • Measures: Floating Event Calendar Maintenance View
• Promotion Effectiveness Task
  • Promotion Effectiveness Workbook
  • Promotional Parameters Step
    • Default Causal Parameters View
    • Final Level Causal Parameters View
    • Pooling Levels Causal Parameters View
  • Promotional Forecast Step
    • Causal Forecast View
    • Promotion Model Type View
    • Promotion Calendar View

14 Alert Thresholds Task

• Defined Alerts
  • Forecast versus Recent Sales
  • Current Forecast versus Last Approved Forecast
  • Forecast Accuracy Alert
  • Forecast versus Last Year Sales
  • New Item Alert
  • Causal Peaks Alert
• Alert Thresholds Workbook
• Forecast Alert Default Parameters View
  • Measures: Forecast Alert Default Parameters View
• Forecast Alert Final Level Intersection Parameters View
  • Measures: Forecast Alert Final Level Intersection Parameters View

15 Grouping Management Task

• Grouping Management Workbook
• Review and Approve Group Assignments View
  • Measures: Review and Approve Group Assignments View

16 Forecast Delete Task

• Forecast Delete Wizard

17 Extra Week Administration Task

• Extra Week Administration Workbook
• Extra Week Indicator Setup View
  • Measures: Extra Week Indicator Setup View

18 Curve Task

• Curve Tasks and Wizards
• Profile Administration Task
  • Profile Administration Workbook
  • Profile Parameter View
    • Measures: Profile Parameter View
  • Profile and Source Level Intersection View
    • Measures: Profile and Source Level Intersection View
• Profile Approval Task
  • Profile Approval Workbook
  • Final Profile View
    • Measures: Final Profile View
  • Source Profile View
    • Measures: Source Profile View
  • Profile Approval View
    • Measures: Profile Approval View
• Profile Maintenance Task
  • Profile Maintenance Workbook
  • Profile Maintenance: Final Approval and Sourcing View
    • Measures: Final Approval and Sourcing View
  • Profile Maintenance: Final Training Window View
    • Measures: Final Training Window
• Run Batch Profile Task
  • Run Batch Profile Workbook

19 Grade Task

• Cluster Methods in Grade
  • Breakpoint
  • Index to Average
• Batch Neural Gas Algorithm (BaNG)
  • BaNG versus Breakpoint
• Grade in a Global Domain Environment
• Grade Tasks and Wizards
• Breakpoint Administration Task
  • Breakpoint Administration Workbook
  • Breakpoint Administration View
• Delete Cluster Run Task
  • Delete Cluster Run Wizard
• Cluster Review Task
  • Cluster Review Workbook
  • Cluster Input Summary View
    • Measures: Cluster Input Summary View
• Generate Breakpoint Grades Task
  • Generate Breakpoint Grades Wizard
• Generate Clusters Task
  • Generate Clusters Wizard

20 Cross Promotional Effects Module (CPEM)

• About Promotional Effects
  • Implementing CPEM
  • CPEM Workbooks and Wizards
• Effect Estimation Administration Task
  • Effect Estimation Administration Workbook
  • Default Parameters View
    • Measures: Default Parameters View
  • Cannibalization Parameter Override View
    • Measures: Cannibalization Parameter Override View
  • Halo Parameter Override View
    • Measures: Halo Parameter Override View
  • Halo Products Mapping View
    • Measures: Halo Products Mapping View
• Effect Estimation Review and Approval Task
  • Effect Estimation Review and Approval Workbook
  • Cannibalization Effects Drive View
    • Measures: Cannibalization Effects Drive View
  • Cannibalization Effects Percentage View
    • Measures: Cannibalization Effects Percentage View
  • Cannibalization Effects View
    • Measures: Cannibalization Effects View
  • Cannibalization History Data View
    • Measures: Cannibalization History Data View
  • Halo Effects Drive View
    • Measures: Halo Effects Drive View
  • Halo Effects Percentage View
    • Measures: Halo Effects Percentage View
  • Halo Effects View
    • Measures: Halo Effects View
  • Halo History Data View
    • Measures: Halo History Data View
  • Cannibalization Statistic Report View
    • Measures: Cannibalization Statistic Report View
  • Halo Statistic Report View
    • Measures: Halo Statistic Report View

A Appendix: Preprocessing

• Preprocessing Methods
  • Standard Median
  • Retail Median
  • Standard Exponential Smoothing
  • Lost Sales Standard Exponential Smoothing
  • Override
  • Increment
  • Forecast Sigma
  • Forecast Sigma Event
  • DePrice
  • Clear
  • No Filtering
• Preprocessing for Stock-outs
• Preprocessing for Outliers
• Preprocessing for Promotional Forecasting

Glossary