Chapter 26: Working with Projection Curves (WCRV)

Purpose: Use the Work with Projection Curves function to create and change a projection curve. A projection curve defines the number of units ordered that you expect to receive over a period of time, allowing you to project the future activity of an offer, item class, or item/SKU. The system uses the current progress of the curve and the actual demand to project the anticipated demand and inventory requirements for the rest of the curve. The system uses this information in the calculations on the Inventory Status & Projection Report (ISRP).

For example, you could set up a curve based on receiving 5% of your orders within the first week of an offer, with the percentage rising to 15% over the next couple of weeks. If you receive an unexpectedly large number of orders during the first week, then you might need to order more inventory sooner than you had anticipated to meet the expected demand.

Assigning a curve: You can assign a curve at the SKU/offer, item/offer, item class, or offer level. When you generate the Inventory Status & Projection Report (ISRP), the system searches for a curve starting at the SKU/offer level and working up, using the first curve it finds to project demand and inventory requirements for the item.

Creating a curve: You can create a curve by simply entering in the anticipated percentage for each period. You can also create a curve based on the actual demand over all periods for an existing offer, or for an item class or item within an offer; however, once you create the curve, you can edit the percentages for each period.

For more information: See:

Performing Initial Item Entry (MITM) for information on assigning a curve to an item/offer or SKU/offer

Working with Item Classes (WICL) for information on assigning a curve to an item class

Working with Offers (WOFR) for information on assigning a curve to an offer

In this chapter:

Work with Projection Curves Screen

Create Projection Curve Screen

Change Curve Screen

Display Projection Curves Screen

Create Curve Based on Actuals Screen

Creating the Curve Based on Actual Demand

Work with Projection Curves Screen

How to display this screen: Enter WCRV in the Fast Path field at the top of any menu or select Work with Projection Curve from a menu.

FOR0003 DISPLAY Work with Projection Curves 6/13/02 11:15:21

EZK Mail Order

Opt Curve Description

Type options, press Enter.

2=Change 4=Delete 5=Display

1 SHORT CURVE

2 40-WEEK CURVE

3 30-WEEK CURVE

4 35-WEEK CURVE

5 NO ACTIVITY FIRST 2 WEEKS

6 SIX WEEKS

7 HOLIDAY SEASON

8 10-WEEK CURVE

9 15-WEEK CURVE

12 20-WEEK CURVE

30 52-WEEK CURVE +

F3=Exit F6=Create F7=Create from actuals F12=Cancel F21=Print list

F24=Select company

Field

Description

Curve

A code representing the projection curve.

Numeric, 3 positions; optional.

Description

The description of the projection curve.

Alphanumeric, 30 positions; optional.

Screen Option

Procedure

Create a projection curve by entering all percentages

Press F6 to advance to the Create Projection Curve Screen.

Create a projection curve based on actual demand for an offer

Press F7 to advance to the Create Curve Based on Actuals Screen.

Change a projection curve

Enter 2 next to a curve to advance to the Change Curve Screen.

Delete a projection curve

Enter 4 next to a curve to delete it.

Display a projection curve

Enter 5 next to a curve to advance to the Display Projection Curves Screen.

Create Projection Curve Screen

Purpose: To create a projection curve, press F6 on the Work with Projection Curves Screen.

Note: You can also create a projection curve based on the actual demand for an offer, or for an item class or item within an offer, at the Create Curve Based on Actuals Screen.

FOR0005 ENTER Create Projection Curve 3/09/94 10:36:43

CommercialWare

 

 

 

 

 

 

Curve . . . . ___

Description . __________________________

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

F3=Exit F12=Cancel

Field

Description

Curve

A unique code that identifies the projection curve.

Numeric, 3 positions; required.

Description

A description of the projection curve.

Alphanumeric, 30 positions; required.

Change Curve Screen

How to display this screen: Complete the Create Projection Curve Screen, or enter 2 next to a curve at the Work with Projection Curves Screen.

FCR0002 OPEN Change Curve 3/09/94 10:57:46

CommercialWare

 

Curve 5 SUMMER MAILING

 

Curve type . . . _

Total Week: 52

Total Percentage: 100.00

 

% Comp Total %

1 5.00 5.00

2 5.00 10.00

3 10.00 20.00

4 10.00 30.00

5 10.00 40.00

6 15.00 55.00

7 15.00 70.00

8 15.00 85.00 +

 

 

F3=Exit F12=Cancel

Field

Description

Curve

A unique code that identifies the projection curve, and the description of the curve.

(Curve) Numeric, 3 positions; display-only.

(Description) 30 positions; display-only.

Curve type

A user-defined code that can be used to group projection curves. You can use the curve type to override the curve completion percentage on the Inventory Status & Projection Report (ISRP).

Alphanumeric, 1 position; optional.

Total week

The number of forecasting periods that the system will store. This number is defined in the System Control file (# of Forecasting Periods (B98)).

Example: If the number of days in your forecasting period is 7, the number of forecasting periods you could store would be 52.

Numeric, 2 positions; display-only.

Total percentage

This field shows the sum of percentages for all periods that have been assigned a response percentage. This number changes when you add or change a percentage for a period.

Note: The total percentage must equal 100 percent before you can exit this screen.

Numeric, 3 positions; display-only.

% Comp

The percentage of units ordered that you expect to receive during this period.

If you advanced to this screen from the Create Curve Based on Actuals Screen, this percentage is based on the performance of the offer, item class, or item that you selected; however, you can override the default.

Numeric, 5 positions with a 2-place decimal; required.

Total %

The accumulated percentage of the % Comp field for each period up to and including this period. The total must equal 100 percent before you can exit this screen.

Numeric, 5 positions with a 2-place decimal; display-only.

Display Projection Curves Screen

Display: Enter 5 next to a projection curve at the Work with Projection Curves Screen to advance to the Display Curve screen. You cannot change any of the fields on this screen. For field descriptions, see Create Projection Curve Screen.

Create Curve Based on Actuals Screen

Purpose: Use this screen to create a new projection curve based on the order quantities for:

• an offer, or

• an item class within an offer, or

• an item/SKU within an offer

The system uses the history stored in the Item/SKU/Offer file (FCISOF) to calculate the curve percentages. Once the system produces the calculation, you can use the Change Curve Screen to change the percentages before saving the curve.

Note: You can also create a projection curve by entering all percentages at the Create Projection Curve Screen.

How to display this screen: Press F7 at the Work with Projection Curves Screen.

FCR0208 ENTER Create Curve Based On Actuals 6/05/02 12:58:38

EZK Mail Order

Curve . . . . . .

Description . . .

Type . . . . . . .

Create curve based on:

Offer Number . . .

And

Item class . . . . OR Item/SKU . . . .

F3=Exit F12=Cancel

Field

Description

Curve

A unique code that identifies the projection curve, which is a completion percentage for a forecasting period. Use this field to enter the curve code that you are creating based on actual performance.

Numeric, 3 positions; required.

Description

The description of the curve you are creating.

Alphanumeric, 30 positions; required.

Type

A user-defined code that can be used to group projection curves. You can use the curve type to override the curve completion percentage on the Inventory Status & Projection Report (ISRP).

Alphanumeric, 1 position; optional.

Offer

The offer whose actual demand will form the basis of the curve that you are creating. You cannot enter an offer that does not yet have any orders; the system displays an error message:

Offer must have a first order date.

However, you can enter an offer that has not yet completed its curve. In this situation, the system creates a curve that uses the total orders to date as 100% of the projected orders. To create a more accurate curve, you should use an offer that has completed its curve as a model. See Creating the Curve Based on Actual Demand for examples.

Alphanumeric, 3 positions; required.

Item class

The item class whose actual demand within the offer will form the basis of the curve.

Note: You cannot enter both an item class and an item.

You cannot enter a class that does not yet have any orders in the offer; the system displays an error message:

No history exists for this item class and offer.

However, you can enter a class that has not yet completed its curve for the offer. In this situation, the system creates a curve that uses the total orders to date as 100% of the projected orders. To create a more accurate curve, you should use an class that has completed its curve as a model. See Creating the Curve Based on Actual Demand for examples.

Alphanumeric, 3 positions; optional.

Item/SKU

The item/SKU whose actual demand within the offer will form the basis of the curve. The SKU code is required if the item has SKUs.

Note: You cannot enter both an item class and an item.

You cannot enter an item that does not yet have any orders in the offer; the system displays an error message:

No history exists for this item and offer.

However, you can enter an item that has not yet completed its curve for the offer. In this situation, the system creates a curve that uses the total orders to date as 100% of the projected orders. To create a more accurate curve, you should use an item/offer that has completed its curve as a model. See Creating the Curve Based on Actual Demand for examples.

Item: alphanumeric, 12 positions; optional.

SKU: alphanumeric, one 14-position field (full SKU) or three 4-position fields (split SKU); required if the item has SKUs.

Creating the Curve Based on Actual Demand

The system uses the Quantity ordered from the Item/SKU/Offer file to calculate a curve based on actual demand: the Quantity ordered for all periods within the offer is added together, and then the Quantity ordered for each period is divided by the result. For example, actual orders for an offer and its items produce curves as follows:

Period

Item

Quantity Ordered

Item % Complete

(quantity for this week / total quantity ordered for item)

Total Offer/ Period

Offer % Complete

(quantity this week / total quantity ordered for offer)

Week 1

AB100

23

27.71% (23 / 83 total this item)

84

23.08%

(84 / 364)

CD200

45

20% (45 / 225)

EF300

16

28.57% (16 / 56)

Week 2

AB100

40

48.19% (40 / 83)

190

52.20%

(190 / 364)

CD200

120

53.33% (120 / 225)

EF300

30

53.57 (30 / 56)

Week 3

AB100

20 (83 total)

24.10% (20 / 83)

90

(364 total)

24.73%

(90 / 364)

CD200

60 (225 total)

26.67% (60 / 225)

EF300

10 (56 total)

17.86% (10 / 56)

Item class percentages are calculated similarly to items and offers: that is, the system adds all items within the class and offer together to determine the total for the period and entire curve.

Note: The percentages in the sample table above may not add up to 100.00% exactly due to rounding; however, if the total of the % complete fields for the generated curve would not equal 100.00%, the system adjusts the % complete in the last period with order activity, if necessary, to correct any discrepancy caused by the rounding.

How are periods determined? The system uses the Forecasting Values (C00) defined in the System Control file to determine when periods begin and end:

# of Days in Forecasting Period (B96)

# of Forecasting Periods (B98)

First Day of a Forecasting Period (B99)

For example, the forecasting period for your company is a week. The # of days in forecasting period = 7; the # of forecasting periods = 52; and the First day of a forecasting period = MON. If June 1 falls on a Monday, then the forecasting period includes activity from June 1 through June 7; June 8 starts the next forecasting period.

The system checks the Date of first order for the offer to determine when to start the first period.

How is order quantity determined? The system update the quantity for each unit of the item/SKU that a customer orders in order entry. The quantity is reduced when the item/SKU is canceled with a cancel reason whose Reduce? (Reduce demand?) flag is set to Y. However, the quantity is not reduced by additions or exchanges in order maintenance if the Update Demand for Order Maintenance Transactions (C72) system control value is set to N.

If the offer is not yet complete: The system can use only the existing data for the offer; as a result, if you are still taking orders for the offer, the curve produced will be skewed.

If the offer history exceeds the number of forecasting periods: If the history for the offer extends over more periods than defined in the # of Forecasting Periods (B98) system control value, the system combines all extra periods into the last forecasting period in the curve. For example, if the maximum number of forecasting periods in your company is 52, and the offer activity extends over 54 weeks, the system includes the activity from the last two weeks in forecasting period 52.

MK03_02 CWDirect 18.0 August 2015 OTN