Bill Forecast
The Bill Forecast module provides a projection of how much the business customer could spend on their utility bill if they continue their spending behavior through the end of the billing period. The module can also include personalized threshold information, and can enable customers to access and update their threshold.
If rates are not modeled, the email includes a usage forecast instead of a cost forecast. It is possible for some business customers at a utility to see cost information in their forecast, while others see usage information.
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Requirements
Same as listed in the product-wide requirements.
Limitations
No Rates: Users without modeled rates are only able to set a usage threshold.
Multiple Accounts: The personalized threshold experience varies depending on what kind of accounts the customer has.
The combined usage or cost of all fuel/resource types included in the alert must meet the threshold to trigger the alert. For example, if the customer has electric and gas service, and has set a threshold of $100, the combined cost for electric and gas must be $100 or greater to trigger the alert.
User Experience
The Bill Forecast module shows the business customer a projection of their energy usage, based on their consumption trends.
Find below an example of the Bill Forecast module, followed by a description of its components:
Forecast Statement: The forecast amount is an estimate, not an exact amount, and is based on the estimated length of the bill. By default the cost values are rounded to the nearest whole dollar. For example, "Your bill is projected to be $[XX]."
Personal Threshold Insight Statement: Below the forecast is an insight about how much more the projected bill could cost compared to the cost or usage-threshold. "That's higher than the bill threshold you set." Note that this statement appears only if the customer has set their personal threshold.
Change Your Threshold Link: Below the insight statement is a link that customers can use to change their threshold (if that feature is made available by the utility). The personalized threshold allows the customer to set a minimum threshold that their projected energy use or bill must reach before they receive a high bill alert.
When a threshold is set, the alert triggers only when cost or usage is greater than the set threshold. Utilities can also implement their own preference center, and provide access to customers using APIs. For additional information, see Oracle Utilities REST API for Digital Self Service - Energy Management.
Depending on the characteristics of a customer's accounts, the customer is provided one of the following options to define a personalized threshold. After the customer sets their threshold, when they receive an alert the module reminds them they set a threshold, and provides a link to their account where they can modify the threshold.
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Cost threshold: Customers with modeled rates can set a dollar threshold range of $1 - $100,000,000. When an absolute dollar threshold is set, the alert triggers only when cost is greater than the set dollar-threshold. For example, the customer could set their threshold to send the alert only if their bill exceeds $100. If the customer does not set a personalized cost threshold, they will receive alerts only when they exceed the combined usage and cost threshold set by the utility. The recommended and default utility threshold is 30 percent.
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Usage threshold: Customers without modeled rates can set a usage threshold percentage range of zero to 1000 percent greater than the same bill the previous year. For example, the user could set their threshold to send the alert only if their usage is at least 25 percent greater than the same bill period the previous year. The default usage-threshold value is 30 percent. The usage-based threshold is provided to customers with at least one active account that does not have modeled rates.
User Experience Variations
This section describes the user experience variations in the Bill Forecast module.
Personal Threshold Not Set
When the utility has a default utility-wide threshold, but the customer has not yet set up their own personal threshold, the bill forecast message changes to include a prominent button with the text "CHANGE YOUR THRESHOLD" to prompt users to set their own personal threshold.
Personal Threshold Not Available
If the utility does not implement the personal threshold, all language regarding the customer's personal threshold, and all links or buttons directing customers to set or change the threshold are removed from the message.
Usage
The message can provide a usage forecast rather than a forecasted amount. The usage forecast is shown as a percentage. For example, "Your energy use is projected to be 10% higher this billing period".
Projected Range
Utilities can display a forecast cost range rather than a specific cost value for the projected bill. If you choose to display a range, you do so by specify the range percentage. By default, the range is set to 0 (zero), and therefore, a range is not displayed. If you set the range to 15%, for example, and a customer's projected bill is $100, the range would display as $100-$115.
Display Billing Period Date Range
You can set the Bill Forecast module to display the bill period date range associated with the forecast. The date range appears at the top of the module when set to display. By default, the date range is not displayed.
Calculations
At a high level, the bill forecast calculation involves the following steps:
- Calculate the baseline cost and energy values using the customer's bills from the previous year.
- Estimate the customer's billing period end date.
- Calculate how much energy the customer has used to date.
- Take the customer's energy use and project it forward to the estimated billing period end date.
- Convert the resulting energy use values to cost values, based on the customer's rate plan. The output is an actual cost value (to date) and a projected cost value (going forward). Note that the projected cost can also be displayed as a cost range, depending on the module configuration.